Crystal Palace have the highest xG per match of any Premier League team so far this season, but are the biggest underachievers in terms of turning those expected goals into actual goals.

The visitors to Selhurst Park this weekend are Brentford, fresh from toppling Liverpool last weekend and thumping Grimsby with their second string in midweek. They have lost three of their four away league games, though, conceding eight goals in those three defeats.

The Eagle’s Jean-Phillipe Mateta has five league goals so far, a tally only bettered by three players in England’s top tier. He boasts the second-highest xG per 90 behind Erling Haaland, at 0.91 per 90, which shows he continually gets on the end of quality chances.

Danny Welbeck scored his fifth goal of the season against his old employers, Manchester United, last time, all of which have come in his last four appearances. Brighton have enjoyed a mixed start, but are unbeaten at home, with two wins and two draws.

They host Leeds United, who have proved competitive so far since promotion, but the majority of their points have been gained at Elland Road, with one win and three losses away from home, conceding over two per match.

Welbeck has the 7th best xG per 90 of any Premier League player, and must have an outside squeak of a place on the plane to the World Cup if he can maintain this kind of standard throughout the campaign, or at least a test run in an upcoming squad.

Leeds' defensive underlying numbers are very good overall, conceding just 1.03 per game currently, but then increased to 1.49 away from home, and three of those four games on the road have been against teams in the bottom five. Brighton should therefore have no problem creating chances.

There has been an accusation of Viktor Gyokeres’ Arsenal career so far that he’s yet to score an important goal, and has preyed on the weak teams, and it is hard to argue with that. Two goals against Leeds when his side were 2-0 up, and likewise against Atletico, whilst one goal against a Forest side in crisis in a 3-0 win doesn’t inspire either.

Given the Gunners travel away to the team who have conceded the highest xGA in the Premier League, this looks like a game to side with the Swedish striker. Burnley are giving up 2.06 xG per match, which is an unsustainable amount in their battle against the drop, despite them currently being outside the bottom three.

League leaders Arsenal should be too strong for the Clarets, and an early goal could lead to a hatful, in which case Gyokeres would do well to avoid scoring.

There has been a lot written about Liverpool’s demise following six defeats in their last seven, but something they are continuously doing is scoring goals at Anfield, with the exception of a heavily rotated side against Crystal Palace last night.

Cody Gakpo and Mo Salah are tied on five goals and assists, and it’s the former I want to be on side with here, having scored six goals in his last seven games for club and country, before drawing a blank at Brentford last weekend. His shots per 90 are behind only Ekitike and Chiesa for Liverpool.

Villa have won four games in a row in the Premier League, but I wouldn’t say there has been a massive upturn in performance levels, with them mostly edging narrow games where they create few chances, plus three of the four wins came at Villa Park.

Liverpool get back on track here, and Gakpo contributes.