This exact angle is priced as low as 4.75 with other major bookmakers, we're getting a great price @ 7.2 on Betfair ✅

Cards 

Arsenal have picked up 21 yellow cards across their 13 Champions League matches this season (1.61 per game).

Arsenal committed 14 fouls when Atletico Madrid visited the Emirates in the league phase of the Champions League.

Atletico Madrid committed 10 fouls and were shown two yellow cards when they visited the Emirates in the league phase.

The referee for this game is Daniel Siebert who is averaging 4.63 cards per game in the Champions League this season. 

Corners 

Atletico Madrid racked up six corners in the first leg last week, they also managed four corners on their trip to the Emirates earlier in the season.

Arsenal are averaging 5.38 corners per game in the Champions League, a metric that jumps to 6.83 corners per game when playing at the Emirates.

The tie is locked at 1-1, both sides have a chance of reaching the final and this should lend itself to a healthy corner count overall.

GK Saves

David Raya was forced into making three saves in the first leg meeting between the sides last week. 

David Raya is averaging 2.58 saves per 90 in the Champions League, an increase on the 1.63 saves per 90 he’s averaging in the Premier League.

Jan Oblak was forced into making four saves when these sides met in the league phase. 

Jan Oblak has made 32 saves across his 11 starts in the Champions League the season (2.91 per 90).

Julian Alvarez was Atletico Madrid’s best player in the first leg meeting between the sides last week, scoring from the penalty spot to level the contest from six shots overall - two of which managed to find the target. 

There aren’t many players that can muster this short of shot volume against a side as good at limiting chances as Arsenal are, showing how crucial Alvarez is to Diego Simeone’s side. 

He’s already made a bit of history by scoring more goals than any other Atletico Madrid player in a single Champions League campaign (10), which is two goals more than he’s scored in LaLiga.

Alvarez has taken 45 shots across his 14 starts in the Champions League this season (3.45 per 90), seeing 22 of these efforts find the target (1.69 per 90). He had three shots when these sides met earlier in the campaign and was unlucky to not find the target with one of his efforts coming back off the crossbar.

Viktor Gyokeres gave his best performance in an Arsenal shirt so far over the weekend with a brace against Fulham as Mikel Arteta’s side took a step closer to the title with a 3-0 win over the Cottagers at home. Gyokeres was bright away from the goals too, expertly dealing with Joachim Andersen and winning a foul in the 64 minutes he played.

Gyokeres was hauled down once when the sides met last week and was fouled four times when the sides met in the league phase of the competition. He’s averaging 1.87 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this term, which is an average that holds pretty steady when looking at his games in the Premier League across a larger sample size (1.19 fouls won per 90).

Gyokeres is likely to face up against a centre-back duo of Pubill and Hancko, who struggled to contain Gyokeres last week. Both centre-backs committed at least one foul, and Hancko was shown a yellow card in the first leg draw between the sides.

Arsenal played some of the best football I've seen from them all season in their 3-0 win over Fulham last time out, crucially managing nine shots on target and drawing six saves from Bernd Leno in the Arsenal goal. Oblak was forced into just one save last week, but I can see him being busier here with Arsenal playing in front of their own crowd.

Oblak has been forced into making 32 saves across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (2.91 per 90). This is just a touch below the line we require here, and I’d expect Oblak to cover it if he can raise his save percentage numbers (60.4%) which is quite low for a keeper of his quality and experience. 

If Atletico Madrid are to find a way through this tie, Oblak will be central to their efforts. He’ll be tested by a frontline that should have quite a bit of confidence having easily pushed Fulham to one side over the weekend as Arsenal close on in a potentially historic season.

I think Atletico Madrid had to take some sort of lead into this game to have a chance of qualifying for the final, the draw from the first leg isn’t a disastrous result but it also doesn’t look like enough when scanning over Arsenal’s impressive record at home in the Champions League this season.

Arsenal have not lost a single game in the Champions League this campaign, in fact they’ve only trailed for 43 minutes in the competition all season which was in their 1-1 draw with Leverkusen in the early stages of the knockout rounds. Their control and defensive stability is perfect for the structure of the Champions League and are traits that Atletico Madrid don’t really have with Simeone trying to move away from a reliance on that approach this season.

Arsenal have won five of their six matches at home in the Champions League this season, with the exception of a 0-0 draw against Sporting last time out, and have only conceded five goals across the entirety of the competition. I think it’ll be hard for Atletico Madrid to find a way through Arteta’s stubborn side, with Arsenal well prepared to take advantage.

