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Everton v Newcastle
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Kick Off: Saturday 5th October at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Everton host Newcastle at Goodison Park in what could be a much tighter affair than many expect. Neither side has had a glowing start to the season although Newcaste’s eleven points are far superior to Everton’s four. That said, all four of those points have come in their last two games including an impressive comeback win over Crystal Palace most recently.
⭐ Everton v Newcastle Best Bets
Guimaraes has been a longstanding asset in the fouls-drawn market with the Brazilian seemingly making a nuisance of himself no matter the game. Newcastle’s elusive midfielder is the most fouled player in the Premier League this season, having drawn 24 fouls in just six matches.
Across this run, he’s won at least three fouls in every game except for Newcastle’s recent encounter with Manchester City, where he still earned two. Given that Newcastle held only 37% possession and Manchester City average just seven fouls per game, this can easily be overlooked as an anomaly.
Last season he drew a ludicrous 108 fouls over the course of the league season, putting him 15 clear of Jordan Ayew who drew the second most.
🔍 Everton v Newcastle Players to Watch
⚫ Anthony Gordon
Coming up against his boyhood-club, it’d simply be wrong to not mention Anthony Gordon here. There are a few markets that might be of interest surrounding him but we’ve identified backing him to draw 2+ fouls as having the most value.
So far this season, Gordon has averaged 3.35 fouls won per 90, a step up from his still impressive 2.08 average last season. Over that period he’s drawn at least two fouls In each of his six games.
Everton, on the other hand, have committed 12 or more fouls in their last three games and there’s no love lost between the two parties after Gordon came under fire due to his overly exuberant celebrations following Newvastle’s 4-1 battering of Everton in April 2023.
🔵 Jesper Lindstrøm
Another intriguing player to watch will be Jesper Lindstrøm who Everton persuaded to join on loan from Napoli over the summer.
Backing him to take 2+ shots looks like pretty safe value when you consider his form and Newcastle’s defence. Although he hasn’t clocked too much game time, the Danish international has averaged 3.04 shots per 90 in the league, also firing off two against Southampton in the Carabao Cup.
We haven’t seen a whole lot of him in the last few years but in his six hours of football at Napoli last season he averaged a shot every 30 minutes. Previous to that he clocked 1700 minutes for Eintracht Frankfurt where he averaged 2.39 shots per game in the Bundesliga.
📂 Everton v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
Cheat Sheet Pending…
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We also offer both teams to score tips, plus bet builder focused picks like our card betting tips, player shots on target tips, and fouls betting predictions, alongside Premier League anytime goalscorer predictions.
💻 Everton v Newcastle Form and Tactics
Everton have been plagued with defensive errors and sloppy buildup this season and it’s clear to see how dearly they miss Amadou Onana.
Similarly to Arsenal with Havertz, Onana was responsible for being on the receiving end of long balls, taking them down and bypassing the opposition press. This was particularly effective because of his height (6’5”) and physicality.
Sean Dyche has persisted with his attempt to instil effective zonal marking but it doesn’t seem to be working with Everton having conceded seven of their fifteen goals from crosses or long balls. This is another area where the Belgian’s absence is felt with The Toffee’s yet to find an adequate replacement.
Although Newcastle’s seven goals conceded imply a much stronger defence compared to Everton’s, they have actually only conceded 0.91 xGa more than their opposition, which renders them the 7th worst defence in the league according to that metric.
They aim to maintain a compact shape, focussing instead on rapid transitions, utilising their wide players and fullbacks to create overloads on the flanks whilst Bruno Guimaraes orchestrates play from the midfield.
Interestingly they seem to fare better with less possession, recording wins against Southampton (23%) and Tottenham (35%) as well as a draw with Man City (38%) when allowing the opposition most of the ball. Comparatively, their worst results of the season both came when dominating over 60% of possession against Bournemouth and Fulham.
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🏁 Everton v Newcastle Ref Watch
- Craig Pawson has been appointed to referee this clash in what will only be his fifth match of the season.
- Over that period he’s averaged 25.5 fouls per game, just above his 23.35 career average.
- Those are some pretty impressive figures but it’s worth noting his threshold for giving a card seems to be a bit higher resulting in a 3.71 per 90 average.
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
Our guide on how to use a Cheat Sheet is the perfect way to get involved with our bet builder stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on the Premier League.
We recommend the best betting sites for accumulators, top bet builder sites, and the best free bet offers and weekly free bet clubs, all to ensure you bet smarter when backing our tips with the best UK sports betting sites.
Expert guides, such as this one, on xG in football, are also available to help you up your punting game, while you should also check out our list of the best Premier League free bet offers.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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