Before the season I thought the Bills had a solid chance to go the whole distance, but they’ve been wildly inconsistent all season. When they’re hot, they’re red hot and scorching, but it’s very hard to predict when that’s going to be. They’ve only won five of eight road games this season, which is a concern.

The Jags are riding high on an eight-game winning streak, and they fully deserve those victories. Liam Coen has breathed new life into Trevor Lawrence, who’s my Most Improved Player of the Year award winner this season. What really stands out is their defense, who’ve gone from one of the worst last season to ranking 6th in defensive DVOA this year. That and the homefield advantage should be enough to see the Jaguars reach the next round.

When I’m looking at potential upsets in this Wild Card Round, this is one of the games that really stands out. I’m really not sold on this Eagles team. They’ve lost over a third of their games, and they’ve done so in a terrible division. They’re not the same team that won the Super Bowl last year. The offensive line is far worse, and they rank firmly middle of the pack, 16th of 32 in Expected Points Added.

The Niners rank 8th in that metric and have shown a noticeable improvement as the season has progressed. They’ve finished the season strongly, which has made their earlier struggles go slightly under the radar, but this is a team that missed a lot of key starters at points in the year. They’re not healthier and are dangerous. They’re 7-2 against the spread when they’re on the road, and I think they cover here, and potentially win the game outright.

The Patriots are heavy favourites for this game against the Chargers and have been given a 10-point handicap on the spread. I can see why the Patriots are so popular, after all, they did finish with 14 wins and have an MVP candidate in Drake Maye, but I can’t escape the feeling they’re not as good as advertised.

The Patriots schedule was very easy. They only played three games against opponents who reached the play-offs. Twice against the Bills, who are in their division, where they finished 1-1, and then a defeat to the Steelers. The Chargers defense are ranked 10th in DVOA, whilst the Pats D are in the bottom third. The Patriots offence is powerful enough to get the win, but I want to play it safe and not take the handicap.

We’re set for a high-scoring game here. This Patriots offense has put up some big numbers this season and is ranked 3rd in DVOA for a reason. They’re averaging 28.8 points per game this season, and despite a weaker schedule, it’s still impressive how they’ve been able to dominate teams.

The Over has gone 11-6 in Patriots games, but with their defense struggling this season, it’s easy to see the Chargers, with Justin Herbert under centre, putting up a reasonable score if this turns into a shoot-out.