Enzo Le Fee is a doubt for this game, which is a massive blow for Sunderland, which should mean that we see Habib Diarra continue in his slightly more advanced role behind Xhaka and Sadiki.

I was very impressed with this trio in the early stages of the season, they had a really good balance but an injury to Diarra disrupted their development. Diarra is fit again now and can be a shot threat for Sunderland, operating in the role that Le Fee was so effective in for the Black Cats.

Diarra has taken 16 shots across his 11 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.42 shots per 90. He’s scored two goals from this tally, and has the required physicality and stamina to engage in a battle with Newcastle’s intense midfield set up.

Anthony Gordon had one chance fall his way at the Camp Nou during the week, and should have done a bit better with his effort as it deflected wide of the goal. Gordon played up front in that game, and could start in that forward role again here with Newcastle still not getting much out of Woltemade and Wissa as their main two strikers.

Gordon has taken 44 shots across his 22 starts in the Premier League this season (2.39 per 90), seeing 19 of these efforts find the target (1.03 per 90). This has resulted in Gordon scoring five goals in the Premier League, and 16 goals across all competitions, with Gordon being particularly effective in the Champions League.

Gordon’s shot output in the Champions League is just as compelling for this angle, with Gordon taking 26 shots across his nine starts (3.04 per 90), seeing 14 of these efforts find the target (1.64 per 90) - resulting in Gordon having a haul of 10 goals in the Champions League from an xG of 8.53.

It may seem a bit odd to back a side to win after they’ve just lost 7-2 in a midweek game, but I do buy into the belief that derbies exist outside of form lines - and Newcastle have plenty to atone for after losing the initial league meeting in a pretty limp fashion.

Home advantage should be massive for Newcastle here, not only in the context of the derby but also because Sunderland have struggled on the road all season. Regis Le Bris’ side have only managed to win three of their 15 away matches in the Premier League this term, notably only scoring eight goals across these games - only Wolves (7) have scored fewer goals on the road than Sunderland this season.

Newcastle have been far from their best this season but have still managed to win eight of their 15 games at St James’ Park, and will want to bounce back following their bruising defeat in the Champions League and poor display against Sunderland in the initial meeting between the sides, which attracted quite a bit of criticism.

Robin Roefs has been one of the signings of the season in the Premier League this term, but will be unavailable for Sunderland here, which means that Melker Ellborg should step into the frame - and he’s likely to be just as busy as Roefs was in the Sunderland goal.

Ellborg has been forced into making seven saves across his two Premier League appearances since Roefs picked up his injury (3.50 saves per 90). He was tested three times by Brighton last time out, and four times by Leeds - suggesting that Sunderland's backline is not going to offer Ellborg much protection in this clash. 

Newcastle were really poor in the initial league meeting between the sides, but still managed to draw two saves from Roefs. Sunderland have been really organised at the back at times this season, but Newcastle can still force Ellborg into saves with efforts from distance if Sunderland do effectively manage to limit the space in and around their box.

Roefs has been forced into making 85 saves across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (3.04 per 90), suggesting that the Sunderland goalkeeper is regularly tested to this degree by opposition sides.

I had my eye on Hume last time these two played, but unfortunately he didn’t start. As it stands, he’s received the most cards (7) for Sunderland and is also their most fouled player.

This is likely due to how often he pushes up the pitch to get shots off, which can leave him exposed and force him into committing a tactical foul.

Sadiki has received the second-most cards (6) for Sunderland and will be one of the key players in this midfield battle.

It’s a shame Newcastle may not have their usual midfield trio, but players like Gordon (wins 2.03 fouls per 90), Ramsey (1.00 per 90), and Willock (1.07 per 90) will still be tough to defend against.

Malick Thiaw committed three fouls and was shown a yellow card when these sides met at the Stadium of Light earlier in the season.

Thiaw has dealt with the majority of forwards he's faced this season pretty well - but struggled against Brobbey who held up the ball really well in Sunderland's 1-0 win over Newcastle earlier in the season, drawing four fouls in total from Eddie Howe's side.

