AFC Wimbledon have performed above all expectations so far in League One, 6th in the table with over a third of the season gone. The underlying numbers are lagging somewhat, suggesting that The Dons have collected six more points than expected, but that would still see them comfortably in the top half of League One.

They host a Gateshead side who are 57 places below them in the footballing pyramid, currently 15th in the National League after just missing out on the play-offs last term by a single point. They’re winless in their last three, all against bottom half opposition.

Johnnie Jackson’s side protect their goal better than most, their goalkeeper has made the second fewest saves in League One thus far. I cannot see them conceding a goal against a National League side, therefore a single goal should be enough to see through to Round Two.

This will be Reading’s first game under Leam Richardson, the former Wigan manager who was appointed this week, following the departure of Noel Hunt. Currently 19th in the league and paying the price for overachievement last year, Reading’s performances are in line with what the squad is capable of, in my opinion, so it will be interesting to see what Richardson can achieve.

Their current level should be enough to see off Carlisle in any case, though Carlisle have started the second as would have been expected, currently 3rd in the table after relegation from the EFL last term. Regan Linney seems to be their dangerman, he has 11 in 16 games for the Cumbrians.

Richardson will want to get his reign off to a positive start, so a full strength Royals side could be sent out here to do the job.

If you viewed the League One table on a points per game basis, Stevenage would currently be top of the tree, with 26 from their 12 league games so far. Over 60% of those points have been earned at Broadhall Way, having one five and drawn one of six encounters in the league.

The xG figures are never kind to Stevenage, currently showing an overachievement of 10 points, but that is because their way of playing relies on keeping the opposition out and mostly relying on set pieces for their goals. They have scored eight from dead balls, two more than the next best League One side.

Their opponents for this one are Chesterfield, who occupy the last League Two play-off spot at present after a mixed start, but with no fourth tier side pulling away from the rest, they are only three points off the top, despite failing to win more games than they have won.

Their underlying numbers are not too positive, ranked 15th in FotMOB’s xG table, but due to the quality individuals they have in attack, they have managed to score nine more goals than their xG created.

Stevenage should have too much for The Spireites here, who lost to League One side Mansfield in the EFL Cup, despite The Stags fielding a rotated 11.

Despite worrying signs of owner interference and a very underwhelming managerial appointment in the Summer, Notts County are looking good of late, winning five of their last seven games in all competitions.

According to NTT20’s newly released xG tables, County are the 5th best side in League Two over the last 10 games, and could be set to kick on, with Alassana Jatta now back in the fold and in form, with four goals in his last four appearances.

They travel to National League side Brackley Town, who are currently 17th and winless in five league games, for a televised 17:30 kick-off. They have not scored a goal during that winless run, and that is unlikely to improve up against the second best defence in League Two according to xGA.