Manchester United have a 100% win record at home under Michael Carrick, and I think they’ll extend that here. Manchester United have beaten Manchester City, Fulham, Tottenham and Crystal Palace at home so far under Carrick’s guidance and have looked pretty convincing in all of those victories.

Aston Villa have really struggled since the turn of the year, they built real momentum in the busy winter period but Villa consistently outperforming their underlying numbers has now caught up with them. Unai Emery’s side have scored fewer goals than any other Premier League team since the turn of the year (9) and have won just one of their last five matches across all competitions, losing heavily to Newcastle and Chelsea in this run.

Manchester United’s main advantage in the race for a Champions League finish is that they aren’t in any European competition. This means that they’ll also have a fitness advantage over Aston Villa here, given that Unai Emery’s side travelled to take on Lille in the Europa League during the week. I think United have more firepower than Villa, which can see them to victory when combined with the natural fitness advantage they’ll have over Unai Emery’s side.

The initial league meeting between the sides produced five goals as Sevilla ran out surprise 4-1 winners over Barcelona. Each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides has seen 3+ goals, and the way Barcelona set up always lends itself to an exciting encounter.

Barcelona could easily cover this line on their own, they’ve netted 41 goals across their 13 home games this season (3.15 per game) - winning all 13 of these matches. However, Sevilla can definitely contribute to the goal count here given how they dismantled Barcelona in the most recent head to head with Sevilla managing to generate an xG of 2.80 from just 13 shots - suggesting that they will have a formula to try and expose Barcelona’s high defensive line.

Tottenham really are struggling at the moment and come into this clash having lost each of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently losing 5-2 to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.

It doesn’t look like Tottenham will get anymore joy here given that they haven’t won in the Premier League at Anfield since 2011. Igor Tudor’s side have sunk dangerously low in the Premier League table, to the point where relegation from the top flight is a very real possibility.

Liverpool haven’t been flying themselves this season, but have managed to maintain a decent record at Anfield in the Premier League. Arne Slot’s side have lost three of their 14 matches at home this season, winning eight of these games and netting 26 goals in the process.

There’s real potential for Tottenham to crumble here, it looks like the players have already checked out under Igor Tudor and this game is likely to be his final one in charge if Liverpool can really pile more misery onto Tottenham.

This is usually an entertaining encounter, each of the last eight head to head clashes between the sides have seen BTTS - with seven of these games seeing 3+ goals.

The initial league meeting between the sides this season saw Leipzig run out 3-1 winners over Stuttgart in a game that saw a combined xG of 3.58 from 30 match shots in total. 

The sides are evenly matched in a lot of areas, and that is reflected in the current league standings with the sides level on points ahead of this game and locked in a battle for a Champions League spot next season.

It’s worth noting Stuttgart’s impressive home record in the Bundesliga this season. They’ve only lost one of their 12 home matches in the German top flight this term, winning nine of these games and scoring 21 goals in the process.

ONLY BY NIGHT is among the place protagonists, for trainer Gavin Cromwell. She has made a promising start to chasing, with a record of four wins from seven runs.

Her Grade Three success on penultimate outing was a clear personal best, and she brings festival form to the table, having finished an outstanding second in last year’s G1 Arkle Novices’ Chase. The rise in journey can suit here, as a three-mile point winner, and I’m hopeful of a positive performance.

Welsh and Irish Grand National winner – HAITI COULEURS – has developed into a genuine Graded performer, having surged to victory in a Grade Three and Grade Two this term.

He stays forever and any rain will certainly be to his advantage, as his proven stamina is definitely his most prized asset. In what may develop into a real battle, I would much rather have my wager on my selection to determinedly fend off his rivals – especially if able to get to the front early.

CON’S ROC has interested me for a while, after his narrow third in a Down Royal Hunters’ Chase at Christmas.

The lightly-raced runner was keeping on strongly that day, behind the reopposing Its On The Line and Willitgoahead (who I also like for the race). He has scope for improvement, especially raised in trip at this testing circuit. First-time cheekpieces could also spark progress.

