Caicedo came on at half time when these sides met earlier in the season, committing one foul in the second period as Chelsea secured a 3-0 win over Forest. Chelsea committed 16 fouls in total on that occasion, so Caicedo should be in the limelight to cover the 2+ foul line here from the start of the game given his personal record this term.

Caicedo has committed 43 fouls across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (1.58 per 90), and is also averaging 12.2 defensive contributions per 90 - showing just how crucial Caicedo is to Chelsea’s defensive structure in the middle of the park. 

He’s committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances, and should have plenty of work to get through here against Morgan Gibbs-White (1.21 fouls won per 90) and his direct matchup in Elliot Anderson - who has been fouled 2+ times in each of his last four Premier League appearances. 

Elliot Anderson was pretty lucky to avoid being sent off in Forest’s 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Thursday evening as Vitor Pereira’s side drew first blood in the all-English Europa League semi-final between the sides. 

He lunged into a challenge on Watkins, catching his ankle, but avoided further punishment to the obvious annoyance of Unai Emery in the post match press conference.

Anderson was fouled three times in that game, which was partly due to the Villa players wanting a bit of revenge for their team mate, but it’s also a big part of Anderson’s game and one that can come to the fore here against an aggressive Chelsea midfield. 

Anderson has won 73 fouls across his 34 starts in the Premier League this season (2.16 per 90), winning a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances and winning multiple fouls in three of these games. 

Anderson was fouled four times when these sides met earlier on in the campaign, showing how the tenacity of Chelsea's midfield can lead to Anderson winning at least two fouls in this clash. 

Joao Pedro should have really scored in Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Leeds in the FA Cup semi-final last time out, striking the post with one of his two efforts on goal and being crowded out in another opening where he should have pulled the trigger a lot earlier than he did, allowing the Leeds defenders to get back and make the appropriate blocks.

Joao Pedro actually benefitted from Liam Rosenior’s reign when looking at his underlying numbers. He registered 14 goal contributions while Rosenior was at the club, and his shot output also improved with Pedro’s shot average now sitting at 2.47 shots per 90 - a metric that was as low as 1.5 shots per 90 earlier on in the campaign, and while he was at Brighton last season.

Of these 66 attempts, 27 have found the target (1.01 per 90). He’s found the target in three of his last five Premier League appearances, and should get chances here against a Forest side that allowed Chelsea to have six shots on target when the sides met at the City Ground earlier on in the campaign.

Morgan Gibbs-White had four shots when these sides met earlier in the season and was pretty unlucky not to see one of these efforts find the target given his usual shot accuracy percentage (37%). He’s been on a remarkable run of form of late in the Premier League, registering six goal contributions across his last five starts in the top flight.

Gibbs-White has found the target in each of his last five Premier League appearances, further showing the confidence that the Forest man is playing with at the moment. Across the season as a whole, Gibbs-White has had 75 shots across his 33 starts in the Premier League (2.32 per 90), seeing 28 of these efforts find the target (0.87 per 90). 

He’s also Forest’s top scorer in the Premier League this campaign having netted 13 goals across his 33 starts in the Premier League. This is an incredibly impressive record for a midfielder who had never previously managed more than seven goals in a single Premier League campaign.

Elliot Anderson was pretty lucky to avoid being sent off in Forest’s 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Thursday evening as Vitor Pereira’s side drew first blood in the all-English Europa League semi-final between the sides. 

He lunged into a challenge on Watkins, catching his ankle, but avoided further punishment to the obvious annoyance of Unai Emery in the post match press conference.

Anderson was fouled three times in that game, which was partly due to the Villa players wanting a bit of revenge for their team mate, but it’s also a big part of Anderson’s game and one that can come to the fore here against an aggressive Chelsea midfield. 

Anderson has won 73 fouls across his 34 starts in the Premier League this season (2.16 per 90), winning a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances and winning multiple fouls in three of these games. 

Anderson was fouled four times when these sides met earlier on in the campaign, showing how the tenacity of Chelsea's midfield can lead to Anderson winning at least two fouls in this clash.

I’ve been pretty impressed with Forest under Vitor Pereira so far, I didn’t quite understand the appointment at the time - which was probably valid when looking at the carousel of managers that Forest have had in the dugout this year - but he’s managed to get the players on side and I think they’ll be able to survive in the Premier League this season.

