I was surprised to see this pick come up in the goals algo as it doesn’t look the most appealing when just looking at the sides, but some deeper digging has revealed a possible value play for some goals in this clash at the bottom of Serie A.

Genoa have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including their last three matches. They’ve avoided defeat across these three recent fixtures with their last two results being a 3-3 draw against Fiorentina and a 2-2 draw against Cagliari. Genoa registered an xG of 1.0 or higher in both matches, despite being reduced to 10 men against Cagliari.

Hellas Verona have also seen high goal counts in recent matches with 3+ goals landing in four of their last five matches across all competitions. The exception in this run was a 0-0 draw against Lecce, who sit just outside the relegation zone. Neither of these sides are solid at the back, with Genoa having just two clean sheets this term to Hellas Verona’s three.

The main reason as to why goals are so appealing here is that a draw suits neither side. A draw would hand the initiative to sides like Fiorentina and Lecce who sit around this pair at the bottom of the table. Both sides sit in the relegation zone with only one win between them in Serie A. Games like this can become quite dull, but the recent flurry of goals that both sides have seen in recent matches, as well as the context surrounding their league positions - makes 3+ goals a solid angle in this six pointer.

Bayern have made a record-breaking start to the season and are on track to smash the Bundesliga records for points and goals scored. Bayern have won by a margin of 3+ goals in eight of their 11 league matches to date, including against the likes of RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Bayer Leverkusen.

They tore Freiburg to shreds last time out in a merciless 6-2 thrashing, and I’d be very surprised if they don’t manage a similar result on Saturday. The visitors have lost each of their last eight, and have scored just two goals over that period. Across their most recent five, Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach both brought this selection home against St. Pauli, and Bayern are simply a class above.

Despite their dismal run of form, St. Pauli have been remarkably consistent in the corners market; in fact, you’ll no doubt be shocked to learn that their average of 5.55 per match actually ranks above that of Bayern. They’ve won at least three corners in 10 of their 11 Bundesliga matches this season, only falling short against Werder Bremen towards the start of October.

Perhaps even more surprising is Bayern’s record, which has seen them concede over 2.5 corners in 91% of their league outings - the second most of any side, trailing only Augsburg. They’ve conceded them at a rate of 4.45 per 90, with the venue making little to no difference in that respect.

Only goal difference separates these sides in the League One table, with both having an identical record in the division up until this point. Huddersfield have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, winning three of these games with the defeats coming against Luton and Bolton - both away matches.

Wimbledon have seen 3+ goals in each of their last three matches coming into this contest, and have notably seen 25 goals across their eight away matches this term (3.1 per game). They have a black and white record on the road with four wins and four defeats, and their high goal tallies suggest that we should be in for another entertaining encounter here.

Huddersfield have won five of their eight home matches in League One this season, with these games producing 20 goals (2.5 per game). Wimbledon's promising goal record on the road should see this rise further here, as these sides battle for an early spot in the playoffs.

Middlesbrough have drafted in Kim Hellberg to lead the squad forward after Rob Edwards accepted a role as Wolves’ head coach, despite the club being in an excellent position in the Championship.

Hellberg’s first game in charge of the club was an entertaining affair which saw Middlesbrough lose 4-2 to Coventry. There were some positive signs from Boro in the final third with an xG of 1.14 from 11 shots, which is a decent tally considering that they were playing the league leaders.

Boro have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches in the Championship, with the exception of a 3-0 defeat on the road against Watford. They’ve only lost one of their home games this season, with these eight matches producing 19 goals (2.3 per game).

Derby have one of the strongest away records in the Championship this term, offering real promise when it comes to backing the away side to find the back of the net. They’ve scored 12 goals across their eight away matches (1.5 per game), with these games seeing 22 goals in total (2.75 per game).

I’ve been a huge ANZADAM fan, since watching him land a Compiegne hurdle race by seven lengths. The exciting son of Authorized is 4-4 over hurdles and has won both starts for Willie Mullins in effortless fashion – both in Grade 3 company.

