This has been far from a banner year for the Miami Dolphins, but they should be confident here and have a home matchup against one of the worst teams in the NFL right now, the New Orleans Saints. The Dolphins have won three of their past four and have been playing really well at points, knocking off the Bills in that span, too.

We know Tua Tagovailoa’s limitations, but he’s still twice the quarterback of anyone on the Saints roste,r and they have legitimately excellent playmakers in Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. No team in the NFL has covered the spread fewer times than the Saints, who have done it just three times. 

If I had to pick a Super Bowl winner at this very moment, I’d pick the Rams. In Sean McVay they have one of the brightest minds in the sport, Matthew Stafford is an elite quarterback and the receiving duo of Davante Adams and Puka Nacua is the best in the NFL. They’re on the road at an improving Panthers team, but they should still cover here, even with the line being into double digits.

The Rams have covered the spread in five of their past six games and are riding high, playing some of the best football of any team in the league. The offense ranks top in DVOA, with the defensive unit also ranking top.

The Seahawks are tied with the Rams for the best record against the spread in the NFL this season, covering in 72.7% of games and failing to cover just three times. They’ve also covered in all but one game on home soil, with Lumen Field giving them a real edge over their opposition. 

The Seahawks have covered in five of their past six games, but what really leaps out here is the chance to take on the Vikings. They’ve failed to cover the spread in five of their past six games and have looked genuinely awful with JJ McCarthy at quarterback. He’s questionable to play on Sunday, but if he doesn’t, then it’ll be Max Brosmer starting, a man with no starts in the NFL and a middling college career.

Neither the Bills or the Steelers have covered the spread in even 50% of their games, but we’re banking on the Bills setting out for vengeance here. A month ago the Bills beat the Chiefs and put themselves as front-runners to lift the Lombardi, but have since lost to the Dolphins and Texans. Post-Dolphins defeat, they smashed the Bucs, winning by 12 points and easily covering the 5.5 spread.

Last week they lost by four points to the Texans, but that was based largely on the Texans' excellent defense, which ranks 2nd in DVOA in the NFL. The Steelers' defense isn’t anywhere near that level, and I’m fully expecting Josh Allen and co to go out and send a message. This is a strong offense and one that should not only cover against the Steelers but by a margin.