First up I’m taking a -3 handicap on the Dolphins against the Jets. Earlier in the season the Dolphins were, let’s be frank here, a disgrace, but it’s going under the radar how much they’ve improved of late.

This is a team who’ve won four of their last five games, including beating the Bills. There have been tweaks on the offensive side of the ball, and in De’Von Achan,e they have one of the league’s most dangerous running backs.

The Browns might have lost 26-8 to the San Francisco 49ers last week, but it’s hard to argue that the offense has looked more effective with Shedeur Sanders under centre. There’s been so much drama around the rookie quarterback since he fell in April’s NFL Draft, but he is the best option the team have right now. 

Sanders gives me confidence that they can get the victory at home against the Titans, so we’re taking the Browns to win on the moneyline. The Titans are 1-11 this season and have lost seven in a row. The Browns are ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA and have Myles Garrett, the best defensive player in the league right now. With Garrett being a one-man wrecking ball and Sanders looking at least semi-competent, I’m backing a Cleveland win.

If you’ve been betting the spreads this season, then you’ll know that no team is hitting like the Seahawks, who are 9-3 against the spread. It feels like Sam Darnold was underrated all of last season as a Viking, and the same has happened in Seattle. This team is consistently priced wrong by the bookies, who just don’t seem to get a handle on them.

They rank top of the NFL in defensive DVOA and top 10 on offensive DVOA. They’re strong across the board and face a Falcons team who are infuriatingly inconsistent this season. The Falcons have covered the spread just twice in their past seven games and shouldn’t on Sunday.

Looking at any season long trends is useless for the Bengals because it’s as simple as, do they have Joe Burrow at quarterback or do they not? They’ve won all three games with him at QB, including last week when he returned to win 32-14 against the Ravens. Now he faces a tougher test in the Bills, but it’s one he should win. He’s a top QB and can really elevate this team.

The wheels have really fallen off for the Bills over the last two months, only winning four of their previous eight games. You never know exactly which Bills team will show up, but the factthat they’ve only covered the spread in four of their past 10 needs to be considered. They’ve also only covered in one of four games as a home favourite.