Faroe Islands have been one of the surprise packages in qualifying, winning four of their seven matches so far which leaves them just one point behind Czechia and only four away from Croatia, who currently lead this qualifying group. It’s only these three sides vying for two spots with Montenegro and Gibraltar already cut off from the pack and without a tangible chance of qualifying. 

Croatia have netted 20 goals during this qualifying process and have only conceded once. They’ve seen 3+ goals in four of their six matches with the exceptions coming against Czechia and their away clash against Faroe Islands. They won that away game 1-0, but the contest should have produced more goals with a combined xG of 3.7 in the game. Croatia were the main contributors to this xG, but Faroe Islands showed that they can pose a threat with an xG of 1.05.

Faroe Islands have seen 16 goals across their seven qualifying matches so far (2.28 per game). They don’t have anything to lose here, so are likely to go with a bold approach which can see them contribute to the goal tally. Croatia have the firepower to cover this line themselves with the 20 goals they’ve scored in qualifying working out to 3.33 goals per game.

Germany should be able to cover this line on their own, if you’re interested in a slightly higher price for this angle then Germany 3+ goals is available at 1.44. Germany netted four goals in the clash between these sides back in October, with Julian Naglesmann’s men exceeding their xG of 3.85 from 31 shots.

Luxembourg have conceded 10 goals across their four qualifying games this term (2.5 per game) - more than any other side in this qualifying group. Two of their four games have seen 3+ goals with these games being against Germany and Northern Ireland. Goal difference could end up being pivotal to Germany in this group with Nagelsmann’s men currently tied on nine points with Slovakia, and Northern Ireland just three points behind.

Germany have seen 3+ goals in two of their four matches in qualifying so far, and should be able to cover this line on their own with the superior quality in the attacking third they boast when compared to their opponents who are propping the rest of the sides up in Group A.

Poland and Netherlands are separated by just three points after six qualifying matches in Group G. Netherlands were favourites to top the group before a ball was kicked, but have found themselves closely tracked by Poland who managed to hold the Dutch to a 1-1 draw when the sides clashed back in September.

Finland are also threatening to break into this battle, sitting three points behind the pair having played an extra game. The loser of this tie may find themselves looking over their shoulder with Finland expected to pick up all three points in their clash against Malta which takes place just before this game. 

This should result in both sides being motivated to secure a crucial win, I’d also expect Poland to carry more threat than they did in the most recent clash (0.30 xG) as the home side here. 

Only Spain and Norway are scoring more goals per game in qualifying than Netherlands this campaign. They should be able to extend that scoring power to this crucial clash, with Poland also able to contribute to a high goal tally with the six goals they’ve netted across their three home games so far.