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Brentford v Man City Bet Builder Tips, 15/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Brentford v Man City Bet Builder Tips, 15/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 3 October, 20255 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Brentford welcome Manchester City to the Gtech Community Stadium having avoided defeat in their three home games this season against Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa.

Manchester City were left feeling frustrated after conceding a dubious last minute penalty against Monaco in the Champions League during the week but Guardiola will take confidence from the fact that his side are unbeaten across their last seven matches in all competitions.

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Brentford v Man City Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Brentford v Man City
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
4 Selections @ 4.25

Erling Haaland to have 2+ Shots on Target

Erling Haaland added two more goals to his tally for the season during the week in City’s 2-2 draw with Monaco in the Champions League. This takes his total for the season to 14 goals across just 12 matches in all competitions.

Eight of these goals have come in the Premier League from 13 shots on target (2.31 per 90). Haaland has had 2+ shots on target in each of his last four Premier League matches and hit three shots on target from four shots in City’s draw with Monaco.

His recent record is bordering on the absurd with Haaland scoring in each of his last eight matches for club and country. He’s scored 2+ goals in four of these games so it’s fair to say that there is no player more reliable at the moment in Europe when it comes to goals and shots on target.

Manchester City had eight shots on target in this fixture last season with Haaland responsible for three of these efforts on goal.

Michael Kayode to Commit 1+ Fouls

I’m a bit concerned for any player coming up against Jeremy Doku at the moment. He’s always been an electric player to watch that can draw fouls from opponents at ease, but he’s added a maturity to his game which has made him more of a threat in the final third with a tangible end product. This is illustrated by the six goal contributions he’s registered across his 11 appearances in all competitions.

Kayode has been bright for Brentford in the early stages of the season. I first watched him when he was playing for Italy in the U20 EUROS a few seasons ago and his main attributes have developed into strong traits since then.

He’s very physical and has real power when driving with the ball, the perfect match for a player like Doku who will take on Kayode constantly. Kayode has committed six fouls across his six Premier League matches this season (1.02 per 90).

Doku has won 10 fouls across his four Premier League starts this season (2.41 per 90). This is a consistent aspect of his game with the tricky winger winning 1.96 fouls per 90 across his 29 Premier League appearances last season.

Man City Over 1.5 Goals

Brentford are far from the security they developed at the back under Thomas Frank in the early weeks of the season. They’ve conceded 2+ goals in four of their six Premier League games so far this season and I think they’ll struggle to keep City out here.

Guardiola’s side keep teasing a return to the form which saw Manchester City reign dominant over the Premier League for a few seasons, but defensive issues have held them back from being a convincing title challenger. They’ve scored 2+ goals in four of their last five matches with the exception coming away against Arsenal, a side with the joint best defensive record in the league.

City scored 2+ goals in both head to head meetings with Brentford last season. Thomas Frank often got the better of Pep Guardiola in his time with the Bees and remains the only manager to have completed the double against Guardiola in the Premier League. Keith Andrews is still a way off in his development to reach the tactical nous of Frank and is unlikely to be able to continue Brentford’s decent record against City.

Brentford to Commit 11+ Fouls

One area of Brentford’s game I've been keeping an eye on this season is how aggressive they’re being without the ball. This caught my eye because only Manchester City committed fewer fouls in the Premier League than Brentford last season with the Bees averaging just 8.70 fouls committed per game.

However, across the opening six games of the season they’ve averaged 13.0 fouls committed per game - a massive increase which has them ranked third in the Premier League when it comes to fouls.

This is a smaller sample size and may well level out as we get further into the season, but it shows no signs of slowing down at the moment with City having a range of players that can help to increase the foul count here.

Brentford committed 14 fouls in their 3-1 win over Manchester United last time out and have committed 11 fouls in all six of their Premier League matches this season, with five of these matches seeing more than 11 fouls committed by Keith Andrews side.

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Brentford v Man City Best Longshot Bets
  • Brentford v Man City
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
3 Selections @ 15.72

Phil Foden to Score Anytime

Foden has a fantastic record against Brentford in recent seasons in the Premier League. He scored both of Manchester City’s goals in their 2-2 draw at the Gtech Community Stadium last season and hit a hat trick at the stadium in City’s last win in West London back in 2024.

Foden was unlucky not to score in City’s 2-2 draw with Monaco during the week in which he hit the bar with a thunderous strike, the second time that City hit the woodwork in that game.

Foden is slowly finding form again in a City shirt with his overall performances steadily improving. He’s scored two goals for City this season with one of these coming in the Manchester Derby and the other coming in the Carabao Cup.

Foden can continue his superb record against Brentford and on this ground in particular, spurred on by his improving performances at the start of this season following a disappointing campaign last term.

