With the fifth round of Premier League games now complete, most teams are starting to bed in their new signings and settle into their tactical approaches. The early patterns of form are beginning to emerge, giving us a clearer picture of how sides are shaping up this season.

This article will look at both xG from teams and players, to see who has been under, or overperforming in front of goal in the latest matches, as well as the broader trends emerging across the campaign. This should help to see what is likely to happen in the round of games.

As a reminder, xG (expected goals) measures the quality of a shooting chance by quantifying the likelihood of it resulting in a goal, with 1 representing a 100% chance and 0 meaning no chance at all.

xG overperformance is calculated as goals scored minus xG. A negative number shows a player was expected to score more than they actually did, while a positive number indicates they scored more than expected.

Team xG Analysis

🟡 Wolves

In a game that went strongly against the xG, Wolves lost 3-1 to Leeds despite coming out on top in the underlying numbers, 1.8 to 0.5. Unsurprisingly, they also dominated the shot count, with 16 efforts compared to Leeds’ six.

Most of Wolves’ attempts came from good areas, with only three of the 16 taken from outside the box. However, this also meant Leeds were often in a position to block, with a quarter of Wolves’ shots shut down before reaching the keeper.

The opportunities Wolves had were spread around their team a lot, with nine players having a shot. One likely reason for this high spread is that their top striker, Strand Larsen, came on at halftime, having been injured for the last few weeks. Last season, he was their top scorer, with 14 goals from 10.3xG. His return to full fitness could be key, and he is likely to play a bigger role in next week’s late Saturday clash with Tottenham.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Wolves

⚪ Leeds United

On the other side of Wolves’ defeat, Leeds showed how quickly xG trends can swing. Having underperformed their xG in every game this season up to now, this was an example of how over or underperformances often balance out over the course of a campaign. With this in mind, we can look to see how Leeds managed to overperform their xG in this game and what this might mean for their future games.

As said above, Leeds only had six shots in this game and generated 0.5xG, which equated to an xG per shot of just 0.08, lower than their opponents. Four of these shots came from outside of the box, with one of these resulting in a goal, which was the long-range free kick from summer signing, Anton Stach.

The other two goals were scored from their only two shots from inside the box, again, both from summer signings in the form of Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor.

Set pieces played little role beyond the free kick, as Leeds didn’t win a single corner, the primary reason why no defenders had a shot. With the score already 3-1 at halftime, Leeds’ second-half threat was minimal, with just one shot, worth 0.1 xG.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Leeds United

🔴 Liverpool

In their 2-1 win in the Merseyside derby at the weekend, Liverpool overperformed their xG by 1.1. As you can see in the graph below, this is a feat they have achieved in all but one Premier League match this season, demonstrating a case where a team might be able to overperform their xG over a prolonged period.

Although not at their current rate of overperformance, Liverpool did outperform their xG last year, scoring 86 goals from 83.5 xG. The arrival of Alexander Isak, who himself outperformed his xG last year, could help extend or even boost that trend.

Looking into their recent game against Everton more, they had many of their shots blocked, five out of 11, with nine of these coming from inside the box. The majority of their chances came from the right-hand side of the pitch in this game, with only two coming from the left and nine from the right.

A major issue with this translating into their next match is their opposition, which is Crystal Palace, who, although conceding 4.7xG, have conceded the joint fewest goals in the league at just two, showing it will be a challenge for Liverpool to continue overperforming their xG.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Liverpool

Premier League Clubs' xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 5

Player xG Analysis

⚪ Xavi Simons

Simons, having recently transferred to Tottenham from RB Leipzig, has been slowly introduced to the Premier League and has not played a full 90 minutes yet. In the recent match against West Ham, he featured for 29 minutes and generated 0.3xG.

He managed three shots during this time, of which two missed the target and the remaining one was saved by Brighton’s goalkeeper, Verbruggen. All of these chances came from open play from relatively central positions.

He is used to playing in multiple positions in attacking areas, including behind the striker and on the wings. Next week, against the bottom-of-the-table Wolves, he will be hoping to play a bigger role in this match and possibly start in one of these positions.

He has scored several goals and generally has outperformed his xG over the last few seasons:

• 2024/25: 10 goals, 5.1xG (RB Leipzig, Bundesliga)

• 2023/24: 8 goals, 8.3xG (RB Leipzig, Bundesliga)

• 2022/23: 19 goals, 15.3xG (PSV, Eredivisie)

Player xG Underperformance – Gameweek 5

🟣 Jarrod Bowen

In West Ham’s loss to Crystal Palace, Bowen scored their only goal, massively overperforming his xG of 0.2. This has been a theme of this season, as he has only provided 0.7xG across the five games, meaning an xG of 0.13 per 90 minutes, down from 0.26 last season. Although some of this could be attributed to creating fewer chances for himself, it is likely more due to the service he is receiving from the rest of his team.

Even so, he has made the most of what he has had, scoring twice from that 0.7xG. The two goals also show his variety in finishing, with one with his stronger left foot from outside the box, the other was a header from a corner.

However, if this lack of service continues, he is unlikely to be able to maintain this goal-scoring record, especially considering their next match is against Everton, who have a strong defensive record this season, having conceded only five goals.

xG Over/Underperformance by Matchweek – Jarrod Bowen

xG Overperformance - Gameweek 5 (Wingers)

🔴 Wilson Isidor

Sunderland’s striker has started very well in his first Premier League season, with three goals from his opening five games. In his most recent match against Aston Villa, he got his highest xG by far in the season, with 0.6xG. Although, in other games he has overperformed his xG even more, for example, in matchweek one, he only received 0.04xG from his only shot and scored with it.

This massive overperformance of his 1xG for three goals is almost definitely unsustainable, especially given his record in the Championship last season of 12 goals from 15.1xG.

Against Villa, he showed both promise and limitations. He took a season high six shots, two of which were on target, but five of those efforts came on his stronger right foot. This highlights both his willingness to get into scoring positions and his current dependence on one side of his game.

xG Underperformance by Matchweek – Wilson Isidor

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 5 (Strikers)

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