The Texans are here because of their defense, make no mistake, but I fancy them to hit their points total, for two reasons. Firstly, I think the Patriots defense are slightly overrated, as discussed above, as well as ranking 11 spots behind the Texans in defensive EPA per play. Crucially, we’ve seen CJ Stroud really develop as the season has progressed after a tricky start to the year.

For all the noise about defense, this Texans team just put 30 points on the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. They’ve also managed to score 20 or more points in nine straight games up to this point. They’re more than capable of putting points on the board against this Patriots team.

When you really look into the Patriots' defense you can see that they’re better against the run than the pass, meaning that Stroud should continue his recently strong performances on Sunday night. He’s not become the superstar that we expected after his rookie season, but he is a strong game manager and can keep the team moving the chains downfield.

We’re taking an alternate passing line on him here, lower than his 212.5 regular line, which I’m not overly confident about him covering. It feels like 175 passing yards is a low enough bar that he should be able to cover it, even with the added pressure of the play-offs. He’s exceeded this line in all but two games this season.

Around a month ago the Rams looked like the team to beat this year but then they lost to the Seahawks, and Falcons. They followed that with a win over the Cardinals but then only just squeezed past a Panthers team last week, in a game they were expected to win with ease. With that in mind, I don’t want to back them on the spread, but I’m still bullish on their Super Bowl hopes and have full confidence they win here, even on the road.

They finished with one more win than the Bears this season but with three NFC West teams still in the playoffs, it shows the depth in their division. The Rams finished the regular season top of offensive DVOA, fourth in defensive DVOA and second in offensive EPA per play. This is a serious offense, with a defense who can hang with anybody in the NFL. They win this against a good and improving Bears team.

The Rams offense continues to circle around Puke Nacua, who continues to be a volume monster. He’s had double digit targets in 11 games this season, including the past six games straight. Interestingly, last week, in their most important game of the season so far, he had season-high 18 targets from Matthew Stafford.

Last week he got 111 receiving yards, his seventh 100+ receiving yard game of the season. He’s broken this alternate line of 80+ in 11 games this season, and with their Super Bowl campaign on the line, they’ll continue to go back to the former BYU man.