Despite my fandom, the Washington Commanders have been one of my favourite teams to fade this season. While a lot of the attention goes towards the loss of Jayden Daniels, the lack of defense is the real story here. Washington has changed their scheme a lot this season, but they are currently relying on a 2-high safety heavy zone defense after a ton of injuries.

After losing both Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos last week, one of the worst secondaries in football is somehow getting worse. The Dolphins actually bounced back from losing Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle has stepped up as a fantastic WR1 replacement. 

Washington obviously are also playing without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin, two of their best offensive players. Washington will need to run the ball to win, but Miami has actually sold out to stop the run with success this year and I expect them to do the same here. In a game where neither team has a very good defense, I’ll simply take the better offense with the Dolphins, there's no possible way to trust Washington right now.

Both of these teams have MVP candidate quarterbacks, and I expect that to be on full display in a fun matchup between two playoff contenders. I don’t really see any reasons to fade either side, but I think the total is the best way to attack this market.

James Cook has been one of the best running backs in football this year, and the Bills have really leaned on him, taking some pressure away from Josh Allen. The problem with that is the Buccaneers are one of the best rush defenses in football, meaning teams are passing against them at a top five rate this year. The more Josh Allen pass attempts, the better for an over.  

The Buccaneers, on the other side, seem to play to the level of their competition. They rely on explosive plays, and the Bills secondary has plenty of weaknesses. With two teams that can score quickly, this could sneakily be the highest scoring game of the weekend.

I get that the Bengals still don’t have Joe Burrow, but Joe Flacco has been a great stopgap. While they clearly have a bad defense, they have one of the more consistent offenses in football, absolutely stacked with talent, especially at the WR position. Even if the Steelers offense looks better than last week's awful performance, I still don’t see how this team covers by margin. 

While the Tomlin lead Steelers have historically been a great defense, their lack of ability to adapt has held them back. They have an elite defensive line, but their secondary has struggled in coverage and allowed WR1’s to destroy them. They also just don’t change their scheme much, allowing tons of 1v1 press man coverage. This game screams a Bengals comeback cover, and we just saw them do it in primetime a couple weeks ago.

The Texans aren't playing at their best currently, even after a crazy comeback win against a Jaguars team that they should have lost by 20+ against. I’ve always been a little higher on Davis Mills than consensus, meaning the first half of last week's game was humiliating, and the second half was vindicating.

While I’m not going to claim he is some magnificent upgrade, I do think he does a much better job of forcing the talented players the ball. The Titans' offense, on the other hand, is awful, and they now have to play the best defense in football. How are you supposed to cover a spread when you can’t even score a touchdown? I get the Texans aren't performing to their best, but neither is the Titans' whole offensive unit.

Cam Ward struggles against pressure and now he gets an elite pass rush, I don’t see the Titans stealing this game with their lacklustre offense. The Texans are used to playing in these ugly games and I expect them to take care of business.