Guirassy continues to be one of the most underrated strikers across Europe and has netted 11 goals across his 18 appearances in all competitions this season. One of those goals has come in the Champions League, with Guirassy having three shots on target in three matches (1.02 per 90).

Guirassy has had 23 shots across his eight appearances in the Bundesliga this term (2.95 per 90) with 16 of those attempts finding the target (2.05 per 90). This works out to a shot accuracy of 70% which is pretty impressive given the shot volume of Guirassy in the early stages of the campaign.

The Guinea international delivered regularly for Dortmund in the Champions League last season, ending the campaign with 13 goals in the competition, which made him the joint-top scorer. He had 26 shots on target across those games (2.16 per 90), so he’s certainly capable of performing at this level. I’d also explore the goalscorer markets and higher shot lines for Guirassy given how promising his numbers are across the last year.

Nmecha has developed into a really complete player who sits at the heart of Dortmund’s midfield. He’s won seven fouls across his seven starts in the Bundesliga this term (1.03 per 90) as well as being fouled once across his two starts in the Champions League (0.53 per 90).

Nmecha won 26 fouls across his 19 starts in the Bundesliga last season (1.55 per 90), which is more reflective of his ability to win fouls over a larger sample size. He also won 15 fouls across his nine appearances in the Champions League last term (2.18 per 90), so he is a player we can expect to hold his own in the midfield battle.

It may also be worth looking into backing some City players to commit a foul, as Nmecha has the physical advantage over the likes of Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki, who are likely to be his opponents here. City aren’t the most physical side in the world, but may be forced to be here with Nmecha offering a really secure presence in the middle of the park for the travelling side.

City are better at dealing with transitions this season than they were last campaign, but that defensive vulnerability is still present, as illustrated by the fact that City have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last three matches across all competitions, with their last two games seeing BTTS.

Dortmund have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches in all competitions. They’ve seen BTTS in all three of their Champions League matches so far, with those games totalling 19 goals (6.33 per game). Their matches so far include a 4-4 draw against Juventus, a 4-2 win over Copenhagen and a 4-1 win over Athletic Club. This shows us that Dortmund have the scoring power required to cause City problems here.

City themselves shouldn’t have too many issues when it comes to finding the back of the net, seeing as they’ve scored in 12 of their last 13 matches across all competitions with the exception of their 1-0 defeat at the hands of Aston Villa a few weeks ago. Dortmund can work to be the latest side to exploit the few issues still troubling City at the back, with their record in the Champions League suggesting that goals won’t be an issue for Dortmund here.

Manchester City won nine corners in their 2-0 win over Napoli in their first Champions League game of the campaign, which is still the only game they’ve played at home in the UCL this term. City have won exactly three corners in both of their other Champions League matches, but being at home again should see that corner count rise.

City aren’t the most effective side from corners, but do tend to win quite a few with how they like to play. Their general dominance in games sees the ball spend a lot of time around the opposing penalty box and results in corners as a result of deflected shots or blocked crosses. Manchester City are averaging 5.50 corners per game in the Premier League this season, so you’d expect them to have at least four here as the home side.

This corner average increases to 7.80 corners per game when looking at their home games this term. This rise suggests that City naturally are more dominant in their home matches and can easily cover this corner line here, with there also being scope to back higher lines in accordance with City’s home average when it comes to corners and the nine they registered against Napoli.

Haaland is priced as low as 1.53 to get on the scoresheet here which tells you everything about his form recently. He added another two goals to his tally in City’s 3-1 win over Bournemouth last time out, taking his tally to 20 goals for the campaign across 17 appearances for Manchester City.

He had four shots on target in City’s win over Bournemouth and has had at least three shots on target in each of his last two Champions League appearances. This record has returned four goals across his three appearances in the Champions League matches with Haaland managing seven shots on target overall (2.46 per 90).

Haaland is averaging 4.51 shots per 90 and 2.62 shots on target per 90 across his 10 appearances in the Premier League this season. I think he’ll get opportunities to find the target on a few occasions here against a Dortmund side that have conceded in all three of their matches in the Champions League this term, conceding 2+ goals in two of those games.

Yan Couto is expected to line up as a wing back here, putting him up against Jeremy Doku who has matured into one of the most complete wingers in Europe. Doku created four chances against Bournemouth last time out in another excellent performance, which marked another step in his development as a Manchester City player.

Couto picked up five yellow cards across just eight starts in the Bundesliga last term. This tells us that Couto is pretty quick to aggression and can mistime his challenges, which are the perfect ingredients for a card when you’re up against a winger like Doku, who will constantly look to beat his man down the line. Couto averaged 1.22 fouls committed per 90 across that campaign last year, so it’s not like he has to commit loads of fouls to catch the attention of the referee.

Doku has won 14 fouls in the Premier League this season (2.30 per 90) and a further nine fouls across his three appearances in the Champions League (4.01 per 90).

As I've touched on in a few of these sections, Dortmund have been very open in the Champions League this season and I can see them being involved in another high scoring affair here. Dortmund shipped four goals against Juventus on matchday one in a crazy game which ended in a 4-4 draw. 

They may be able to cause City problems with their talented forward line, but their backline is vulnerable and can be exploited by Pep Guardiola’s side.

City have scored 3+ goals in each of their last two matches against Bournemouth in the Premier League and Swansea in the EFL Cup. They’ve scored 3+ goals on four other occasions this term, so they are more than capable of high goal tallies, particularly when you’ve got a player with the form of Erling Haaland at the moment.