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Sunderland v Aston Villa 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Sunderland v Aston Villa 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 19 September, 20254 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Sunderland welcome Aston Villa with the Black Cats hoping to build on their two wins at the Stadium Light so far.

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Sunderland v Aston Villa Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Sunderland v Aston Villa
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 3.77

Ollie Watkins to be Fouled 1+ times

Watkins has won six fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.53 per 90). He’s been starved of service in the early weeks of the season as Aston Villa still hunt their first goal of the campaign in the Premier League.

Watkins’ ability to win fouls mainly arises from how mobile he is compared to other Premier League strikers. Watkins has the speed and agility to cause conventional centre backs problems, and is deceptively strong in aerial duels as well which can aid him in winning fouls here.

I’d pay particular attention to his duels with Omar Alderete who averaged 1.00 fouls committed in LaLiga last season, picking up eight yellow cards in the process. Watkins averaged 1.14 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last season which shows that his ability to win fouls remains consistent over a larger sample size.

Sunderland Over 0.5 Goals

Sunderland have scored two or more goals in both of their games at the Stadium of Light this season. They recorded a 3-0 win over West Ham on the opening weekend of the season before clinching a dramatic win against Brentford to maintain their perfect record in front of their home fans.

Aston Villa conceded 31 goals across their 19 away matches last season (1.63 per game). This was 11 more than they conceded at Villa Park last season which indicates that Villa are a lot more vulnerable at the back on the road.

There is real pressure on Aston Villa at the moment which Sunderland can take advantage of. Aston Villa are yet to score their first goal of the Premier League season which is a frustration which will increase with every minute for the away side. This could lead to a desperation which the Black Cats can make the most of, as they have done in their other home games so far this season.

Sunderland's Goalkeeper to make 3+ Saves

Robin Roefs has really caught my eye in the early few weeks of the season. I was a bit surprised that Patterson wasn’t given an opportunity in the Premier League but it is clear now that Roefs is an upgrade on the keeper that Sunderland had in the Championship.

Roefs was forced into making six saves against Crystal Palace last time out and was awarded man of the match for his performance. He ended the game with a goals prevented tally of 1.36 which shows that the shots he was keeping out weren’t of low quality, these were mostly sensational saves.

Roefs has been called into action on 13 occasions across his four Premier League matches so far this season (3.25 per 90). Even though Aston Villa haven’t been able to click in the final third yet, you would expect them to have the quality to end their goal drought against a newly promoted side but not without drawing at least three saves from Roefs in the process.

Noah Sadiki to commit 1+ Fouls

Sadiki is one of my favourite players in this Sunderland side, he’s committed four fouls across his four Premier League matches this season (1.02 per 90) with at least one foul committed in three of these games.

Sadiki covers a lot of ground and is tasked with a defensive role in this Sunderland midfield alongside Granit Xhaka with Habib Diarra pushing up a bit higher. Sadiki will be facing up against one of the strongest midfield setups in the Premier League when it comes to winning fouls.

No side won more fouls in the Premier League last season than Aston Villa (13.7 per game) which is a record that suggests that Sadiki will be in for a busy afternoon here. 

His direct opponent is likely to be John McGinn who is an expert in using his body to win fouls - he’s won five fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.40 per 90) and averaged 2.78 fouls won per 90 across his 34 Premier League appearances last season.

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Sunderland v Aston Villa Best Longshot Bets
  • Sunderland v Aston Villa
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
3 Selections @ 33.69

Sunderland to commit 12+ Fouls

Jack Grealish looks back to his best in the early weeks of his Everton career. He picked up the Premier League player of the month award for August, mainly for the four assists he’s registered since joining the Toffees.

Grealish has always been more of a creative player than a direct shot threat. He’s excellent in 1v1 duels and will savour the opportunity to take on Frimpong here, who is very forward-thinking and will give Grealish space when Liverpool are caught up the pitch, which has happened on a few occasions already this season.

Grealish has created 10 chances across his three starts for David Moyes’ side (3.15 per 90), which shows the consistency with which Grealish is creating chances at the moment. He will get opportunities here, seeing as Liverpool have had early teething problems in trying to organise their defensive line.

Some of Grealish’s other underlying metrics this season paint a picture of a player with confidence reinstilled; he’s had 30 touches in the opposition box and won 11 fouls, as well as completing eight dribbles.