Thiaw and Brobbey should reassume their battle from the most recent meeting here, with Brobbey likely to be isolated against Thaiw on a few occasions when Sunderland send the ball up to him to try and push up the pitch a little.

Brian Brobbey is is quite a handful when leading the line for Sunderland, and I think he'll get locked into a real battle up against Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman.

Brobbey has committed 16 fouls across his 14 Premier League starts this season (1.13 per 90), picking up three yellow cards in the process. One of these cautions was picked up in the most recent league meeting between these sides - where Brobbey was booked despite not committing a foul, showing how games like this often gives players quite a few chances to test the patience of the referee even if they don't rack up a high foul count.

Barcelona's home record is almost unbelievable, they’ve won all 14 of their games in front of their own supporters this season - netting 46 goals in the process (3.28 per game).

Barcelona are often labelled to be quite vulnerable at the back, but that hasn’t been the case when Hansi Flick’s side have played at home this season with Barcelona conceding just eight goals across their 14 home games in LaLiga this season.

This is a massive day in the LaLiga title race, Barcelona have the opportunity to move seven points clear of Real Madrid with victory here while Arbeloa’s side have a very awkward task against their city rivals later on in the day.

Rayo Vallecano have not fared too well on the road this season, winning just three of their 14 matches when away from their supporters. I don’t think they’ll have enough firepower to cope with Barcelona here, having only scored 12 goals across their 14 away games with only three sides in LaLiga scoring fewer goals than Rayo Vallecano on the road this season

This is a massive game between two sides battling at the foot of the table in the Premier League. Tottenham wouldn’t have expected to be in a relegation six pointer clash at this stage of the season at the start of the campaign, but there is real risk of the North London side facing the drop if they don’t pick up a positive result here.

Tottenham and Nottingham Forest are both currently outside of the relegation zone, with goal difference keeping Forest above the red line while Tottenham have just the one point buffer - making this game really pivotal in the overall picture of the relegation battle. Both sides played in Europe during the week, so their fitness levels should be pretty similar, with both seeing two or more goals in their European games as well.

Tottenham have seen two or more goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have lost four of the six games that Tudor has taken charge of so far. Forest managed to come away 3-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, though I can see a more even encounter here that produces goals at both ends with each side being desperate to pick up all three points in this must win game.

PSV have been dominant again in the Eredivisie this season, boasting a 16 point lead at the top of the division after 27 games. They will definitely secure the title from this position, and don’t tend to be too complacent when we’ve seen them have commanding leads in the Eredivisie over the last few campaigns. 

PSV’s away record is particularly convincing when looking to back them for a win on the road here. Peter Bosz’s side have won 12 of their 13 away games in the Dutch top flight - netting 34 goals in the process. PSV have picked up 13 more points than any other side on the road in the Eredivisie this season, so their displays when away from home are comfortably the best in the division.

They take on a Telstar side who are three points from safety at the bottom of the Eredivisie, but do have a game in hand on the teams around them. Telstar have the worst home record in the Eredivisie this season, winning just two of their 13 games in front of their own fans. They have offered an attacking threat in these games with 21 goals, but PSV’s incredible record on the road should see the away side pick up all three points here.

This tends to be quite an entertaining game with 12 of the last 13 head to head meetings between these rivals seeing BTTS. The most common scoreline across this sample of games has been 1-1, though that wouldn’t help Real Madrid too much in their pursuit of Barcelona for the LaLiga title.

The turbulence during the handover between Alonso and Arbeloa has seen Real Madrid fall four points behind Barcelona in the LaLiga title race. They have picked up some form since those early shaky displays with Arbeloa’s side winning each of their last four matches across all competitions - seeing BTTS in all four of these games.

Atletico Madrid have generally been a bit more open this season in what looks to be Simeone’s final season at the club. They can close the gap to Real Madrid to just six points with victory here, and should be encouraged by how they dismantled Real Madrid in the initial league meeting between the sides which was won 5-2 by Real Madrid.

Semenyo has been brilliant for Manchester City since making the move across from Bournemouth in January, with the 26-year-old netting seven goals across his 16 appearances since joining the club.

