The card line for this match seems rather low. To be able to back over 2.5 cards at a price that is acceptable to play in a multiple is surprising.

Referee Adam Herczeg is an official who is not afraid to dish out the cards either, he is averaging 4.25 yellow cards per match in the Championship so far this season. Seven of his bookings did come in one match, which, again, shows that he isn’t afraid to book multiple players in a single 90 minute period.

This is without taking into account the fact that this is a local derby between two teams who are being asked to be intense and physical, especially off-the-ball. Both teams will be playing similar systems, there will be 1v1 battles all across the pitch, and both teams tend to have bookings in their matches.

There is an average of 4.44 yellow cards per match in Millwall matches so far this season in the Championship, interestingly, more are given to Millwall’s opponents on average, 2.44 per match versus only 2 for Millwall. QPR matches are averaging exactly four cautions per match as well, so there is a lot to like in this line.

The big centre forward has earned both the trust of the manager, and the admiration of the QPR fans as well in the short time that he has represented the Super Hoops, and that is in no small part to his ability to cause a threat to the opposition.

My QPR contact felt the need to remark upon the way that Kone uses his body well on the pitch. He is able to protect the ball really well, as well as being able to manipulate it well. Sometimes those actions are able to end in a shot for Kone.

Whatever the method, Kone is getting shots off, and doing it consistently. He is also getting the vast majority of minutes as well at the moment, and whilst both of those things remain the case, he is worthy of a bet in this market.

Kone has started the last six QPR matches now. He is averaging 2.94 shots per 90 in a QPR shirt, and each time he has played in a home game, only three times so far, he has shot at least twice in all three matches, one playing as a #10 and two as a lone #9. He looks a good bet to fire three or more efforts away here.

I was surprised to see this as such an easy line to back, given Massimo Luongo’s reputation, but also his actual record at Millwall since his signing towards the end of the summer window.

Luongo, since being repositioned as a central midfielder from his initial breakthrough as a forward, has earned a reputation as a frequent tackler, and, as often happens in that role, a frequent fouler as well.

He has started six matches for Millwall in the Championship and every single one of them has contained two or more personal fouls for the Australian international. Indeed, Luongo is up at an impressive 3.1 fouls per 90 at the moment this season. This is partially because of his four fouls last time out against West Brom.

We know that referee Herczeg doesn’t seem to have a problem in giving out cards, and his foul count in the Championship is a healthy average of 22 per match, so there is no issue from that side either.

The Lions are averaging 4.83 corners per match in the Championship so far this season. Interestingly, this number actually increases to five corners per match when only looking at their Championship away matches.

Indeed, Millwall have beaten the 3.5 corner line in each of their Championship matches so far. They have won four corners in each of their last two away games at Swansea and Charlton, they won seven at Sheffield United and five at Norwich. This is all while remaining unbeaten in all of those matches, so they haven’t necessarily been chasing games.

When including all Championship matches, Millwall have only failed to cover this line once in nine matches, at home to Coventry in their 0-4 defeat, where they only won three corners.

From a QPR perspective, they have conceded more corners than this line on six of nine Championship matches so far this season.