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Qarabag v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips, 11/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Qarabag v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips, 11/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Tuesday 4 November, 20253 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Chelsea travel to face Qarabag having won two of their three games in the Champions League so far this season.

Chelsea’s only defeat across their last seven matches was a shock result against Sunderland, with the Blues winning the other six matches.

View more Football Match Stats, including Qarabag v Chelsea, ahead of kick-off.

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Qarabag v Chelsea Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Qarabag v Chelsea
  • Champions League
  • 17:45
4 Selections @ 4.08

Chelsea to Win

Enzo Maresca has now managed 79 games for Chelsea and won 50 of them. This works out as a win percentage of 63% which is a remarkable record for a manager over that many games in various competitions. It shows that Maresca is the man to work with this young Chelsea side and guide them in the right direction as none of the previous managers under this BlueCo ownership ever got close to that win percentage as Chelsea manager.

Chelsea come into this game on the back of a 1-0 win over Tottenham away from home which is always an important fixture in the calendar for Chelsea. Their squad is big enough to rotate for this clash, as we saw in the Conference League last season, with Chelsea playing against Wolves at the weekend. The Blues have won six of their last seven matches across all competitions.

Qarabag have certainly been one of the surprise packages in the Champions League so far with two wins from their three matches. They were beaten 3-1 by Athletic Club in their most recent outing and Chelsea should be able to come away winners by a similar margin. It’s important that Fhelsra do get all three points here with their next clash in the Champions League being against Barcelona. 

Over 1.5 Chelsea Cards

I would take this selection as a single as well, it’s pretty overpriced given Chelsea’s record when it comes to cards recently and over the last year as a whole. Enzo Maresca has seen his side pick up four red cards in the Premier League and Champions League already this season, highlighting the petulance of this young Chelsea side.

Chelsea have picked up 2+ cards in seven of their 10 matches in the Premier League this season and in two of three Champions League matches. This fixture may not be the most obvious one for Chelsea to pick up cards and oils as they are much stronger than the opposition, though it is still a European away tie that may prove to be more difficult than Chelsea first assume - Qarabag have won two of their three games in the Champions League so far this season.

Chelsea's strong card record across the early weeks of the campaign, supported by the fact they picked up the most cards of any side in the Premier League last season (99) suggests that the Blues can come away with at least two cards from this potentially awkward clash.

Jamie Gittens to have 2+ Shots

Jamie Gittens is starting to settle at Chelsea after a difficult opening few weeks in a Blues shirt. He scored his first goal for Chelsea in their 4-3 win over Wolves at Molineux with a wonderful strike from distance that mirrored Cisse’s incredible goal against Chelsea for Newcastle more than a decade ago.

The battle on Chelsea’s left hand side for a starting role is a really interesting one. You’ve got Garnacho and Gittens both vying for a starting role and Gittens is currently ahead in the pecking order with the end product he’s added to his game - Gittens has registered four goal contributions across his last five appearances for Chelsea in all competitions.

He’s had six shots across his 243 minutes of football in the Premier League this term (2.22 per 90) and averaged 2.62 shots per 90 across his 32 appearances in the Bundesliga last term. This selection is also strongly supported by Super Sub with Gittens likely to be replaced by Garnacho who also boasts a very high shot volume (3.44 shots per 90 in Premier League last season).

Leonardo Andrade to have 1+ Shots

When it comes to the potential threat that Qarabag will pose here, Andrarde stands out as a player who can cause Chelsea a few issues. He usually plays just behind the striker in the number 10 role and is the player that Qarabag look to for something special in matches.

Andrade has had three shots in the Champions League so far this season with at least one in each of his matches in the competition. This record has impressively returned two goals so Andrade has been pretty clinical when chances have fallen his way. This record in the Champions League is further supported by the six shots he had across four starts in the Europa League last season (1.35 per 90).

Data from Qarabag’s domestic league can be difficult to find, but Andrade netted 17 goals across all competitions for Qarabag last season with 15 of these goals coming domestically. Qarabag are clear underdogs here but players like Andrade can offer them moments of hope in what will be a difficult encounter.

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Qarabag v Chelsea Best Longshot Bets
  • Qarabag v Chelsea
  • Champions League
  • 17:45
3 Selections @ 12.11

Liam Delap to Score anytime

Liam Delap is fit again and should return to the starting eleven here to make his Champions League debut after an early spell on the sidelines for Chelsea. He was supposed to feature against Tottenham at the weekend but was suspended after being sent off against Wolves in Chelsea’s 4-3 win at Molineux.