Semenyo has taken 68 shots across his 29 starts in the Premier League this season (2.36 per 90), seeing 36 of these attempts find the target (1.25 per 90). His shot on target record is incredibly consistent, and he can cause Arsenal issues again here on the biggest stage.

Only Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Semenyo in the Premier League this season, suggesting that he is one of the best goalscorers in the country at the moment and can be backed to have a single shot on target here at a generous price given his overall record this term.

Gabriel has been dropping to the floor at the slightest bit of contact over recent weeks, and now reignites his long term feud with Erling Haaland.

Gabriel has won 27 fouls across his 24 Premier League appearances this term (1.12 per 90), which is a really consistent record for a centre back. I always like backing players to win fouls when I know they will have a lot of the ball, Gabriel is averaging nearly 73 touches to the ball per 90 in the Premier League - so there should be plenty of candidates in City blue to haul him down.

Gabriel was fouled once when these sides met earlier in the season, with Haaland notably committing three fouls in that game - well above his average of 0.71 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League. This tells us that Saliba and Gabriel know how to get under Haaland’s skin, and could wind him up further by falling to the ground easily under his challenges.

Semenyo has been one of the best players in the Premier League this season, netting 15 goals across his 29 starts - only Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Semenyo in the Premier League this term.

As well as offering a real threat from open play, Semenyo can be quite reckless with his challenges. He’s picked up six yellow cards in the Premier League this season, though is yet to pick up his first caution for Man City in the top flight.

City are more aggressive when out of possession than they were last season, collecting 56 yellow cards to date - just one fewer than they managed across the entirety of last campaign, despite eight games of the season remaining. Semenyo has been operating centrally of late, setting up an interesting battle against Eberechi Eze.

Eze has won 30 fouls across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season (1.80 per 90) and can offer a threat to Semenyo when gliding through those central areas.

Eberechi Eze has been inconsistent at times for Arsenal this season, but usually delivers in these high profile games. He scored a wonderful goal against Leverkusen during the week to get Arsenal on their way to a 2-0 victory, managing three shots in the game overall.

Eze tends to be pretty speculative with his efforts, he’s taken 49 shots across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season (2.93 per 90), seeing 16 of these efforts find the target (0.96 per 90). 

Furthermore, Eze enjoys playing at Wembley. He scored in both the semi-final and the final of the FA Cup last season as Crystal Palace secured the trophy against Man City. He had 2+ shots in both of these games, once again showing how Eze tends to save his best performances for big matches.

Bernardo is a player I always gravitate towards for fouls in big games. He’s a player that Pep trusts unconditionally, and he’s an absolute terrier in games like this. Yes, he was ejected in midweek for his handball on the line against Real Madrid, but that won’t affect his inclusion here. He’s played the fifth highest amount of minutes for City this season in all comps.

Across all competitions, he’s averaged 1.38 fouls per 90. This is below the line we’re after, but he does tend to step things up in this department against tougher opposition. In 2025/26, he’s committed two or more fouls on 13 occasions, and it’s no coincidence which games they’ve come in.

He made two against United, Liverpool and Spurs. He made three and two in two games against Newcastle and he committed a whopping five against Chelsea. He’s also been carded 13 times in all competitions, by far the most of any City player. In fact, he’s having the worst disciplinary season of his entire career.

This is a selection I love as a bet, but hate the principle of. Gabriel has started to become somewhat notorious for how easy he hits the deck recently. We’ve all seen so many clips of him ‘drawing’ fouls from forwards recently, where he waits and waits then hurls himself to the floor, and it’s working.

He’s been fouled eight times in his last four games, and also drew three in the recent North London Derby win. He also drew a foul in the Premier League meeting on matchday five. He’s averaged 1.12 fouls drawn per 90.

He is often tasked with dealing specifically with Erling Haaland in these games, with the two having some very intense matchups previously. Haaland isn’t a serial fouler but 0.71 per 90 is solid in favour of this bet. Semenyo has often moved into central areas of late, and operated as a second striker. He has averaged 1.36 fouls per 90 too.

BTTS

Each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides have seen BTTS, with two of those games ending in draws and one ending in a 5-1 win for Arsenal.