Ramis’ Everton v Manchester City Flashback Angle landed @ 4.33 ✅

He’s picked out another for the Champions League, here’s what happened when these sides met last week:

Martin Zubimendi 2+ fouls ✅
Julian Alvarez 2+ shots on target ✅
6+ Atletico Madrid corners ✅

You can back this flashback angle by clicking the link here 👇

Bukayo Saka was brilliant against Fulham over the weekend, registering a goal and an assist as he helped Arsenal to a 3-0 win over Marco Silva’s side. I saw quite a few people asking where this Bukayo Saka has been, but I think that’s a bit harsh on the winger who has been battling with injuries all campaign - and is limited by the instructions of Mikel Arteta.

Saka still finds a way to show his brilliance in this rigid system and beat his man on pretty much every occasion when taking him down that side. He was taken off at half time by Arteta in that game, with this encounter in mind, so I’d expect him to start and continue to build to full fitness against an Atletico Madrid side that have already lost 4-0 to Arsenal at the Emirates this season. 

Saka has registered four goal contributions across his six starts in the Champions League this season (2 goals, 2 assists). His underlying numbers are pretty strong too with the winger averaging 4.12 shots per 90 and 2.64 chances created per 90 in the Champions League this term.

Zubimendi becomes a lot more aggressive when playing in the Champions League, probably because Arsenal play with a bit more freedom in the competition as they don’t have to manage the relentless physical demands of the Premier League. This allows Rice and Odegaard/Eze to push up quite high, leaving Zubimendi as the only defensive presence in the midfield.

This makes Zubimendi particularly vulnerable to tactical fouls leading to cards in the Champions League. He’s committed 19 fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (1.80 per 90), collecting four yellow cards across these games. This is an increase on the 0.97 fouls committed per 90 that Zubimendi is averaging in the Premier League, confirming that he has extra defensive responsibilities in the Champions League.

Zubimendi committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card when Atletico Madrid visited Arsenal in the league phase of the Champions League, and could end up with a similar record again here given Arsenal’s willingness to send more midfield players forward in the Champions League.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored more goals than any other PSG player in the Champions League this season (10), adding two goals to his tally in the first leg as he helped PSG record a 5-4 win over Bayern Munich in Paris.

Interestingly, he’s quite generously priced out of the forward players for a goal contribution here. The market is understandably quite short in general after the nine goal thriller we had last week, but this is still at a decent price given Kvaratskhelia’s overall record in the Champions League this term - he’s registered the most goal contributions of any PSG player in a single season in the Champions League, eclipsing the record set by Dembele last season. 

He’s actually scored more goals in the Champions League than he has in Ligue 1 (7), showing just how much Kvaratskhelia loves this competition and I think he’ll be able to make a positive impact again.

I was pretty impressed with Upamecano and Tah in the first leg, which may be a strange thing to say with Bayern conceding five goals, but they had good moments in between the ridiculous levels of attacking quality we saw and most importantly - did not get roped into a battle with PSG’s frontline, who are all very strong when it comes to winning fouls.

I think this will change slightly here given the dynamic of the game. Bayern are chasing the tie and will naturally take risks, perhaps even more than they did last week as the home side here, leaving Upamecano and Tah at real risk of committing tactical fouls against the likes of Kvaratskhelia and Doue who will relish being afforded the extra space in this encounter. 

Upamecano has collected two yellow cards across his 11 starts in the Champions League the season and has picked up a further four cautions across his 20 starts in the Bundesliga this term. 

Martin Zubimendi committed two fouls last week as Arsenal earned a 1-1 draw in Madrid to make them favourites to qualify for the final when they welcome Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night.

Arsenal have already beaten Atletico Madrid at home in the Champions League this season, and were pretty convincing in this victory - coming away 4-0 winners. Zubimendi also committed a foul and was shown a yellow card in that game, making him a solid option to commit at least one foul in this encounter.

Zubimendi’s foul numbers increase in the Champions League, sitting at an average of 1.80 fouls committed per 90. His Premier League average sits just below 1.0 fouls committed per 90, which is still pretty convincing, but suggests that Zubimendi has extra defensive responsibilities when playing in the Champions League.

Koke was fouled once when the sides met in the first leg last week, with Arsenal committing 11 fouls in that game - adding to the 14 fouls they committed against Atletico Madrid in the meeting between the sides in the league phase of the competition.