Forest have scored in each of their last eight matches across all competitions, notably avoiding defeat in all eight of these games. Only Bournemouth, Brighton and Manchester City can boast a better form record across this period than Forest - which makes Pereira’s achievement even more impressive so far as he has managed to galvanise a side that is battling at the bottom of the table.

I think Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Leeds last time out has papered over some of the obvious cracks at the moment in the Chelsea set up. The Blues only managed to keep a clean sheet in that game due to the brilliance of Rob Sanchez, who pretty much kept the clean sheet on his own with three brilliant saves and goals prevented tally of 0.99.

Chermiti has cut a frustrating figure for Rangers this season as he has struggled to live up to his big-money price tag for long periods before flashing into life in the biggest games of the season. The former Everton striker has 12 goals in the league this term, 4 of which came via a couple of braces against Celtic and 3 more of which were scored against Hearts when these sides last met.

No Rangers player has managed more shots on target than the 21-year-old in league play this term, and his price to score looks particularly healthy given he has 1.73 shots on target per 90. Indeed, this is the best figure in the whole of the Premiership by quite a distance.

His shooting stats have been particularly good in recent games as he has chalked up 3 shots on target in each of his last 3 outings. He has at least 2 shots on target – available at 2.75 – in 6 of his last 9 appearances. On top of this, he has 3 goals, surely guaranteeing him a start as Rangers’ in-form striker and making him a strong candidate to get on the scoresheet again.

Craig Halkett has long been a physical presence at the heart of Hearts’ defence, and Monday’s clash against Rangers looks tailor-made for another no-nonsense display. 

The centre-half has averaged 1.13 fouls per 90 in the Scottish Premiership this season, but his disciplinary profile becomes particularly pronounced in high-intensity fixtures. With 9 yellow cards to his name already, Halkett has shown a clear tendency to cross the line when pressed relentlessly by mobile forward lines.

Rangers attackers have won a combined 3.2 fouls per 90 across their last five away matches, meaning Halkett will be routinely dragged into one-on-one battles where timing is everything. 

Recent form only strengthens the angle. Halkett has been booked in two of his last five starts, with Monday’s fixture carrying significant implications for the title race, and with a referee who has shown 4.2 cards per game on average this term, backing Halkett to feature in the book feels like a good angle for this leg of our longshot.

Nicolas Raskin has often walked a disciplinary tightrope for Rangers this season, and his combative style could be central to the midfield battle once again. The Belgian has committed 2.09 fouls per 90 and picked up 7 yellow cards in the league, a total that highlights his aggressive approach .Notably, in the most recent head-to-head meeting, he committed 2+ fouls, underlining a trend that tends to emerge in the most physical fixtures. 

No Rangers midfielder has walked the line quite like the 25-year-old, and his foul lines look particularly healthy given the threat posed by the opposition. Hearts’ key midfield operator in Claudio Braga averages 1.67 fouls won per 90, suggesting Raskin will have ample opportunity to engage in the sort of scrappy duels that often result in a whistle. Indeed, across the Scottish Premiership this term, his willingness to contest loose balls has made him a regular feature in the referee's book. 

His recent run of form further bolsters the case. Raskin has committed at least 2 fouls in six of his last nine appearances. Given the intensity of the occasion and the specific matchup in the middle of the park, backing him to make his presence felt is a strong angle.

While you might expect a match with so much on the line to be a tight and tense affair, there is nothing about Rangers’ recent performances that suggests that this will be a low-scoring encounter.

Across the last 8 league matches that Danny Rohl’s side have played, there have been a staggering 36 goals. These fixtures have averaged 4.5 goals per game and only 1 has been under 2.5 goals.

The Ibrox side are a team far more comfortable when playing on the front foot, and they have already shown that they struggle to keep Hearts out. The Tynecastle side have scored exactly 2 goals in each of the 3 previous meetings between the clubs this season.

Hearts games do tend to be tighter, but each of their last 3 league outings have produced at least 3 goals.

The way this one is set up, it is likely to be more of a basketball game than a chess match.

At the time of writing, Rangers are favourites to win this match but there is nothing besides the history and stature of the club that justifies such a status going into this game.

Hearts, after all, have won 13 of 17 games at Tynecastle in the Premiership this season, drawing the other 4. They have conceded only 10 goals in Gorgie.