Sunderland Double Chance

Aston Villa’s away record from last season and the early stages of this season is really off putting. Not only did they concede 11 more goals on the road compared to their games at Villa Park, they also scored 10 fewer goals which is Villa’s main issue at the moment.

It’s bordering on ridiculous that Villa are yet to score their first goal of the Premier League season seeing as we are four games into the campaign. They did get their first goal of the season against Brentford in the Carabao Cup during the week but even that game ended in disappointment as Villa drew the game 1-1 and were knocked out of the cup on penalties.

Sunderland have won both of their games at the Stadium of Light in the Premier League this season and will gain confidence with every positive result. There won’t be many opportunities to play Aston Villa in their current state and I think Sunderland can make the most of it.

Omar Alderete to be shown a Card

Alderete is a bit of a nutcase but we are yet to see that side of him in the Premier League. He collected eight yellow cards across his 34 appearances in LaLiga last season while averaging 1.0 fouls committed per 90.

This could be the perfect game for Alderete to show a bit more of his wild side seeing as he is playing against a Villa side that won more fouls and drew more cards than any other side in the Premier League last season.

Newly promoted sides regularly finish high in the ranks when it comes to cautions which is an expected correlation seeing as they are the underdogs in the majority of games they play. Alderete will be up against Ollie Watkins who has won six fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.53 per 90).

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📂 Sunderland v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet

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📈 Sunderland v Aston Villa Tactics

Sunderland have started superbly for a newly promoted side with just one defeat from their opening four matches. Starting strongly is always crucial when you have just come up from the Championship, the longer the wait goes on for a first win or big performances the less it looks like a team is going to survive.

Sunderland have claimed two scalps at the Stadium of Light already in the form of Brentford and West Ham. It does look like Sunderland’s home games will be crucial if they are to survive in the Premier League this season and they’ve made a good start in that regard. 

Regis Le Bris is clearly under no illusions of how difficult this test is. His side have been setting up to be hard to beat in the first instance and not too expressive in their own half, perhaps learning from the mistakes of the newly promoted sides from last season. 

Granit Xhaka looks to be their most important signing of the window. He has a quality and calmness which isn’t found in every corner of the Sunderland squad and will be crucial to their chances of surviving this season. Roefs in goal has also caught my eye, a reliable keeper is also a necessity to survive and they may have that in Roefs based on his early season performances.

Aston Villa look really stale and it doesn’t look like Unai Emery has any immediate answers to stop the rot. Aston Villa are the only side in the Premier League yet to score a goal which is really concerning given that we are approaching matchday five of the season.

It’s also concerning because of the real attacking threat that Aston Villa have in the side. Watkins, Rogers, Malen, Guessand, Elliot and Sancho are all players capable of performing consistently for Villa but they aren’t currently being platformed in the most effective way.

Villa are a bit predictable and this could be due to the fact that Emery’s system is one that can be worked out now that he has been working on it for a few seasons in the Premier League. The narrow wingers and lack of speed in the side make it easy for sides to sit in low blocks and soak up Villa pressure with their 1-0 defeat against Brentford being an excellent example of this.


🏁 Ref Watch

Samuel Barrott

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

24.50

6.00

0.00

Stats are taken per 90 minutes for all of Barrott's 2 matches so far across all competitions this season.


📊 Sunderland v Aston Villa Stats

  • Sunderland have won both of their Premier League games at the Stadium of Light this season.

  • Wilson Isidior has come off the bench to score twice for Sunderland this season.

  • Robin Roefs has maintained a 81.2% save percentage across the opening four games, keeping two clean sheets.

  • Aston Villa are the only side yet to score a goal in the Premier League this season.

  • Aston Villa conceded 11 more goals on the road than they did at home last season. 

  • Aston Villa also crashed out of the EFL Cup during the week on penalties against Brentford.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Premier League Predictions and Sunderland v Aston Villa Betting Stats for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Sunday's fixtures, including Quick Previews for Bristol City v Oxford, Partick Thistle v Celtic, and Mallorca v Atletico Madrid, as well as Bet Builders for Bournemouth v Newcastle and Arsenal v Man City

On top of that, we also have a Premier League Player Prop Treble, a Teams to Score Acca, and Sunday Premier League Treble.

You can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers here if you're after some free bets. We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer, and the SBK Sign Up Offer.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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