He certainly has superstar potential, and is definitely one to seriously consider for the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival if he runs well here. At the current prices, he is the outsider of the main three in the race, which offers good value. We know that if Constitution Hill bounces back to his brilliant best, then he’ll be extremely hard to beat; however, I cannot back him with any confidence after his previous three runs.

The New Lion is another hugely improving type, and is the one to beat for me, but I’m siding with Anzadam, who could prove to be a top-notch two-miler.

KATATE DORI may have been produced perfectly to go close, in this prestigious handicap chase. The seven-year-old was given a pipe opener, in a hurdle race at Aintree, clearly in preparation for this chasing test.

I’m forgiving him for his pulled-up run at the Cheltenham festival last season, where he was at the rear early and never recovered. His previous chase form figures of 1121 were excellent, and that included an impressive big-race success at Kempton. He is still an unexposed type over fences and over this distance.

We were a little unfortunate last week, with KONFUSION, who unseated his rider when travelling well at Haydock (was favourite for the race). He looks the type to keep progressive over fences, as an unexposed runner, who has more to give, if able to dictate from the front. This appears a winnable race and I’m surprised he isn’t a little shorter in the betting.

I’m taking a chance on HE’S AN ANGEL, who returns after a lengthy absence. The five-year-old Harry Angel gelding is extremely well handicapped an old form – some 12lb below his previous winning mark – and he is also a course-and-distance winner, who deserves respect, especially if strong in the betting market. His new trainer also arrives in excellent form, which is a positive sign.

Colts wide receiver Alex Pierce has managed 25+ receiving yards in each of his last five games, with an average of 78.40 receiving yards per game over this period. With this, he accounts for 29% of his teams total receiving yards.

His recent form figures of 98, 69, 115, 84 and 26 receiving yards show he has comfortably cleared this bet in all outings bar his last match, where he managed to make 26 yards (still beating this line).

Texans' wide receiver Jayden Higgins has managed four or more receptions in four of his last five matches, boasting an average of 3.60 receptions per match across this period.

This average is brought down by the Broncos game where he only managed one reception, however, against a Colts side who are 2nd in the division for receptions allowed, we can imagine his receptions would be on the higher side for this match.

His form figures read 4, 1, 5, 4 and 4 receptions over the past five games.

The Jaguars are just one win back from the Colts in the AFC South and looking for their third win on the bounce. If they hadn’t somehow given up 26 points in the fourth quarter against the Texans, this would be potentially their fifth win in a row. 

With the Titans ranking bottom three in offensive DVOA and 29th of 32 teams in defensive DVOA, both well below the Jaguars, it should be an easy win for Liam Coen’s team. Only three teams are giving up more than the 27.5 points Tennessee are allowing per game.

It’s been a resurgent year for Travis Etienne, who was beyond awful last year. He beat off competition for his spot from Tank Bigsby, who was traded and he’s still leading his backfield despite rookie Bhayshul Tuten’s emergence. Since the bye, we’ve seen the team lean even more heavily on Etienne.

In the four games since he’s had 72 carries, an average of 18 per game, and been heavily involved in the passing game. That’s resulted in four touchdowns, and with the Titans allowing 15 touchdowns to opposition running backs, he’s the man most likely to score for the Jags on Sunday.

It can be very frustrating watching Trevor Lawrence play. He was drafted into a terrible situation with the Jags under Urban Meyer, but he’s still a long way from delivering on the promise that saw many analysts suggest he’d be the best quarterback of his generation. Every game he will do something mind-blowingly stupid, but then just when you’re out on him, he’ll pull off a throw that not many other players alive could make.

One thing has been consistent though, he’s been throwing touchdowns, even if we’ve seen far too many interceptions. He’s thrown at least one touchdown pass in nine of 11 games this season and in seven of his past eight games. There are signs that perhaps he’s starting to get things together under the stewardship of Liam Coen, so I’m backing him to throw another TD pass on Sunday.