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🏈 Austin Ekeler, 25+ Receiving Yards (v Eagles)
🏈 Travis Kelce, Anytime Touchdown (v Bills)
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Sunday’s 3/1 NFL Player Prop Tips
Austin Ekeler, 25+ Receiving Yards
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Game: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
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Kick Off: 20:00
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Odds: 1.83
Austin Ekeler had his best receiving game of the season the last time he faced Philadelphia, posting 8 catches for 89 yards. The Eagles will be focused on limiting Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown down the field, opening up more short yardage opportunities.
Additionally, the Eagles lost a starting linebacker, and will be focused on the legs of Jayden Daniels. Every rush for Daniels is a loss for the Eagles, considering he led the league in EPA generated on scrambles, they would much rather he checked down to Ekeler out of the backfield.
He’s over this number in both playoff games thus far, with 26 and 40 receiving yards in the playoffs. They have been leading in both games, decreasing his receiving snaps, but this could be his highest usage game of the postseason. Ekeler has flat out looked better than Brian Robinson to end the season, and he’s seen more than 50% of postseason snaps with even more room to improve.
The Eagles defense will make you check it down, and Daniels’ ADOT has decreased from 8 to 5.9 when he faced them this year, which is good news for Ekelers receiving yards.
Travis Kelce, Anytime Touchdown
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Game: Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
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Kick Off: 23:30
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Odds: 2.20
Last week I wrote about how disrespectful it was to offer Travis Kelce TD at this price, and it looks like they have not learned their lesson. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends of all time but because of the Chiefs managing his workload in the regular season, we are getting a discount.
It looks like the back-to-back rest weeks treated him well because Kelce made his impact against the Texans last week recording 7 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Kelce is the Chiefs’ all-time touchdown leader and has arguably the best chemistry between any quarterback and pass catcher in football, when the moments are the biggest I expect Mahomes to turn towards his favorite target.
Travis Kelce has played 17 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes, in those games they have a 15-2 record, with the tight end recording 130 catches and 18 touchdowns. He has been one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in playoff history and I see no reason not to back him in what should be a high-scoring affair against the Bills.
With Isiah Pacheco struggling since coming back from injury, they should lead on the passing game even more than usual in the red zone.
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