With the third round of Premier League games completed and the transfer window closed, we can get a clearer picture of how each team might shape up this season. Looking at both team and player xG, we can see who has been underperforming or overperforming in front of goal in the latest matches, as well as the wider trends emerging across the campaign. This should help to see what is likely to happen in the round of games.

As a reminder, xG (expected goals) measures the quality of a shooting chance by quantifying the likelihood of it resulting in a goal, with 1 representing a 100% chance and 0 meaning no chance at all.

xG overperformance is calculated as goals scored minus xG. A negative number shows a player was expected to score more than they actually did, while a positive number indicates they scored more than expected.

Team xG Analysis

🟣 Aston Villa

Villa lost 3-0 last time out against Crystal Palace, although they only lost the xG battle 1.1-2.7. Surprisingly, given this xG, Aston Villa had over double the shots of Palace with 13 compared to their six, this created a significant difference in their average xG per shot with 0.08 for Villa and 0.45 for Palace.

The penalty taken by Mateta in the first half, worth 0.79xG, boosted Palace’s numbers, but even without it, they still would have come out on top.

Next up is Everton, who themselves showed defensive vulnerabilities last weekend. Against Wolves, they conceded twice from just 1.1xG, meaning Wolves outperformed their xG. As you can see in the graph below, Villa have failed to do this once all season.

That lack of cutting edge has been the story of their campaign so far. They’ve created over 1 xG in each of their last two matches but remain the only Premier League side yet to score, with every other team finding the net at least twice.

xG Underperformance by Matchweek – Aston Villa

🔵 Man City

Manchester City, along with Aston Villa, both featured in this article last week, showing a repeat of their underperformance in matchweek 2. This time for City, this underperformance was half what it was last week, as they did score one against Brighton, although they still lost the game due to an 89th-minute winner.

Once again, City’s xG was concentrated in a handful of players. It was mainly distributed to their attacking players, with only three players getting more than 0.1xG. Specifically, it was concentrated on Erling Haaland, who had seven shots, more than the rest of the team combined.

This heavy reliance makes City’s results swing with Haaland’s form. When he is clinical, they tend to overperform their xG, but when he struggles, the whole team often falls short. The graphs below highlight how the trends in his xG performance closely track City’s overall performance.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Manchester City

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Erling Haaland

🔴 Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest only underperformed their xG in their 3-0 defeat to West Ham, in their other matches, they overperformed, meaning in total, they have still overperformed their xG this season.

Looking specifically at their game against West Ham, their shots were well spread out amongst the players, with seven different players taking their 11 shots. Although, with losing Anthony Elanga in the transfer window, their main set piece taker last season, they have seemingly lost some of their threat from set pieces. Against West Ham, they only created 0.11xG from the two shots they had from set pieces.

What Forest struggled with the most in their shooting was having their shots blocked, with West Ham’s defenders blocking five of their shots. This meant that only three of their shots were on target.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Nottingham Forest

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 3

Player xG Analysis

🔴 Chris Wood

Staying with Nottingham Forest, their striker, Chris Wood, registered the most shots against West Ham, despite the team’s attempts being spread across several players.

All three of his shots came from his only three touches inside the opposition box, showing how decisive he is when he gets into dangerous areas.

Although all his shots came from open play, two of them were headers, whilst one was from a counterattack, which he took with his right foot. This shows his ability to fashion chances from multiple scenarios.

He also underperformed his xG last week against Crystal Palace by 0.2, although in the first game against Brentford, he performed well, scoring two goals for just 1xG, generating an overperformance of 1.

This trend is shown in the last two seasons as he has overperformed his xG:

• 2024/25: 20 goals from 13.4xG

• 2023/24: 12 goals from 11.9xG

That history suggests that although he is only slightly overperforming xG this season, it fits with his longer-term pattern of converting more than the xG suggests.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Chris Wood

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 3 (Strikers)

🔴 Amad Diallo

Amad played at right wing back against Burnley, yet still managed to create 0.6xG. All of this came from three shots taken from central positions. Across his other two Premier League appearances, he has taken another three shots, equating to 3.1 shots per 90 minutes, a high number for his position.

All three shots were taken on his left foot, with one being saved, one being blocked, and one being missed. This missed one was in terms of xG, his best chance with an xG of 0.4.

Although he played the full 90 minutes against Burnley, his other Premier League appearances this season have been limited to 35 and 52 minutes.

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 3 (Wing Backs & Wide Midfielders)

🟣 Ollie Watkins

Ollie Watkins has accumulated 1.1xG already this season, but is yet to score. This is unlikely to continue as over the last three seasons, he has on average, slightly overperformed his xG in the Premier League:

2024/25: 16 goals from 15.5xG

2023/24: 19 goals from 16.9xG

2022/23: 15 goals from 16.5xG

In his last match against Crystal Palace, he had his biggest xG underperformance of the season at 0.6xG. He had three shots, two missed the target and Dean Henderson saved the other.

Watkins also carries penalty-taking responsibility. Although Villa have yet to win one this season, he converted both of his Premier League spot-kicks last year.

Villa’s deadline-day additions of Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho will likely give Watkins even more service from both central and wide areas, providing him with greater opportunities to end this early-season drought.

xG Underperformance by Matchweek – Ollie Watkins

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 3 (Strikers)

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