I give WENDROCK a serious chance, despite a pulled-up effort last time. You can easily strike a line through that run, given it came over three miles on testing ground. The drop to a suitable distance here, coupled with a sounder surface can see an upturn in form, with this race an obvious target.

His trainer has an outstanding record in this race, too. Carl Millar was aboard, when the pair ran on powerfully over this trip, earlier this term, and they scope to go close under optimum conditions. I expect him to be well supported in the market. 

Welsh and Irish Grand National winner – HAITI COULEURS – has developed into a genuine Graded performer, having surged to victory in a Grade Three and Grade Two this term.

He stays forever and any rain will certainly be to his advantage, as his proven stamina is definitely his most prized asset. In what may develop into a real battle, I would much rather have my wager on my selection to determinedly fend off his rivals – especially if able to get to the front early.

I give WENDROCK a serious chance, despite a pulled-up effort last time.

You can easily strike a line through that run, given it came over three miles on testing ground. The drop to a suitable distance here, coupled with a sounder surface, can see an upturn in form, with this race an obvious target.

His trainer has an outstanding record in this race, too. Carl Millar was aboard when the pair ran on powerfully over this trip, earlier this term, and they scope to go close under optimum conditions. I expect him to be well supported in the market.

Wrexham continue to be the entertainers at home. The FA Cup tie against Chelsea was the latest example of the team emulating their ownership in being able to put on a show. However, the situation is getting real for Wrexham now with that disappointing home defeat to Hull at the weekend, and they need to put it right here.

Certainly, scoring goals at home has not been the issue. They have averaged 1.84 goals per match, and created 1.6xG. Indeed, there has been only one home game this season which they have failed to score at the Racecourse Ground, and even that match at home to Millwall saw them generate over 1.5xG.

This leads us to the other side of the equation, they have also conceded a lot. They average 1.68 goals conceded per game at home, which is actually, and unusually, substantially higher than their concession rate away from home, which is only 1.06. As a result there are a lot of Wrexham home matches that end BTTS-Yes, 10 of their last 14 have done so in all competitions, including five of their last six. Swansea have scored in six of their eight away games under Vitor Matos, with four of them becoming BTTS-Yes.

This is a Welsh derby, and even if it is nowhere near as tense as a Swansea v Cardiff, or even a Wrexham v Chester affair, there are still likely to be some pride and tension in there, especially when the play-offs are at stake as well.

Swansea collected two cards in the return fixture, that is despite conceding only eight fouls. More compelling evidence is that Vitor Matos’ team have picked up at least two cautions in each of their last seven matches in all competitions. That has now brought their season average to two yellow cards per match exactly.

We have already touched upon the derby and play-off element of this match, and the fact that this is a match played under lights on the Friday night somehow makes this feel quite box-office. Referee Tom Neild is not a hindrance to this bet either, he averages 3.72 yellow cards in the Championship this season.

It is a surprise to me that the price on Callum Doyle to commit a foul is still easily backable as part of a multi. The left sider has found his home on the left of the three central defenders for Wrexham, and has started their last 20 matches in row, playing the full 90 minutes on every occasion as well, so we should get a really good run for our money.

The compelling evidence here is that Doyle has committed at least one foul in 16 of those 20 starts, and in all of his last seven in all competitions, including committing three offences last time out. Swansea play with wide forwards, so Doyle will likely be challenged in his channel, potentially by tricky wingers Ronald or Eom. Ronald averages over 2.5 fouls against him per 90, with Eom not far behind on 1.81 fouls against per 90.

Galbraith averages 0.9 fouls per 90 minutes this season, which makes his price in this particular match already quite enticing. However, the fact that he is likely to be back playing in his preferred central midfield role makes this price much better value. He has started in central midfield in the last two matches and has committed a foul in each of those.

Indeed, if we count up the last 10 starts that Galbraith has played in midfield rather than right-back, he has fouled in eight of those 10 matches, with 11 fouls in total. It is highly likely to be a good physical battle in midfield, with Galbraith up against potentially Zak Vyner, and/or Lewis O’Brien, none of whom shirk away from tackles.