Igor Thiago to be Shown a Card

Thiago commits fouls for fun. He leads the line for Brentford and has a responsibility to ensure that the Bees press from the front. His aggression has led to two yellow cards in the Premier League already this season against Sunderland and Chelsea as well as a card in the Carabao Cup against Bournemouth.

Brentford are much more aggressive off the ball under Keith Andrews than they were under Thomas Frank who didn’t instruct his striker to engage with the opposition backline as much as Andrews does.

Thiago has committed 2+ fouls in four of his last five Premier League appearances with this total reaching 15 fouls across his six appearances (2.72 per 90) - comfortably more than any other Brentford player. He’s also scored four goals this season so he is an all action player that will look to get after Manchester City’s backline.

Brentford have seen a general increase in their foul numbers in the early stages of the season with their average increasing from 8.70 fouls committed per game to 13.0 fouls committed per game.

Kevin Schade to have 1+ Shots on Target

I’m a big fan of Kevin Schade, he has all the attributes to be a top attacker in the Premier League or another top five league with his speed and clinical finishing ability. He was linked with a move back to the Bundesliga over the summer with Dortmund interested in the forward but the Bees have managed to keep hold of him for at least another season.

Schade is likely to play in a front two with Thiago here which has been the preferred system for Keith Andrews in Brentford’s home games so far. Schade has scored one goal in the Premier League this season which came against Chelsea at the Gtech Community Stadium. He will find himself gifted opportunities at times here with City still struggling with the persistent issue of letting sides get joy on the counter against them.

His speed will cause City’s backline problems, Guardiola has already conceded that his backline lacks pace in the absence of Khusanov so this is an area that Brentford will definitely look to exploit. He’s found the target with four of his 10 attempts in the Premier League this season (0.75 per 90).

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📂 Brentford v Man City Cheat Sheet

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📈 Brentford v Man City Form & Tactics

Brentford have managed to avoid defeat in their three home games in the Premier League so far this season against Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa - winning two of these games. Their issues have mainly come on the road so far this season with Keith Andrews’ side losing all three of their away games this term with eight of the 11 goals they’ve conceded also coming in these matches.

That being said, Manchester City will be the biggest test they’ve faced at home so far and enter this game on a run of six games unbeaten. Brentford’s system has slightly changed under Keith Andrews, but he has continued to build on the foundation that Frank gave him - notably from long throws which is a strategy that many other Premier League teams have started to adopt this season. No side has scored more goals from long throw-ins than Brentford over the last two seasons (7).

Guardiola was left frustrated after Eric Dier tucked away a last minute penalty to deny Manchester City back to back wins in the Champions League during the week. His City side look a lot more balanced than they did last season with Guardiola opting for a slightly different style of play which isn’t as focused on short passing sequences and dominating the ball.

City have had a taste of each result on the road so far with their 4-0 win at Molineux on the opening weekend of the season followed up by a 2-1 loss to Brighton and 1-1 draw against Arsenal. Guardiola will want to ensure that his side remain more secure on the road as this was a problem area for City last season, they only won eight of their 19 away matches which was City’s worst away record since Guardiola joined the club.


📔 Brentford v Man City Formation & Team News

Brentford should line up in a 5-3-2 here, it’s the system that they’ve been using in their home games to great effect with two wins and a draw against Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa. This is mainly a counter attacking system, and I’d expect the Bees to sit in a low-mid block for most of the match and force City wide meaning lots of duels for the wingbacks who will effectively be fullbacks in this game.

Brentford don’t have any major injuries or absences to contend with so Keith Andrews has a fully fit squad to pick from. The roles of Igor Thiago and Kevin Schade will be crucial to any chance that Brentford have of taking something from the game as the two forwards will have to be clinical with the limited chances that fall their way.

Manchester City have been lining up in a 4-1-4-1 in the majority of their games this season, Pep does occasionally drop one player from the advanced four to form a double pivot if Rodri isn’t playing as he can’t trust anyone else on their own in that role, as he found out last season.

City’s style has definitely shifted away from the relentless passing patterns we used to see from Guardiola’s side. They’re a lot more physical and willing to be direct into Erling Haaland. This change was confirmed by the signing of Donnarumma who clearly isn’t a keeper that is going to be playing out from the back all the time, as well as the appointment of Jurgen Klopp’s former assistant coach Pep Ljnders to his backroom staff.


📊 Brentford v Man City Key Stats

  • Brentford have avoided defeat in their three home games so far this season against Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa.

  • Manchester City have only won one of their three away games so far this season.

  • Brentford are averaging 13.0 fouls committed per game, a massive increase on the 8.70 fouls committed per game last season.

  • Manchester City are unbeaten across their last six matches in all competitions, winning four of these games.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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