Based on both form as well as the respective home and away records of the two clubs, Lille have to start this match as substantial favourites.

Lille’s home record is formidable. In 13 Ligue 1 matches, they have lost only to Reims way back in September, while they have picked up nine wins. They have played five home Ligue 1 games in 2024 and have won four of them, doing so with some style.

Marseille, on the other hand, have only two away victories to their credit this season. OM have lost more than half of their away matches in Ligue 1, including three of their last four.

Interim head coach Jean-Louis Gasset, who has been given the job until the end of the season, will have to do without some important players in this match, too. Right back Jonathan Clauss is missing and Chancel Mbemba looks likely to drop out after an injury last week. On top of this, there are a substantial number of players fighting through fitness issues.

Lille look excellent value at 2.1 to get the win or at a more conservative of 1.29 with a +1 handicap.

An explosion of goals, meanwhile, seems unlikely. The previous meeting between these clubs in November finished 0-0. This ended a run of 10 straight matches in this head-to-head in which there were either two or three goals in games between these outfits. A similar outcome is likely here.

Jonathan David is one of the form strikers in Europe and the Lille hitman is the clear threat here. Despite struggling to find his best level early in the season, he has still managed 1.73 shots on target per 90. He has been especially productive in recent weeks, with at least two shots on target in each of his last five starts. He is 1.83 to continue that trend.

With six goals in his last five starts, a price of 2.3 for him to score anytime appears generous.

Edon Zhegrova is surprisingly big at 1.67 to muster a shot on target given he managed to score twice last week and will be full of confidence. Moreover, he is hitting 1.23 shots on target per 90 in Ligue 1 this season and is on a seven-match streak of hitting the target.

Marseille’s threat clearly emanates from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Aside from Ulisses Garcia, who is set to play out of position at right back again, the former Arsenal and Chelsea striker is the only player this season on the Marseille roster to register more than 1 shot on target per 90.

When OM last faced Lille, though, their threat came from midfield, where Valentin Rongier, Geoffrey Kondogbia and Jordan Veretout all managed one effort on target. Veretout is the likeliest protagonist of this trio. At 2.88, he is an attractive price given he has had a shot on target in six of his 11 matches in 2024.

There are a couple of numbers that jump out from the fouls stats from the last time these sides met. The first of these is that a battle raged in the centre of midfield. All six players who started in this area – three from each side – picked up at least one foul.

Nabil Bentaleb was the most prolific along with Marseille’s Valentin Rongier, though the latter is likely to miss this match because of injury. Bentaleb committed three fouls last time out against OM, so his price of 1.25 to be charged with just one infraction looks a big price.

Don’t get carried away with Bentaleb, though. He was just coming back to fitness after several weeks out at that point and was regularly committing three or fouls per match. He has been down to one or two since the November international break.

Tiago Santos is likelier to be a more prolific fouler for the hosts. He has given away multiple fouls in five of his last 11 games. Priced at 1.91, his odds on this count look fair.

As a bet builder booster, Benjamin Andre to commit at least two fouls at 1.57 looks strong. The midfielder is Lille’s greatest criminal, giving away 1.59 free kicks per 90, including at least two in six of his last eight starts.

For OM, look to Ulisses Garcia. He is likely to be deployed out of position at right back, where he gave away three free kicks against PSG. It is a role he is simply not familiar with. A price of 1.2 on one free kick looks good value while 2.0 on multiple fouls is also nice for those who want a more adventurous bet.