Koke is averaging 0.74 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this season and has been fouled in three of his last five appearances in Europe for Atletico Madrid. He’s averaging a similar number of fouls won in LaLiga (0.77 per 90), so Koke is pretty consistent when it comes to drawing these challenges.

He’s also averaging over 83 touches per 90 in the Champions League which I think is a good indicator when looking to back players to win fouls. He should have plenty of opportunities to win a foul in this matchup against Martin Zubimendi.

We’re pitting Kvaratskhelia up against Stanisic, who admittedly doesn’t have standout foul numbers but I think he’ll struggle at times with the rotations and movement of the PSG front three.

Kvaratskhelia (2.42 fouls won per 90) and Doue (1.87 fouls won per 90) switch positions all the time, there isn’t a defined structure to the PSG frontline so Stanisic will find himself up against a variety of opponents who are all pretty good at winning fouls.

He’ll also have to contend with Nuno Mendes at times when the fullbacks meet in advanced areas. Mendes has won 20 fouls across his 15 starts in the Champions League this season (1.50 per 90), adding to the threat posed by Doue and Kvaratskhelia. 

Kvaratskhelia is such a difficult player to stop when he gets going, he didn’t quite manage to show this side of his game in the first leg with Bayern only committing four fouls - but I’d expect that to increase here and Kvaratskhelia to be a real threat operating down either wing.

Kvaratskhelia has won 26 fouls across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (2.42 per 90), and is also averaging 2.14 successful dribbles per 90 in the competition. He’s been fouled 4+ times in two of his last five Champions League appearances, showing how the winger can draw challenges with ease when he’s at his best.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored more goals than any other PSG player in the Champions League this season (10), adding two goals to his tally in the first leg as he helped PSG record a 5-4 win over Bayern Munich in Paris.

Interestingly, he’s the most generously priced of the forward players for a shot on target here. The market is understandably quite short in general after the nine goal thriller we had last week, but this is still at a decent price given Kvaratskhelia’s overall shot and shot on target record in the Champions League.

Kvaratskhelia has taken 44 shots across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (4.10 per 90), seeing 16 of these efforts find the target (1.49 per 90). He’s actually scored more goals in the Champions League than he has in Ligue 1 (7), showing just how much Kvaratskhelia loves this competition and I think he’ll be able to make a positive impact again.

Joao Neves committed a foul in the first leg meeting between the sides last week and generally is the most aggressive of the PSG midfield trio. He’s committed nine fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (0.87 per 90), and I’d expect him to get through a bit more work here now that PSG are the away side.

PSG employ a counter press which allows them to suffocate the opposition. This doesn’t work as effectively against a side like Bayern who are willing to match that intensity, but it does still lead to Neves and the front three of PSG being roped into challenges to stop the opposition finding a way through their structure. 

I’m particularly interested in Joao Neves’ battle with Jamal Musiala, who has won six fouls across his two starts in the Champions League this season (2.29 per 90). This is a small sample size, but winning fouls is a strong part of Musiala’s game. Bayern drew 14 fouls from PSG in the first leg meeting, committing just four fouls themselves in the game.

Bayern Munich were not that aggressive in the first leg meeting, but that attitude is likely to change here given that they are trailing in the tie and need to win to get through to the final for the first time under Vincent Kompany.

Bayern Munich have collected 22 yellow cards across their 13 Champions League matches this season (1.69 per 90) and have also picked up two red cards. They picked up four cards when travelling to the Parc Des Princes in the league phase of the competition, including a red card which was shown to Luis Diaz.

The referee for this game is Joao Pinherio who has handed out 28 yellow cards across his seven appointments in the Champions League this season (4.00 per game). Context is a real driver here, but Bayern’s card record is still pretty solid in the Champions League and the referee appointment should also help see them collect at least two cards here.

The first leg meeting between the side produced seven corners, we’re after a few more here in another selection where the context should be a key driver with there only being one goal between the sides from the first leg thriller. 

There were exactly 10 match corners when these sides met earlier on in the league phase of the Champions League, with PSG taking advantage of Bayern Munich dropping down to 10 men on that occasion and winning nine of these corners. 

Bayern are seeing 9.31 match corners per game in the Champions League this season, so we’re looking for a small increase in their average numbers which should be able to come with the context that surrounds this game with both European heavyweights being just one game away from a Champions League final, in which they’d likely be favourites against either Arsenal or Atletico Madrid.