Bayern absolutely battered Atalanta in the first leg of their last 16 tie in the Champions League during the week, netting six goals - all while Harry Kane was on the bench. That commanding victory allows Vincent Kompany to really focus in on this clash, as Bayern look to fully cement their position as the league leaders in the Bundesliga.

Bayern could easily cover this line on their own, they’ve netted 92 goals across their 25 matches in the Bundesliga this season (3.68 per game), with 40 of these goals coming across their 12 away matches (3.33 per game). Bayern covered this goal line on their own when the sides last met, running out 3-0 winners - but I do think Leverkusen can contribute to the goal tally this time around.

Leverkusen did really well to hold Arsenal to a 1-1 draw in their Champions League tie against the Premier League leaders during the week. They would have won that game too if it wasn’t for Arsenal getting a controversial last minute penalty, so they should be relatively confident ahead of this clash. 

They also have plenty to fight for with Leverkusen being three points away from the Champions League spots at the moment. Leverkusen have netted 25 goals across their 12 home games in the Bundesliga this term (2.08 per game), and welcome a Bayern side that have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions.

This game is set up perfectly for goals at both ends with neither side looking particularly convincing at the back across recent weeks. Both sides saw BTTS in their Champions League clashes during the week as Newcastle drew 1-1 with Barcelona, while Chelsea collapsed to a 5-2 defeat at the hands of PSG.

Both sides have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, with Chelsea only managing to keep three clean sheets across their 16 matches under Rosenior so far. Rosenior’s tenure so far has similarities to Pochettino’s time at the club, I think he’s popular with the players - but his style is chaotic and a bit naive, as PSG exposed during the week.

Newcastle have seen BTTS in each of their last 13 matches across all competitions, stretching back to a 2-0 defeat against Aston Villa back at the end of January. Eddie Howe’s side are missing Bruno Guimaraes quite a lot at the moment, but still have the individual quality to cause opposition sides problems.

The most recent league meeting between these sides produced four goals as Chelsea came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw. That clash produced a combined xG of 3.53, with both sides registering a tally in excess of 1.0.

The next step on Arsenal’s title path sees Mikel Arteta’s side welcome Everton to the Emirates, where Arsenal have won 11 of their 14 matches in the Premier League. They’ve scored 33 goals across these games (2.35 per game), and have conceded fewer goals than any other side in the division at home (9).

Arsenal come into this clash unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions, winning eight of these games. This clash comes at an important time for Mikel Arteta’s side, if Arsenal were to lose this game - then they won’t have another Premier League match until the 11th April.

I have been impressed by Everton at times this season, but do think they will struggle to find a way past this Arsenal backline given that they’ve only scored 16 goals across their 14 away matches this term. David Moyes’ side fell to a 1-0 loss to Arsenal when the sides met earlier in the season, with Arsenal registering an xG of 2.00 to Everton’s 0.20. 

I think Arsenal find a way to get over the line here, it hasn’t always been smooth for Mikel Arteta’s men this season but a victory here, ahead of Manchester City’s trip to West Ham last in the day, could put them in a really commanding position in this title race.

Nijmegen have become a bit of a favourite in our Saturday and Sunday accumulators, and they are yet to really let us down when backing their matches for goals. Nijmegen have been the most entertaining sides to follow across Europe this season, their matches regularly see action at both ends due to their intense, borderline insane approach to matches at times.

Nijmegen have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of a 3-0 win over Volendam last time out - who struggle for attacking quality. They managed to run out 3-2 winners in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, which was in the KNVB Cup but the recent league meetings between the sides also offer promise with each of the last two clashes seeing BTTS and a combined tally of 14 goals.

PSV have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 59 goals across their 13 home matches in the Eredivisie this term (4.53 per game). Keeping clean sheets isn’t a massive part of PSV’s game, despite them leading the way in the Eredivisie - with four sides managing to keep more shutouts than the league leaders so far this term (6).