With two rounds of Premier League games now completed, we can take a deeper look at the xG numbers to see which teams and players have overperformed or underperformed in front of goal. This helps highlight whose early-season goalscoring form may shift, and who could shape up as better or worse betting options for this weekend.

As a reminder, xG (expected goals) measures the quality of a shooting chance by quantifying the likelihood of it resulting in a goal, by giving every shot a value between 0 and 1. The combined total of those values makes up a team's xG total for a certain game.

xG overperformance is calculated as goals scored minus xG. A negative number shows a player was expected to score more than they actually did, while a positive number indicating they scored more than expected.

Teams

🔵 Brighton

Brighton played Everton on Sunday in their first game at their new stadium. Everton came out on top in most of the stats, having more shots with 13 compared to Brighton’s 11, and generating more xG with 2.4 against 1.6. Despite Brighton’s efforts, the match ended 2-0 to Everton.

The biggest missed chance for Brighton came from their penalty, which was saved by Jordan Pickford. They also failed to convert the other two big chances they created.

Apart from their penalty, Brighton did not create any shots from set pieces, while Everton managed to produce 0.36 xG from theirs.

Another issue for Brighton was the distribution of their chances. The majority of their xG was concentrated in just two players, Danny Welbeck and Matt O’Riley, who together accounted for 1.2 of their total. The remaining 0.4 was spread across the rest of the side. For example, Yankuba Minteh, their right winger who played the full 90 minutes, managed only 0.08 xG.

🔵 Man City

In Manchester City’s defeat to Tottenham, Spurs had more shots overall and more on target, yet City still won the xG battle 1.6 to 1.1. The final score, however, was 2-0 to Spurs.

One factor was the nature of City’s shooting. Four of their 10 efforts came from outside the box, compared to just two of Spurs’ 12. City also struggled to create high-quality chances once they fell behind. After conceding both goals in the first half, they generated only 25% of their xG after the break, despite taking half of their shots in the second half, suggesting likely desperation rather than control in their attacking play. As they took on lower probability shots.

Set pieces were one of City’s strongest ways to create. They created 0.5 xG from seven corners, far more than Spurs’ 0.14 from their own set pieces. Yet even these chances weren’t enough, with Tottenham goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario making four key saves and the defence blocking three further attempts.

The result was a sharp contrast to the previous week, when City beat Wolves 4-0 and outperformed their xG by 1.6.

🟣 Aston Villa

In their 1-0 defeat to Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium, the xG battle was even, with both sides generating 1.2 xGF (expected goals for). Brentford made the difference by scoring through their new signing from Bournemouth, Dango Ouattara.

The way each team generated that xG was very different. Villa took 17 shots, averaging just 0.07 xG per attempt, while Brentford averaged 0.13 from fewer efforts. Showing that Villa adopted more of a shoot-on-sight approach, rather than waiting to create higher-quality openings. That was most evident by their number of shots from outside the box, with Aston Villa taking five compared to just one from Brentford.

Brentford’s defending was also key. They blocked eight of Villa’s efforts, almost half of their total. Only two of Villa’s shots were on target, leaving them with a low shot accuracy of 12%.

Villa’s xG was spread fairly evenly across the team. No player registered 0.5 or more, but seven different players reached at least 0.1 xG. That included centre backs Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres, who combined for 0.3 xG.

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 2

Players

🔵 Danny Welbeck

The biggest contributor to his xG underperformance of 1.6 was his missed penalty in the 77th minute, worth 0.79 xG. His remaining xG came from just one other shot, taken just outside the six-yard box, valued at 0.8 xG, which he put over the bar.

Last season, Welbeck slightly overperformed his xG of 9.6 by scoring 10 goals. Both numbers are above average for Premier League strikers, although his shot volume was low, averaging just 2.5 per 90 minutes. This likely shows a tendency to wait for higher-quality chances closer to the goal, rather than taking long-range efforts.

That was also clear against Everton, where he took just one open play shot across the 90 minutes, which was a high-quality chance worth 0.8 xG.

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 2 (Strikers)

🟣 Ollie Watkins

Although Aston Villa’s xG against Brentford was spread across several players, the highest total went to their striker Ollie Watkins, with 0.4 xG.

That total came from four shots, spread across his head and both feet, showing his willingness to shoot with any part of his body. None were on target, but all came from inside the box, and from only six touches in the area, highlighting his instinct as a striker to take chances whenever they arrive.

Last season, Watkins was the 7th top scorer in the Premier League, overperforming his xG of 15.5 to score 16 goals. Most of his chances came from central or left-sided positions. He also scored both penalties he took, and he is likely to remain Villa’s first-choice taker this season.

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 2 (Strikers)

🔴 Antoine Semenyo

With Tavernier scoring early for Bournemouth and Wolves going down to 10 men in the second half, Bournemouth controlled much of the game, having 14 shots to Wolves’ six and dominating the xG with 1.3 to 0.5. Semenyo played a key role in that dominance, assisting the opener and carrying the main attacking threat for his side.

He had more shots than any other player on the pitch with four, though only one was on target. These four shots added up to 0.7 xG, where one was saved, one was blocked, and the remaining two missed the target. Importantly, two of those attempts were classed as big chances, the only ones Bournemouth created, showing how central he was to their attack.

The reliance on him was also reflected in the xG spread across the squad, with the next highest Bournemouth player registering just 0.2.

xG Over/Underperformance - Gameweek 2 (Wingers)

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