Lazio are in 4th position and could do with the points to cement their spot in the Champions League places. If they are to harbour any remaining title chances then this is a must-win game.

This is a Lazio side that has been scoring a lot of goals recently, including a 5-1 win v Monza and a 3-0 win v Verona. The problem has been at the other end where they’ve kept just one clean sheet in 9 games and conceded 15 goals in this period.

Napoli have also become less watertight and BTTS has hit in all of their last four Serie A fixtures. The pressure of this title race with Inter is perhaps starting to take its toll and they will be tested by this Lazio side who have the third best offense in the league.

Because both teams have been involved in several 1-1 draws since Christmas then it is best to cover that potential scoreline as well.

Both sides rank amongst the highest for total match corners this season. Lazio fixtures average 10.46 corners per game, a figure only toppled by Parma and their 6.21 obtained in each match is the most of any side apart from Inter.

Napoli games average 9.38 corners with Antonio Conte’s men weighing in with a 5.79 average on their own, the fourth most of any team. It obviously helps that both sides are regularly dominant in their fixtures as to why they rack up so many corners, but from a tactical perspective it makes sense too.

Napoli have settled on a regular 4-3-3 formation where both full backs get forward, whilst Marco Baroni at Lazio is employing a 4-2-3-1 system which stretches the field. Both teams offer plenty of width and are in great positions to win corners rather than cutting inside more.

Taking over 8.5 corners seems well within range here considering the team averages.

The Scotsman has been a great signing for Napoli and he has managed to rejuvenate his career in Italy. Antonio Conte has deployed him as an effective box to box midfielder and utilised his strengths. McTominay has scored 6 times in Serie A this term and averages 2.10 shots per game.

Taking him to just match this average looks a great bet builder addition because he gets into some great positions. He’s had at least 2 shots in 6 of his last 8 games and in total fired 19 attempts across those games. If anything, he is becoming an even bigger shooting threat as the season progresses.

Lazio’s main man in attack averages over 4 shots per game this season in Serie A and is an obvious candidate to fire in plenty of attempts here. Taking him to just have 3 or more shots here looks like a great bet builder addition and something he’s managed on 20 different occasions this season in all competitions.

More recently, he’s had 3 or more shots in 8 of his last 10 matches (all competitions) including a ridiculous 8 attempts vs Monza last week. Castellanos is potentially on penalty taking duty and can sometimes talk his way into taking dangerous free kicks. All things add up for him to have another shooting frenzy, especially at home. We don’t even need him to match his seasonal average to win this part of the bet builder.

As mentioned previously, there are suddenly some defensive gremlins within both teams which could be exploited. The victory is well worth its weight in gold and to settle for a draw would be seen as quite defensive. Therefore, over 2.5 goals can be considered as a potential value pick at 2.0.

The last 4 Lazio Serie A fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals including their excellent 5-1 win last week vs Monza which should give them plenty of confidence. At least 2 goals have been scored in 8 of the last 9 Napoli fixtures and over 2.5 has landed in their last 4 straight away games in Serie A. The more recent trends and form suggest goals compared to seasonal averages and stats.

In the first bet builder it was explained why taking over 8.5 corners made a lot of sense. The same applies here but in this instance we are taking a higher corner line over 10.5. The seasonal averages for both teams are really high and would suggest 12 corners could occur. That is well within range over the over 10.5 line and we can get a big price of 2.25 for this to happen.

The corner line might be on the low side because of the reputation of both teams and the ‘big match’ feel. But based on the stats and style of play then to ladder the corners to the 10.5 level could represent some value.

Former New York City FC man Valentin ‘Taty’ Castellanos has been in great form this season for Lazio scoring 9 goals in Serie A in addition to supplying 3 assists. He’s also added goals and assists in the Italian Cup & Europa League and has been in great recent form. He scored against Cagliari a couple of rounds ago and then twice against Monza last week, as well as bagging an assist.

He’s a huge threat, and because of his past career history of over 30 assists then taking him in the ‘to score or assist’ market looks like the best option. This is a match which will hopefully contain several goals and he’s Lazio’s big weapon in attack who could deliver in this market. He could be a penalty taker if Mattia Zaccagni isn’t on the field or hands over responsibility.

Lukaku is an obvious goal scoring threat for Napoli and he has thrived under Antonio Conte this season scoring 9 times and supplying 6 assists in Serie A. He is another player worth backing in the dual market to score or assist because his hold up play goes under the radar.

Lukaku has over 80 career assists in all competitions and is very capable of laying off a ball to his teammates and acting unselfishly. Fundamentally though, he’s a proven goalscorer at Serie A level and can be relied on to hit the back of the net.

He drew a blank in both his last two games but netted against both Atalanta and Juventus at the end of January. He’s the #1 penalty taker for Napoli which adds extra weight to backing ‘Big Rom’ in this market.