The Gers, meanwhile, have only won 8 of their 16 away league matches this season, while their recent form against top-6 rivals in the Premiership is pretty modest. They have won only 2 of their last 6 matches against the teams in the upper part of the table.

While Rangers impressed in winning the last meeting between the clubs 4-2 at home, the Edinburgh side had picked up victories in the previous 2 matches between the teams this term

Chermiti has cut a frustrating figure for Rangers this season as he has struggled to live up to his big-money price tag for long periods before flashing into life in the biggest games of the season. The former Everton striker has 12 goals in the league this term, 4 of which came via a couple of braces against Celtic and 3 more of which were scored against Hearts when these sides last met.

No Rangers player has managed more shots on target than the 21-year-old in league play this term, and his price looks particularly healthy given the he has 1.73 shots on target per 90. Indeed, this is the best figure in the whole of the Premiership by quite some distance.

His shooting stats have been particularly good in recent games as he has chalked up 3 shots on target in each of his last 3 outings. He has at least 2 shots on target – available at 2.75 – in 6 of his last 9 appearances. On top of this, he has 3 goals, surely guaranteeing him a start as Rangers’ in-form striker.

This is quite a low line, and Everton managed to cover it when the sides clashed at the Etihad earlier on in the campaign - registering exactly three corners. 

Set pieces have always been one of the main strengths of David Moyes’ sides and they have become the flavour of the Premier League this season with this campaign seeing more goals from set pieces than we have in each of the last 10 Premier League seasons. 

Everton are averaging 4.21 corners per game in the Premier League this season, a metric that jumps to 5.06 corners per game when looking at their games at the Hill Dickinson stadium. 

City are conceding 4.12 corners per game on the road in the Premier League, and there are bound to be moments where City look a little unsettled here given the pressure they are under following Arsenal’s comfortable win over Fulham on Saturday.

James Tarkowski and Erling Haaland have a bit of an ongoing rivalry which crops up whenever Everton play Manchester City. It’s not quite as heated as the animosity that exists between Gabriel and Haaland, which we saw flare up recently, but it’s still notable and I think the pair will be in each other’s faces again here.

Tarkowski committed a foul when these sides met earlier in the season, one of 26 fouls he’s committed across his 33 starts on the whole in the Premier League this season (0.79 per 90). This record has seen Tarkowski pick up six yellow cards, and he has committed a foul in three of his last five Premier League appearances.

Erling Haaland was fouled twice in City’s win over Everton earlier in the campaign, and has actually improved this part of his game this term with Haaland getting better at dropping in a bit deeper and linking up play for his teammates, as we can see from the seven goals he’s set up this term. Haaland is averaging 0.80 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season. 

Pep Guardiola has now found the perfect balance for his frontline having tinkered with it all season. Doku, Cherki, Semenyo and Haaland form a menacing front four that have all the attributes to cause opposition sides problems in a number of ways.

Semenyo and Haaland are usually the ones that end up finishing the moves that City put together, while Cherki and Doku focus on creating chances and space for those two. Semenyo has been one of the few wingers in the Premier League that can boast a decent goal tally this term, having netted 15 goals in the Premier League which is a tally only bettered by Igor Thiago and Erling Haaland himself.

He’s achieved this tally from 76 shots (2.42 per 90), seeing 38 of these efforts find the target (1.21 per 90). Semenyo has had a shot on target in two of his last five Premier League matches, which may not sound convincing - but his record across the season as a whole is much stronger.

Semenyo should get chances to find the target here against an Everton side who can be quite stubborn and conceded seven shots on target when the sides met earlier in the campaign.

Pep Guardiola’s record at the end of a season in the Premier League is a joke, and can’t be ignored even with Manchester City facing a much tougher test than Arsenal did over the weekend. Liverpool are probably the only side to actually know how it feels being in this situation, they constantly thought they had done enough but City kept coming back at them, even in the most unlikely circumstances.

Manchester City have won four of the last five head to head meetings between these sides, winning the last two to nil. They’re enjoying their best form of the season so far having won each of their last six matches, including beating the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal as well as progressing to the FA Cup final with victory over Southampton at Wembley last time out.

They face an Everton side that have only won one of their last five Premier League matches, losing each of their last two against Liverpool and West Ham. City have avoided defeat in 13 of their 17 away games this season, winning nine of these matches, and have notably scored the second most goals of any side away from home in the Premier League this season (28).