The Bucs are 7-8 on the season and have looked wildly inconsistent, with some great performances backed up by some shocking defeats. They’re now on the bubble and simply need to snap their three-game losing streak if they want to reach the play-offs. The good news is that they are finally looking healthy with Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin all healthy.

I was fairly impressed with the Dolphins last week as Quinn Ewers made his first start, but this is a team with nothing to play for, against the Bucs, who absolutely do. The Bucs are tied for the worst record against the spread, and I just can’t be confident backing them to cover, but with Baker Mayfield’s hero-ball, I can be confident in them winning this hugely important game. Bucs W.

The Jaguars are on the league’s 2nd-longest winning streak right now and might just be the NFL’s in-form team. They’ve earned a play-off spot, but with the Texans on their tai,l they need to keep winning to take the AFC South title. The defense has improved since last year, but it’s Trevor Lawrence who is the difference maker. He’s grown so much this season under Liam Coen and is showing the markings of a quarterback who could be truly elite.

The Jags won 36-19 against the Colts earlier this month, but that game saw Daniel Jones go down injured, and with Phillip Rivers looking serviceable at QB, the score will be closer this time around. However, the Jaguars have now covered the spread in six straight games, are 10-5 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS when they’re the favourite.

The Titans might be 3-12 on the season, but this feels like a team that are on the up. They’ve won two of their previous three games, and they’re finding some momentum. Having a rookie quarterback and rookie pass-catching corps, alongside a poor offensive line, was always going to mean this season was a long one, but they’re improving every week now and don’t look like pushovers any more.

In the past three weeks, we’ve seen them beat the Browns and Chiefs, and put up a solid 24-point performance in defeat to a good 49ers team. They’ve covered the spread in five of their past seven, and I fancy them to do it again against the Saints in Nashville.

The Eagles are 10-5 and locked into a play-off spot, but they’re really not playing that well at all, and it’s hard to see them repeating last year’s Super Bowl win. The offense doesn’t even crack the top 10 per DVOA, and the offensive line play is way, way down on what we’ve seen previously. They beat a banged up Commanders last week, but that really didn’t tell us anything given Josh Johnson was in at QB.

Meanwhile, the Bills are looking frisky. We’re seeing the team start to resemble the juggernaut they can be, which is scary for the rest of the league. They’re now on a four-game winning streak, and in the past two weeks, they did enough to beat a great Browns defense and beat their divisional rivals, which gives them a chance to win the AFC East if they keep winning, and they should on home soil here.