Manchester City have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, only failing to score at the Bernabeu across these games. 

Arsenal do have the best defence in the country, and possibly Europe, but Manchester City can offer a threat to this backline as the second top scorers in the Premier League this season (60), only behind Arsenal (61).

Each Team 3+ Corners 

Arsenal racked up 11 corners when these sides met earlier in the season, with that number exaggerated due to Arsenal being the home side. They should still have enough to cover this corner line at Wembley seeing as Arsenal are averaging 5.84 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

Arsenal are also conceding 3.26 corners per game, so Manchester City should also be given encouragement to come away with at least three corners. This lines up well with Manchester City averaging 5.67 corners per game in the Premier League this term, with their corner conceded tally rising from 3.70 per game to 4.20 per game when playing away from the Etihad.

Each Team 2+ Cards 

There should be plenty of needle between these two sides with the rivalry that has developed between them since Arsenal emerged as serious contenders for the title.

The most recent meeting between the sides saw Manchester City pick up two cautions with Arsenal collecting one card. That game did see 21 match fouls, so we are likely to see a slight increase in the card count from that meeting with the added pressure and emotion of a cup final.

Manchester City have become a lot more aggressive when out of possession this season, collecting 56 yellow cards across 30 games in the Premier League - just one card fewer than they managed across the entirety of last season.

Atletico Madrid will make the short journey over to the Bernabeu on Sunday night, where the Madrid derby will take place. Both sides come into this clash on a high, having secured qualification to the Champions League quarter-finals midweek, so this promises to be an exciting contest. 

Head-to-head matchups between the two have been evenly-contested over the years - in the last 10 meetings, Real Madrid have secured three wins, Atletico have won four and there have been three draws. BTTS has landed in nine of those 10 games, including both meetings this season. 

The reverse fixture finished 5-2 to Atletico at the Metropolitano, as Diego Simeone’s men ran riot. Real Madrid got revenge though, as they eliminated their local rivals from the Spanish Supercup in January, with a 2-1 win in the semi-finals.

Atletico have struggled at the Bernabeu, and have failed to win in any of their last 10 visits across all competitions. While they have been able to carry a threat in the final third, scoring in each of the last six here, they could be in for a tough night defensively. 

Atletico conceded six corners in their last away game against their local rivals, as well as shipping seven corners against Tottenham last time out, but, they also contributed seven corners themselves to comfortably exceed this line. Prior to that, Barcelona racked up 15 corners against Diego Simeone’s men, although they were chasing the game after losing the first leg 4-0. 

Real Madrid are averaging 10.7 corners per game on home turf this season, with 6.7 for, and 4.0 against. 14 of the last 15 Madrid derbies have seen a minimum of nine corners, so there is plenty of scope for 10 or more on Sunday night.

Julian Alvarez is another player who put in a stellar performance midweek, as he contributed a goal and assist against Spurs. He alleviated the pressure on his side by scoring the equalising goal in the 47th minute, which was perfectly placed into the top corner from a swift counter-attack. He then provided the assist for David Hancko to head in from a corner. 

Alvarez had seven shots in that game, and three hit the target. He has turned up in the big games this season, and Diego Simeone will be relying on him once again to make the difference against Real Madrid. 

Alvarez bagged a brace against Los Blancos when these sides last met in the league, recording four shots in total in that game. He also popped up on the scoresheet on his last trip to the Bernabeu. The former Man City man has scored four goals in his six appearances against Real Madrid, landing this bet in five of those games.

Diego Simeone has a bit of a selection headache to contend with in midfield at the moment, as Pablo Barrios and Rodrigo Mendoza are out injured. Johnny Cardoso was entrusted to start midweek, and he put in an excellent performance against Spurs. He played the full 90, and was fouled three times. 

The American international is averaging 1.18 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, rising to 1.45 when playing away. He has landed this selection in six of his last seven starts on the road, highlighting how he sees plenty of the ball for Atletico, and he is adept at drawing contact. 

The 24-year-old looks set to start in his first Madrid derby this weekend, and he should have plenty of duels to contest in the middle of the park. Real Madrid racked up 14 fouls when these sides last met in the league.