That sending off doesn’t bar him from featuring here so it’s a good opportunity for Enzo Maresca to give Delap some match fitness ahead of a very busy period of the season. It’s notable that Chelsea’s next three matches, including this game, are against sides that will sit in low blocks. Chelsea have long had issues with trying to break these sides down but Delap can aid them in this task with his box presence and bullish ability.

Delap obviously hasn’t had much of a chance to make his impact in a Blues shirt yet, but did score for the club at the Club World Cup and netted 12 goals in the Premier League last season for Ipswich. I’m confident that he can make the step up to this level and deliver on his Champions League debut for Chelsea.

Matheus Silva to be shown a Card

Matheus Silva lines up at right back for Qarabag and has picked up one yellow card across his three appearances in the Champions League this term. He’s committed four fouls across these appearances (1.39 per 90) and will face up against Jamie Gittens and Marc Cucurella here.

Silva picked up his only caution in the Champions League in Qarabag’s 2-0 win over Copenhagen at home. He committed two fouls in the encounter and interestingly was also hauled down on seven occasions, so it may also be worth looking into the markets for Silva to win a few fouls. 

Gittens is a very direct winger and looks to take on his man as often as possible. He won 44 fouls across his 32 appearances in the Bundesliga last season (2.22 per 90) which is a record that suggests he can cause Silva problems in this matchup. The Brazilian fullback has shown clear signs of aggression which he may fail to temper against a winger with the confidence and form of Gittens.

Over 3.5 Goals

Chelsea regularly posted crazy scorelines during their Conference League campaign last term and while Qarabag are a slight step up from that level of opponent, Chelsea can still see another high scoring game here.

Chelsea recently saw seven goals in a 4-3 win over Wolves which highlighted the tendency of this Chelsea side to let opposition sides back into games. The Blues were 3-0 up at half time in that game and still allowed Wolves to get back into the game, so it’s fair to say that this Chelsea side rarely look comfortable when it comes to feeling home and dry in a game.

Chelsea’s six league phase games in the Conference League last season produced 31 goals (5.16 per game). Qarabag could also contribute to the goal count here seeing as they’ve seen 4+ goals in two of their three games in the Champions League this season, as have Chelsea. This promises another goal heavy clash here with Chelsea likely to do the majority of the heavy lifting.

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📂 Qarabag v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

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📈 Qarabag v Chelsea Form & Tactics

Qarabag have been lining up in a 4-2-3-1 in the Champions League so far this term and are unlikely to deviate from this shape given the success they’ve had in the Champions League so far this season. They do have talented players in the final third with the likes of Andrade and Zoubir, though winger Duran is a doubt for this clash which would be a blow to Qarabag.

Chelsea’s shape constantly changes based on what Enzo Maresca deems is the threat from the opposition. He’s recently experimented with having Lavia, Caicedo and Fernandez all in the side - probably to give the side some extra structure in the continued absence of Cole Palmer who remains sidelined for Chelsea, though he is reportedly eyeing up a return for Chelsea’s clash against Barcelona in a few weeks.

I’d expect some rotation here from Maresca with the volume of games that Chelsea have coming up. They welcome Wolves at home on the weekend which isn’t the most testing assignment seeing as the Wanderers are yet to win a game in the Premier League this season.


📔Qarabag v Chelsea Formation & Team News

Mikel Arteta was dealt an injury blow at the weekend, as Viktor Gyokores was replaced at half time with muscular discomfort. The Sweden international scored a brace in Arsenal’s last Champions League outing, so he will be a big miss on Tuesday night if he is ruled out. He joins Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Kai Havertz in the treatment room. There are also issues in midfield for the Gunners, as Martin Zubimendi was confirmed to have been taken off against Burnley with a niggle, so he is doubtful to feature here as well. 

Mikel Merino is set for a recall, potentially to lead the line, while Leandro Trossard is set to feature out on the left wing. 

Slavia Prague have persisted with a 3-4-3 shape this season, although that is likely to become a more pragmatic 5-4-1 against Arsenal, as they aim to be compact defensively. Slavia skipper Lukas Provod should feature in an advanced midfield position and will be the primary attacking threat for the hosts.


📊 Qarabag v Chelsea Key Stats

  • Chelsea have won six of their last seven matches across all competitions.

  • Qarabag have won two of their three games in the Champions League, against Benfica and Copenhagen.

  • Chelsea scored five goals in their most recent Champions League victory against Ajax.


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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