Bank Holiday Monday features an interesting clash at Pride Park between two teams at either end of the table who are fighting totally different battles, with some great opportunities for a Bet Builder. West Brom are in the hunt for promotion yet again, and a swift return to the Premier League after last season saw Sam Allardyce fall to the first relegation of his managerial career. Meanwhile, Derby’s financial woes have seen the club docked an extraordinary 21 points, to leave them 17 points adrift as we approach the half-way stage of the season. Impressively Derby are now on 4 points, and moving away from the negatives, but how long the players can keep this going when they will be all too aware that without the deductions that were not their fault, they would be on 25 points, 4 points and 3 places clear of the drop zone.

Wayne Rooney has done a fine job at Derby and although since taking four points from the current top two, Fulham and Bournemouth the team have suffered two defeats before managing to squeeze out a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool. Valerien Ismael did a remarkable job at Barnsley last season, and although he may not be getting the best from his side this time out, he is keeping them well in the hunt for automatic promotion, and comfortably within the play-offs. They have the best defensive record in the league, and with a top tier striker who could finish more clinically, you’d have to imagine they’d be pushing Fulham all the way this season. They have seen three 0-0 draws in their last 5, and just scoring once in each of these games would have them two points clear at the top of the table.

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Derby County v West Bromwich Albion Bet Builder Tips & Predictions

West Bromwich Albion to Win

West Brom’s away record is not the best, and a lack of goals in their recent games may lead some to believe that this fixture could prove difficult, however, Derby are dealing with the aftermath of COVID sweeping through their squad, and will be missing a number of players, many of whom have featured in 10 or more of their 23 fixtures this season. A few players could be back for Monday, but it is unlikely they will have trained and therefore I would expect Ebosele, Morrison, Roos and Byrne to all be missing. As such, Derby (who had their last game postponed) will not be at full strength, while the visitors are totally without any COVID concerns of their own. West Brom will know they need to take full advantage when they consider the recent wobbles of both Fulham and Bournemouth above them, and the surging form of third-placed Blackburn who seem to be on a charge right now.

I fully expect West Brom to capitalise to ensure they can continue their pursuit of the league leaders and automatic promotion. Derby will think of this game as something of a free hit, and this is totally justified, not just by their respective positions in the league but also by quality of their squads and by circumstance. It will not likely be a rout of the Rams, but I would expect a relatively comfortable win for Ismael’s men.

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Jake Livermore to be Carded

The Baggies captain has more cards than anyone else in the squad, with only four players in the entire league having more than his six yellow cards. Livermore commits 2.09 fouls per 90, whilst playing the vast majority of available minutes for West Brom this season. He also stands at 0.35 yellow cards per 90, and whilst four of his teammates have higher numbers per 90, they have also played a combined 1,835 minutes, whereas Livermore has featured in 1,545 single-handedly, therefore I would back him as the more reliable option, both in terms of being on the pitch to receive a booking, and also the regularity with which he is picking up bookings. Despite other teammates making more fouls in a game, referees seem to be more willing to penalise Livermore, whether this is a result of his reputation as a combative presence in midfield, or merely that he makes more egregious fouls, he is my top pick for a card in this fixture.

With the referee being James Linington, amongst the most card-happy in the league, cards seem a good place to look for some value in a Bet Builder. He has not awarded fewer than two in 10 games in the league this year, and now averages almost 5 cards per game, at 4.91. He also presided over a ridiculous fixture at the City Ground in which 9 players saw their names jotted down in the Linington’s notebook, and more of the same would be welcome here for anyone joining in the fun with this Bet Builder.

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Graeme Shinnie to be Carded

With a referee as prone to cautions as Linington on this one, it would be silly not to take the opportunity to add another card selection, and this time I’d like to focus on the home side. Derby’s Shinnie also has a poor disciplinary record, with his six yellows being level with Livermore, and amongst the worst in the division. While his 1.24 fouls per game is a fair bit below Livermore’s 2.09, the fact he has still managed to pick up six cards, at a similarly high rate of 0.3 per 90 shows that Shinnie’s fouls tend to be more impactful and therefore more likely to see him being booked. The Scottish defensive-midfielder and occasional centre-back has started every game for Derby in the Championship this year bar one and has completed the full 90 in all but three of 21 starts in the league.

Guaranteed to be on the pitch from the start, and likely to feature until the very end, Shinnie is a great option for those looking for well-priced card bets in this fixture, and as I’ve made clear, there is no reason to expect cards not to be flying in this one. We can expect to see a Derby side who have not played in two weeks coming up against promotion chasers who will be keen to pick up maximum points from the league’s bottom-side, and a referee who will happily oblige when players step over the line, what’s not to like about this one?

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Karlan Grant to have 1+ Shots on Target

While teammate Robinson does score more highly than Grant for Shots on Target per 90 minutes, Grant’s finds the target with a massive 47.3% of his 2.78 Shots taken per 90 minutes, a huge increase over Robinson’s much less impressive 36.5% from 3.74. On just three occasions in his last 12 starts for the Baggies, Grant has failed to muster a shot on target, something which Robinson has failed to do six times over the same period. These three games included a 3-0 defeat away at Fulham, a poor team performance away at Huddersfield which saw them fall to a 1-0 loss, and a fairly drab 0-0 against Nottingham Forest, in which Grant should probably have done better with one of his three shots on goal, none of which are giving me any reason to believe he is not likely to find the target in this one.

Grant also has the advantage over his fellow forward as he is much more likely to remain on the pitch for the full 90 minutes, whereas Robinson does not always start and even when he does is usually withdrawn at some point through the match, lasting the full 90 minutes on just four occasions in the league this season, providing Grant with more opportunities to land a Shot on Target than Robinson. Overall, if you are looking at the Shots on Target market in this fixture, I would look no further than Grant, nobody else seems especially likely to land a Shot on Target selection, and nobody is priced up poorly enough to make them worth a punt either.  

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Back my 16/1 Derby County v West Bromwich Albion Bet Builder below ⬇️

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Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on my 16/1 Derby County v West Bromwich Albion Bet Builder. Here are the two possible outcomes:

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *

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Derby County v West Bromwich Albion Cheat Sheet

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *

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How to watch Derby County v West Bromwich Albion in the English Championship

📅   When is Derby County v West Bromwich Albion? / Monday, 27 December 2021, 15:00
🏟   Where is Derby County v West Bromwich Albion? / Pride Park (Derby)
📺   What TV Channel is Derby County v West Bromwich Albion? / Sky Sports Football & Sky Sports Main Event
📱   Online Live Streaming for Derby County v West Bromwich Albion? / bet365
🟨   …And who is the referee for Derby County v West Bromwich Albion? / James Linington 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