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Port Vale v Arsenal 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Port Vale v Arsenal 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

EFL
Starts Today, 20:00
Tuesday 23 September, 20254 min read
In this article...

One of the more rare English professional football matches takes place on Wednesday, as Port Vale host Arsenal for the first time ever in the EFL Cup and only the third time in 100 years.

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Port Vale v Arsenal Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Port Vale v Arsenal
  • EFL Cup
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.85

Arsenal (-1) Handicap

Arsenal have easily crossed this handicap line in all of their recent domestic cup ties against teams that are playing outside of the Premier League.

There have been six matches that Arsenal have played against non-PL teams domestically since 2021/22, and they have covered the -2 handicap in all of them: 3-0, 5-1, 3-0, 5-1, 3-0, 6-0.

Port Vale are playing in League One, having been promoted from League Two last season, and they have started well from a performance perspective, but they had been in the bottom four until their win at the weekend. They are the lowest-ranked team that Arsenal have played in any of the last four seasons.

Arsenal to have 7+ Shots on Target

Looking into last season’s EFL Cup run, especially the matches against Bolton and Preston, this looks a good price for Arsenal’s shots on target.

The Gunners managed 18 against Preston and 21 against Bolton, with ten and nine of those on target, respectively. They also hit nine shots on target in the quarter-final against Crystal Palace.

Port Vale have conceded seven or more shots on target in three of their last four matches as well.

Ben White to have 1+ Shots

I think that White has been underestimated here, mainly as a result of his lack of action recently.

Whilst he is far from a shot monster, he is still a consistent attacking weapon, even from open play. He has managed a shot in the only competitive game he has played in this season (v Man United), and managed an effort in three of his final four games last season.

He averages 0.67 shots per 90 over Arsenal's last 50 matches, but Arsenal have consistently produced high shot totals against non-PL teams, which gives this a nice upgrade as well.

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Cameron Humphrey to Commit 1+ Fouls

Humphreys has committed at least one foul in each of his last three matches, and in seven of his last ten starts as well.

He is averaging 0.84 fouls per 90, but looking back to Arsenal’s matches against Bolton and Preston last season in the EFL Cup, they conceded more fouls.

He'll likely be up against Gabriel Martinelli in terms of marking, who averages 0.89 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League this season.

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Port Vale v Arsenal Best Longshot Bets
  • Port Vale v Arsenal
  • EFL Cup
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 42.20

Over 4.5 Goals

As we saw in the justification for the Arsenal handicap win above, there have been three times in the six matches Arsenal have played against non-PL opposition in the cups in which the goal line was above 5.5.

We have gone a step below that, just to take some of the risk out of it, and also because Port Vale have seen two of their last four matches go over this line as well.

Vale have every chance of contributing to the score here as well; they created almost 3 xG in their last match against Mansfield.

Myles Lewis-Skelly to be Shown a Card

Lewis-Skelly averages just under a card every three sets of 90 minutes for Arsenal when taking a 50-match sample size.

Whilst Arsenal are unlikely to have to make many tackles in the match, I don’t see why they won’t have to defend some potentially dangerous counter-attacks here, as they have done when Lewis-Skelly has been cautioned before.

There is also a fitness question mark over Lewis-Skelly; he has been suggested as a starter here, but he might be short of full sharpness, which also plays into our hands.

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George Byers to have 1+ Shots

Byers has been a regular shot threat for Port Vale whenever he has played since his signing for the club in the summer of 2024.

He is averaging 1.68 shots per 90 over Port Vale's last 30 matches, and he has hit two shots in each of his last three starts, so he is very much in the groove of taking shots right now.

Whilst Arsenal are unlikely to give up many good opportunities, Byers is not afraid to shoot from distance, so there are going to be some instances where a shot will.

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📂 Port Vale v Arsenal Cheat Sheet

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📈 Port Vale v Arsenal Form & Tactics

Darren Moore is a manager who seems to prefer a 3-5-2 system where possible. We can expect this to look more like a 5-3-2 in this match, with the front two also sent to work to win the ball in their own half where possible. This will, in turn, allow the wider central midfielders to help double up in wide areas and combat the threat from Arsenal’s full-backs.

Vale aren’t necessarily a defensive team; they are able to attack with speed and physicality, but they will be concentrating on defensive shape and counter-attacking for this match.

Port Vale are in good form now as well; they have won their last two League One matches after not getting the results that they have deserved up to that point.

Mikel Arteta is very consistent in his general shape, but is very active during the match with lots of small changes on the pitch, which can have a great cumulative effect when compiled together.

The basic shape at the beginning of matches is usually a 4-3-3 with a single holding pivot in the central midfield. The full-backs in the back four are usually players who can play at centre-back as well. This allows Arsenal to defend narrowly when required, but the players are usually supremely comfortable on the ball, so they can play in midfield as well.

Width is provided by the wide forwards, there is a centre-forward whose role, outside of goalscoring, is to link the play intelligently, whilst playmaking and goal threat also come from the pair of #8s either side of a more positionally secure defensive midfielder.

Arsenal have started the season strongly. One narrow defeat to Liverpool and a 1-1 draw with Manchester City are the only points dropped in all competitions so far.


🏁 Ref Watch

Andrew Kitchen

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

21.48

2.86

0.08

0.14

Per game stats from Kitchen's 122 career games.

  • This will be Andrew Kitchen's 123rd match as the main official in England, but only his 7th in the League Cup.

  • Kitchen has averaged 2.86 yellow cards per match in his career, which is a low average. This includes an average of exactly 3 cards per game in the League Cup.

  • This season, he is currently averaging 2.6 yellow cards and 20 fouls per match, including the last round of the League Cup, where he gave two cards (one per team) and 17 fouls in Burnley's 2-1 win over Derby.


📊 Port Vale v Arsenal Stats

  • This is only the second time in 16 years that Port Vale have reached the third round of this competition.

  • It is the first time that Port Vale and Arsenal have met in the EFL Cup, but Vale have drawn with Arsenal in their only other cup ties in history - 1927 and 1998. Arsenal progressed in both replays.

  • Vale produce the highest average number of accurate crosses at 6.4 per match.

  • Arsenal have the highest number of touches in the box of any Premier League team so far this season - 160.

  • Arsenal have won the joint highest number of corners so far this season in the Premier League - 33.

  • Only Newcastle have conceded less xG than Arsenal in the Premier League; Arsenal have conceded 3.3 xG so far.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as EFL Predictions for this week, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got you covered for Wednesday's EFL Cup action, with Quick Preview coverage of Newcastle v Bradford and Tottenham v Doncaster, as well as Huddersfield v Man City Quick Tips.

If you're eyeing up an accumulator bet for Wednesday's slate, we also have a Europa League Acca, an EFL Cup Acca, and a Match Result + BTTS Acca.

To elevate your punting potential, check out our xG Betting Guide and PPDA Explainer.

You can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers here if you're after some free bets. We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer, and the SBK Sign Up Offer.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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