Ajax’s recent form paints a worrying picture defensively, conceding 13 goals in their last five matches while only scoring eight in return and managing just a single victory in that stretch. Their back line looks disorganised, confidence appears low, and they’ve struggled to contain even moderate attacking threats. For a side associated with fluid attacking football, this current slump highlights deep issues. Galatasaray will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing such a vulnerable defence and should sense an opportunity to apply pressure and capitalise. With Ajax’s last five games featuring 21 total goals, the match profile clearly points toward an open contest, making over 2.5 goals a highly appealing angle.

While Galatasaray have only seen three of their last five fixtures go over this line, the Turkish league generally produces fewer high-scoring games compared to the Eredivisie, so Ajax’s chaotic game state is the key driver here.

Beyond goals, it’s difficult to oppose Galatasaray given their consistency this season. The Turkish outfit have started their campaign well, picking up 6 points from their opening 3 games, sitting 16th in the UCL standings (of 36) but will be aware of the challenge Ajax can pose, who sit rock bottom.

The visitors spent big in the summer bringing in Victor Osimhen permanently as well as Leroy Sane which has helped them notch just one loss in 14 games and look tough to beat. Ajax have just one win in five and were thrashed 5-1 by Chelsea in their last Champions League match.

Galatasaray have beaten Liverpool and Bodo/Glimt home soil and average 2.25 points per game away in the competition, compared to Ajax’s 1.4 at home.

Ajax haven't showed enough domestically to suggest they'll bag a win here.