Morgan Gibbs-White has been brilliant for Forest this season, netting a hat-trick against Burnley at home last time out to take his goal tally for the season in the Premier League to 12 goals across his 32 starts - eight more goals than any other Forest player this term.

Morgan Gibbs-White has directly contributed to 38% of the goals that Forest have scored in the Premier League this season, suggesting that without the 26-year-old, Forest may have already been relegated to the Championship. He’s taken 73 shots in the Premier League this term (2.33 per 90), seeing 27 of these attempts find the target (0.86 per 90).

Both of these metrics have increased since last season (1.95 shots per 90, 0.70 shots on target per 90), suggesting that Gibbs-White is also more confident to take aim this term. Gibbs-White came on at half time when these sides met earlier in the season and managed three shots, I’d expect a similar shot volume from here as Forest look to collect more crucial points in the relegation battle. 

Elliot Anderson was fouled twice when these sides met earlier in the season, a common occurrence for the midfielder who has been one of the most consistently impressive performers in the Premier League this term. 

Anderson has drawn 72 fouls across his 33 starts in the Premier League this season (2.19 per 90), more than any other Forest player. He is averaging just under 90 touches per 90 in the Premier League this campaign, which is a significant stat when it comes to winning fouls as it shows just how central Anderson is to Forest’s build up play - making him a target to be hauled to the ground.

He will be up against a combative midfield trio of Xhaka, Sadiki and Diarra here who have all performed to a very decent standard this term and combine to commit 2.94 fouls per 90. Anderson should be their main target, and Diarra (1.26 fouls per 90) should particularly struggle to contain Anderson at times who has been fouled twice in four of his last five Premier League appearances.

This is a huge game in the context of the relegation battle in the Premier League, and it’s particularly important that this game is being played on Friday evening - meaning that Forest could move could move eight points clear of the drop zone ahead of West Ham and Spurs playing, after Leeds moved nine points clear of the drop zone with a point against Bournemouth during the week.

Goal difference will be important too, West Ham have by far the worst goal difference of any of the sides still battling to survive (-17), but Tottenham and Forest are separated by just two goals in the negative which could be the deciding factor if the race remains this tight for the rest of the campaign. Forest have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, remaining unbeaten across all of these games - most recently reaching the semi finals of the Europa League.

Sunderland have seen 37 goals across their 16 home games in the Premier League this season (2.3 per game), and saw seven goals last time out as they fell to a 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa on the road.

Nottingham Forest are averaging 5.36 corners per game in the Premier League this season, a metric that drops slightly but remains above the line we need when they are on their travels (4.44 per game). Forest racked up four corners against Burnley last time out, as they came away 4-1 winners over the Clarets, and could have to force the issue quite a bit here against a stubborn Sunderland side.

Sunderland are conceding 4.63 corners per game at the Stadium of Light this term, and are particularly vulnerable to conceding these situations due to how defensively solid they can be, sometimes even packing the box to the point where there is no space at all for Forest to operate. 

Forest managed to register seven corners when these sides met earlier in the season, we only need them to get four here for this leg of our bet builder in an important game for Vitor Pereira’s side as they look to avoid the drop.

Brian Brobbey is such a physical player and almost impossible to knock off the ball, but he’ll have quite the battle on his hands here against Nikola Milenkovic, who isn’t weak either. Brobbey is a bit of a throwback and he’s been very important for Sunderland this season, his tussles may look chaotic, but they allow Sunderland to get up the pitch.

There aren’t many better forwards in the Premier League when it comes to holding up the ball and bringing others into play. Brobbey is winning 5.20 duels per 90 and 3.04 aerial duels won per 90 across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season - also contributing in the main metric he is measured against with six goals across 17 starts in the Premier League this season.

Brobbey is averaging 1.28 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season, so we’re looking for a rise in those numbers here, but Forest can certainly draw that from him with how this game is likely to play out. Sunderland thrive on the counter and won’t be obsessed with dominating the ball, meaning that we should see Brobbey in those usual tussles like he did in Sunderland’s most recent home game - having seven foul involvements, with three of these being fouls. 

Both Romero and Van De Ven were fouled twice in Sunderland’s most recent home game as they came away 1-0 winners over Tottenham. Brobbey committed three fouls on that occasion, so he’s not the only threat who can push on to foul the Forest centre backs here.

Murillo is expected to be absent with a knock here, ruling him out until May, positioning Milenkovic as the main target for Brobbey in this mini-matchup we’re going with as part of this longshot. Milenkovic is averaging 0.55 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, which isn’t terrible for a centre back, but we’d definitely be looking for a rise in those numbers here and that’s where Brobbey’s antics come into play.

I’d expect the Sunderland forward to engage in a really physical battle with Milenkovic, who also relishes these type of situations, and the pair to trade quite a few foul exchanges - leading to Milenkovic being hauled down on two occasions, hopefully from two fouls by Brian Brobbey.

Neco Williams has been shooting from everywhere recently, managing 2+ shots in each of his last four Premier League appearances. He’s found the target in two of these games, with Williams interestingly going on to have a second shot on target in both of those matches.

He’s registered four goal contributions across his last five appearances across all competitions, showing just how often Williams gets forward. He usually takes most of his efforts from just outside of the box, taking 41 shots in total across his 32 starts in the Premier League this season (1.32 per 90). 

I think Williams will continue to be a shot threat here, aided by the fact that Sunderland do tend to drop quite deep - opening up the perfect avenues for Williams to have a shot on target from the few shots he should take here. Williams had two shots against Burnley at home last time out, and benefits from playing as a left back meaning that Williams can cut in on his stronger foot and take aim at goal.