Bo Nix is a quarterback I have had a hard time trusting since his college days. While he was able to turn things around at Oregon with a dynamic screen-filled offense, I still didn’t trust his ability to throw the ball down the field at an NFL level. We now have a solid enough sample size to give Bo Nix some credit for being a solid rookie, but it’s still pretty clear he has a long way to go in the passing department. They now get a strong Chiefs defense that ranks second DVOA vs the run and sixth DVOA vs the pass.

There is one statistic that Bo Nix rates out very highly in, sack avoidance. Despite a weaker offensive line he’s been able to evade sacks at a league high rate and this is going to create some extra rushing attempts when your escaping the pocket to avoid pressure. He’s over this number in 5 of 9 games this season and has surprisingly looked really comfortable as a runner. When an offense is normally struggling to make things happen the QB will have to do things on his own, and I think Nix calls his own number and clears this number fairly easily

This number has now gotten low enough where I’m comfortable with the buy low opportunity on Pop Douglas. While the Patriots offense is one that may be hard to follow at times, the lack of talent in the wide receiver room does create a lot of extra opportunities to go around. After getting sick in London he faced brutal coverage matchups with the Jets and Titans, still seeing 12 targets over those 2 games. The Bears secondary is strong but has been dealing with injuries and some benching issues so far, Douglas can take advantage on those short routes over the middle.

I also don’t think they are pricing in Drake Maye as enough of an upgrade. On throws that went 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage, Maye ranks 8th among 39 qualified QBs in ‘catchable ball’ rate. He’s looked much more capable of creating explosive plays and making defenses respect the wide receiver core a bit more. This team was fairly one dimensional with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback but Maye looks to be the future already. We saw Maye talk very highly about Douglas, comparing him to the shifty Josh Downs that he played with in college.

While the Bills have been one of the best teams in the league this season, they are smaller favorites than expected against the Colts, who have tried to revitalise there season with benching of Anthony Richardson. While Flacco didn’t look great on SNF, the coaching staff didn’t confirm that he will continue to be the starter going forward so no quarterback controversy yet. While Flacco isn’t perfect, he’s a consistent accurate passer that will have double the passing completions Richardson would, making this huge for receivers.

Josh Downs continues to be one of my favorite slot receivers in the league, he’s incredibly shifty and can constantly win 1v1 matchups in the slot. His biggest problem has really been usage, where the Colts have gone to two wide receiver sets and with multiple tight ends leaving him off the field. This Bills match presents a good matchup with heavy 2-high safety usage. Additionally, the Bills have allowed the 4th fewest years to outside receivers, making it a tougher matchup for Pittman and Pierce on the outside.

The Commanders and Steelers face off in a local rivalry game. Expect a great game for props with two teams that have overperformed expectations thus far. While he is recovering from a rib injury, Jayden Daniels has been good the last two weeks and it should be a minor pain tolerance issue. Daniels is already a willing runner, and those skills will need to be on display here. Pittsburgh has one of the best pass rushes in the league and Daniels has relied on his legs more in high pressure rate situations.

While Jayden Daniels came out of college known as the best runner in the draft class, his passing is obviously what has caught everyone by surprise with how impressive it is off the bat. With the Joey Porter Jr lines up across from Terry McClaurin on the outside I’m worried about how Washington will constantly generate pass plays. This could be a game where they rely more on the run, but with that strong Steelers defensive line they will need to get creative. That’s where Daniels comes in, with plethora of read option and draw plays already in the playbook and ready to be deployed.