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Napoli v Genoa Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Napoli v Genoa Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Saturday 4 October, 20253 min read
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Harry Nye

Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.

Napoli return to Serie A action looking to reassert domestic control after their midweek European triumph, as Rasmus Højlund’s brace secured a 2-1 victory over Sporting CP.

That result swiftly put to bed the disappointment of last weekend’s narrow loss to Milan (their first league defeat in 16 outings) and underlined their credentials on both fronts.

Genoa arrive in stark contrast, still searching for a first league win of the campaign and reeling from a 3-0 defeat to Lazio. With Naples a notoriously unforgiving venue and Genoa winless here in 15 attempts, this encounter promises to be a stern test.

These Napoli v Genoa Betting Stats dig further into the data ahead of kick-off.

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Napoli v Genoa Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Napoli v Genoa
  • Serie A
  • 17:00
4 Selections @ 3.79

Napoli to Win

Napoli’s defeat to Milan last weekend was a setback, but their midweek 2-1 victory over Sporting CP quickly steadied the ship, restoring belief and underlining their ability to respond. That resilience has been a feature of this side for over a year, as their unbeaten domestic run stretched 16 games before that Milan loss (W11, D5).

At the Stadio Maradona, Napoli are near untouchable. They’ve not lost on home soil since December 2023 (W11, D3), and seven of their last eight league games here have ended in victory.

Genoa, meanwhile, look fragile. They’ve lost three of their last four league fixtures and produced their lowest five-round points haul in nearly 30 years. Their away form provides little comfort. No wins in Naples for 15 visits (D6, L9), and just one victory in their last 24 Serie A meetings overall.

Over 4.5 Napoli Corners

Napoli’s attacking output naturally translates into corner volume, and this season’s numbers are compelling. Across all competitions they’re averaging 5.86 corners per game, rising to 6.4 in Serie A and a league-high nine at home. With the joint-second highest shot output in the division (16.8 per match), their sustained pressure consistently forces blocks, saves, and deflections that swell corner counts.

Genoa’s defensive shape is unlikely to stem that tide. They’ve conceded an average of 3.8 corners per match this season, but recent evidence is more revealing. Bologna forced eight on Genoa’s last away trip, exposing their vulnerability against sides who dictate territory. History also supports this selection, with Napoli registering at least five corners in six of their last seven meetings with Genoa.

Matteo Politano to have 2+ Shots

Napoli’s attacking depth makes almost any forward a viable option for shot-based selections, but Matteo Politano stands out. Operating on the right of Napoli’s midfield four, he is their most active shooter among regular starters, averaging 2.57 attempts per 90 this season.

He’s hit at least two shots in five of his seven league starts, one of those misses came in exceptional circumstances against Man City, when Napoli managed just a single team effort after an early red card.

Politano thrives in Napoli’s system, which consistently funnels play into wide channels before cutting back inside. Against Genoa, who average 13 shots faced per match, his role becomes even more pronounced. In fact, his track record in this fixture is excellent.

He’s averaged 3.01 shots per 90 against the Grifone and registered at least two attempts in five of his last six starts against them.

Brooke Norton-Cuffy to Commit 2+ Fouls

The English full-back has made a promising start to life in Italy since his first permanent move from Arsenal, but the combative nature of Italian football is already having an influence on the youngster’s discipline.

His fouling output has more than doubled from his Millwall spell two years ago (0.75 per 90) to 1.67 this season, and the early pattern is evident. In each of his last four starts he has committed at least two fouls. Whether deployed as a wing-back or deeper in his preferred right-back role, his eagerness to engage in duels often tips into rash challenges.

Sunday’s assignment will test that discipline further. Scott McTominay, last season’s standout for Napoli and the Serie A Player of the Season, is already drawing 3.13 fouls per 90 this term, and will drag Norton-Cuffy into repeated defensive actions.

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📈 Napoli v Genoa Form & Tactics

Napoli arrive with renewed confidence after overturning Sporting CP 2-1 in midweek, with Højlund’s brace restoring momentum after their narrow league loss at Milan. That defeat remains their only blemish of the campaign, breaking a 16-game unbeaten Serie A streak (W11, D5).

In domestic terms, their record is still imposing with four wins, one draw, and a joint-second league-leading attack that has scored in every fixture. On home soil they remain a formidable force, unbeaten since December (W11, D3) across all competitions, along with seven wins from their last eight league outings at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Genoa’s story has been far bleaker. A 3-0 collapse against Lazio last weekend confirmed their third defeat in four matches (D1), marking their lowest five-round points return (two) in three decades. Their attack has struggled to sustain pressure across 90 minutes, while defensively they have shipped seven goals in their last four league outings.

Even their more resilient away record (W1, D2 across their last four) offers little solace here, given the historical gulf. Genoa have managed just one victory in their last 24 league meetings with Napoli (D8, L15) and are winless in Naples since 2009, spanning 15 trips (D6, L9).


📔 Napoli v Genoa Formation & Team News

Napoli are expected to maintain their fluid 4-1-4-1 structure, capable of shifting into a 4-3-3. Højlund should spearhead the attack, flanked by Politano and McTominay, with De Bruyne providing creativity and progression through midfield and with Lobotka and Anguissa also anchoring transitions.

Their tactical brief will be familiar: dominate possession, circulate quickly through midfield, and overload wide areas to isolate Genoa’s full backs.

Wilson’s Genoa are likely to set up in a cautious 4-2-3-1, with Malinovsky carrying the creative burden behind lone forward Colombo. Key injuries remain disruptive with the likes of Junior Messias out and Stanciu a doubt, which will likely leave rotation in midfield, albeit with limited choice.

This could well prove telling against Napoli’s high press and aggressive territorial control. Genoa will attempt to compact centrally, block Napoli’s vertical lanes and hit on the counter, but sustained resistance over 90 minutes has been their undoing in recent weeks.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as European Football Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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