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Our experts are back again for the final day of the Bundesliga season, spotting four smart picks for a Bundesliga accumulator. This stands alongside our European acca tips and European football predictions. You can also browse our new both teams to score tips, player shot on target tips and the rest of our expert football betting tips.
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⚖️ The Permutations
At the top, Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen wrapped up their first ever Bundesliga title weeks ago, but have maintained their unbeaten record to the 33-game stage. If they avoid defeat at home to Augsburg then they will go down in history as the first ever unbeaten Bundesliga club across an entire season.
Another movement in the top five could be Stuttgart overtaking Bayern for second place. Stuttgart would have to win at home to Gladbach and with Bayern losing at Hoffenheim for this to happen.
The remaining Champions League places will go to RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund.
Frankfurt, Hoffenheim, and Freiburg are fighting it out for lesser European qualification. Frankfurt currently sit in sixth, with a Europa League spot. If they get any points against Leipzig, they will remain in sixth. A loss opens the door for Hoffenheim who will need to beat Bayern and overturn a goal difference of three to take sixth.
If Hoffenheim don’t win against Bayern, and Freiburg beat Union Berlin away from home, then they go seventh and take that , current, Europa Conference League place.
It should be noted as well that in the event Leverkusen win the DFB Pokal, seventh place will get a Europa League spot, with eighth going into the Conference League play-offs.
In the event Dortmund win the Champions League and Leverkusen win the DFB, sixth will get the Champions League spot, seventh Europa League, and eighth will get a spot in the Conference League play-offs.
Down at the bottom, Darmstadt were relegated a while ago, but Koln currently sit 17th and in the other automatic relegation spot. It is possible for them to escape on the final day if they can beat Heidenheim at home, and overturn a goal difference of three over Union Berlin, who we know are hosting Europe-chasing Freiburg.
Union are in the relegation play-off spot, but can overtake Mainz and/or Bochum if they beat Freiburg. Mainz need a draw at Wolfsburg to make themselves safe and the same will be enough for Bochum at Werder.
Defeat for either Mainz or Bochum and a Union win would see Union escape and if Mainz better Bochum’s result then it’ll be 14th placed Bochum rather than 15th placed Mainz who drop into the relegation play-off spot.
📊 The Data
The final day offers some interesting trends.
What the Bundesliga has been good for is keeping as much of the league competitive all the way to the 34th and final round of matches. While the title has been sewn up in seven of the nine seasons studied, there have been 46 matches taking place with something riding on the result, compared to only 26 with nothing on the result, a 64%-36% split.
The result of this competitiveness is that there is a noticeable lack of thrashings in the last few seasons. In some leagues there are often a few matches that can go heavily one way, but there has only been one match that covered the -3 handicap over the last three years.
There has been a general lack of goals in the last couple of seasons as well, but it is worth bearing in mind that every single Bundesliga match in 2023 had something riding on it, which likely had an effect.
If one is searching for goals, there isn’t really much difference in the averages of teams that are playing for something vs those with nothing to play for.
However, it is worth noting that every single home team scored on the final day when they had nothing to play for, except Schalke in 2019. BTTS also landed in 81% of matches where nothing was on the line.
Saturday’s Bundesliga Final Day Accumulator Tips
Stuttgart v Monchengladbach
Our first tip of the day in the Bundesliga comes in Stuttgart v Monchengladbach.
There is another trend which is strong on the final day, which is that when neither team has anything on the line, the home teams have a greater win percentage than normal.
The usual Bundesliga home win percentage in 2023/24 is 43%, but the final day of the season when nothing is on the line sees the home team win over 65% of the matches. It is a fairly small sample size of 26 matches, but it seems a significant increase.
Stuttgart technically do have something to play for, if attempting to overtake Bayern for second place in the Bundesliga is enough for increased motivation. Stuttgart have had a great season, this time last season they were involved in the relegation battle, indeed, they finished in 16th and had to win the relegation play-off to stay in the division.
Their home record has been exceptionally strong, winning 12 out of 16, and taking 39 points from a possible 48 at home. Meanwhile, Gladbach have had a disappointing season and will probably be glad to be able to reset and go again next season. They have won only 13 points on the road all season, winning twice and drawing seven times.
Leverkusen v Augsburg
Secondly, we’re stopping in with the newly-crowned champions for Leverkusen v Augsburg.
The champions are one game away from history. No team has ever gone unbeaten in the Bundesliga since it formed, and, for a team winning their first ever Bundesliga crown, it is a simply incredible achievement.
There may be some concern that either the pressure could get to Xabi Alonso’s team, or that the potential treble of the DFB-Pokal and Europa League could lead to some rotation or players taking their eye off the ball, but one suspects that Alonso and his team will really want this unbeaten record.
The number of late goals that they have scored over the season certainly suggests that they are determined to keep the record going. The late equaliser against Roma in the Europa League semi-final by Josip Stanišić was the 17th time that Leverkusen have scored in the 90th minute or later this season.
The 5-0 victory over Bochum last Sunday also suggests that the pressure is not getting to them, they had also scored five the previous Sunday at Frankfurt.
Augsburg still may have an opportunity to snatch the final European spot given the potential permutations if Leverkusen win the DFB-Pokal and Dortmund the Champions League. However, the motivation for them is simply to spoil, and this may not be enough, regardless of the obvious quality disparity, to get anything out of the game.
Union Berlin v Freiburg
Next up it’s off to the capital, for Union Berlin v Freiburg.
This match falls within the trend of both teams needing something from the match.
This scenario has occurred 12 times in the last nine seasons, and both teams have scored in seven of the 12, home teams have also won seven of these 12.
Union are currently sitting in 16th and their need for a win is great as three points will give them a strong chance of escaping the relegation play-off. Freiburg can qualify for Europe though, but they also need a win, a draw will not do for either team.
This sets up great conditions for goals and both teams to score, unless, the teams that they are trying to overtake begin winning early as well, which is the main risk with this bet.
However, Union matches have had a lot of goals of late, with five against Koln, seven against Bochum, and six against Bayern. There was a 0-0 at Gladbach sandwiched between those matches, but, as we know, Union will have to score here to avoid the play-off.
Freiburg are a little less goal-heavy, but they have scored in 11 of their last 12 Bundesliga matches, and given their excellent Europa League run this season, they will surely be keen to qualify for Europe once again.
Frankfurt v RB Leipzig
The final tip from the final day of the Bundesliga is for Frankfurt v RB Leipzig.
Frankfurt need something from this match to protect their sixth place from Hoffenheim, allowing them qualification into the Europa League, and possibly even the Champions League, rather than the Conference League.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean that they have to score, as a 0-0 would do, opponents RB Leipzig have been full of goals all season, with 75 scored in 33 matches. Indeed, BTTS has landed in each of Leipzig’s last four matches, and in each of their last 11 away Bundesliga matches.
Frankfurt have also had BTTS land in each of their last four Bundesliga matches. They have also only failed to score at home twice all season.
We also have the trend of home teams winning their final matches on our side in terms of Frankfurt getting the goal that they need. Home teams win 57% of the matches on the final day, according to the last nine seasons, 14% above the season average.
Of all final day matches over the last nine seasons, 71% have seen both teams score, and given the recent form of both teams, this looks a strong bet.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer