In 12 home league fixtures this season, Man City have kept just four clean sheets. Their leaky defence is one of the main reasons they have struggled to stamp their authority on the title race, often needing to come back to win games after giving away sloppy goals in the first half, as they did when they faced the Bees two weeks ago.

The treble winners have scored in all 12 league games at the Etihad, meaning that both teams to score has landed eight times. These goals are not bolts from the blue either, with Pep Guardiola’s side allowing their opponents to generate more than 1xG in three of their last five home league games.

Thomas Frank’s Brentford meanwhile have now scored in eight straight league games, last failing to find the net on December 9, away to Sheffield United. They have failed to score only four times all season, and with the Ivan Toney and Neal Maupay partnership really clicking as of late, they will be confident they can cause City problems here. They have seen both sides score in nine of their last 11 Premier League games.

Even if Brentford can find the back of the net, history suggests City should still win the game relatively comfortably. Of their eight home wins in the league this season, six have been by a two-goal or greater margin, the exceptions being 1-0 v Newcastle and 2-1 v Brighton. City may be sitting at odds of 1.14 to win but backing them to win with a -1 goal handicap at 1.50 could offer nice value.

Phil Foden has been possibly City’s best player this season, and his hat-trick against Brentford a fortnight ago was a perfect illustration of why, showcasing his goal threat and his importance to build-up play in this City side.

Though both Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez shoot more than Foden, his accuracy means he is only slightly behind Alvarez for shots on target (1.15 per 90 for Foden, 1.27 for Alvarez), whilst Haaland’s larger total (1.77) mostly down to the Norwegian taking four shots per game.

Across his last 10 starts, Foden has had a shot on target in eight games, whilst he has racked up two or more shots on target on five occasions, including when these two sides met at the Gtech Community Stadium. Backing him for a shot on target at 1.36, or two at 2.75 both look to offer good value depending on whether you’re looking for a high odds bet builder or something safer.

During this spell Foden has averaged 4.2 shots per game, taking as many as seven shots once and six shots on two separate occasions. He has had three or more shots in eight of his last 10 starts for City and can be backed to do so again today at 1.44.

Neal Maupay may now have gone two games without a goal, but prior to this he had scored in five straight games, including against Man City two weeks ago. The Frenchman has struck up a brilliant partnership with Ivan Toney after just five games and has had at least one shot on target in each game they have played together.

Maupay also has a shot on target in each of his last seven Brentford starts and will look to feed off Toney’s hold up play here as Brentford try to relieve what is likely to be near-constant City pressure. At 2.30 for a shot on target, it is hard to pass up those odds for someone in such great form, regardless of how likely City are to dominate.

Man City’s possession and territorial dominance in games often provides the Blues with plenty of corners, something which has only gone up with the return of Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian’s crossing ability means defenders often have little choice but to turn the ball behind, and that is part of the reason why they have averaged 9.2 corners per game across their last five home league games.

City have had six or more corners in their last eight Premier League games at the Etihad, with six of these eight games seeing nine or more. They had 13 corners away to Brentford, so we can expect their corner tally to at least approach double digits here. The best value here looks to be on backing City to have eight or more corners, at odds of 1.80, whilst a safer option of seven or more at 1.45 also offers solid value.

There is also value to be found in the corner handicap market. A 5-corner handicap is big but would have landed in three of City’s last five home games, and in four of their last six league games overall. The Bees have not had more than four corners in any of their last five away league games, so backing City to have six more corners than their visitors at 2.10 could be a nice option for a higher odds bet builder.

Despite making just four starts in his nine appearances since returning from injury, Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has committed six fouls already. The Belgian has never been afraid to get stuck in, and he will be matched up against Christian Norgaard and Mathias Jensen who draw 1.20 and 0.93 fouls per game respectively. Sitting as high as 1.53 to commit a single foul here, De Bruyne offers excellent value in this market.

Another City player to watch is Ruben Dias. Another player never afraid to get stuck in, Dias competes for every ball, whether that be aerially or on the ground, and he will be tasked with keeping Ivan Toney quiet here. Both Toney and Maupay draw over two fouls per game, at 2.60 and 2.04 respectively, so Dias will have his work cut out avoiding committing a foul here.

The Portuguese centre-back has committed a foul in his last four domestic starts for City, including one last time these two sides met. His 0.92 fouls per 90 is third-highest amongst City players expected to start here, and he can also be backed at 1.53 for just a single foul.

Sergio Reguilon offers solid value in the fouls markets. The Brentford wing-back’s foul numbers have been low for the season, partly down to his use off the bench for United during his loan spell at the club. He has however committed a foul in two of his three Brentford starts in the Premier League, averaging a foul per game for the Bees when he starts the game.

Likely to be matched up against Phil Foden, with Kevin De Bruyne moving into wide areas to support, he will have a lot to do here; seeing him commit a foul for the third game straight would not be a surprise. Available at 1.44 to commit a foul, Reguilon offers the best value of any Bees player in the fouls markets.