Arsenal picked up six yellow cards when the sides clashed at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season. They covered this line inside 13 minutes, with Martin Zubimendi and Cristhian Mosquera picking up early cautions on that occasion and ended the game with a foul count of 13.

Mikel Arteta’s side are towards the bottom of the league for yellow cards this season, which is why the price is pretty generous, but the context surrounding this game should see them cover this line. Arsenal picked up four yellow cards in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Chelsea, showing again how the rivalry between the sides can lead to Arsenal picking up at least two cautions. 

I expect emotions to be fragile at the Emirates on Sunday afternoon, too. Arsenal know that they have to win the game to keep their distance from Manchester City in the title race, so Chelsea should have some instructions to tap into the frustration that should be present the longer Chelsea can stay in the game.

Chelsea have been pretty good at drawing cards from the opposition since Liam Rosenior took over. They’ve drawn 2+ cards in six of their seven Premier League matches under the former Strasbourg boss - and that is despite only drawing 10+ fouls in two of those games.

It’s not often that you’ll see this price for Cole Palmer to have 2+ shots in a Premier League game, and my guess would be that it’s been priced like this because of how good Arsenal are at limiting shots from their opponents - and Chelsea’s approach in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Arsenal.

Chelsea were quite passive in that game, but still managed to get 14 shots away. That is one of the highest shot totals that Arsenal have conceded at the Emirates all season. Palmer didn’t start the game but came on with 30 minutes to go and had one shot in his time on the pitch. 

Palmer has taken 38 shots across his 14 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.18 shots per 90. I don’t think he’s been at his best this season, but he has managed to maintain a similar shot average to last season (3.55 per 90), showing that he can still be a shot threat despite his recent dip in form. 

Palmer hasn’t started a game against Arsenal since the 2-2 draw between the sides back in 2023, a game in which he scored and had four shots. Chelsea have a dreadful record at the Emirates over recent seasons, though Palmer’s first start at the stadium may be what they need to finally get over the line against Mikel Arteta’s side.

Moises Caicedo has actually won more fouls than he has committed in the Premier League this season (38-35), which quite surprised me given how we’ve come to associate Caicedo with reckless challenges. His 38 fouls won in the Premier League works out to an average of 1.83 fouls won per 90 - making Caicedo an ideal candidate to draw a foul in this clash.

Caicedo has featured in two of Chelsea’s three games against Arsenal this season across the EFL Cup and Premier League. He was fouled twice in both of those games, including Chelsea’s 1-0 loss at the Emirates in the second leg. He’s been fouled in four of his last five Premier League appearances, with two of those games seeing Caicedo fouled 2+ times. 

Arsenal have committed 13 or more fouls in each of their three head-to-head meetings with Chelsea this season. This is above their seasonal average (10.1 per game), and suggests that Chelsea can bring out that extra layer of aggression from Mikel Arteta’s side. His main opponent here is likely to be Martin Zubimendi, who is averaging 0.95 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season.

I think Zubimendi has been one of the best signings in the Premier League this season. He’s settled Arsenal and allowed Declan Rice to play a more advanced role in the side. He’s adapted well to the speed and direct nature of the Premier League and is averaging 0.95 fouls committed per 90 coming into this clash.

Chelsea are set to line up with a midfield duo of Andrey Santos and Moises Caicedo here. Santos has become a favourite of Liam Rosenior in the early parts of his tenure, likely due to his familiarity with Rosenior’s tactics, seeing as the pair worked together at Strasbourg. He’s been very strong when it comes to drawing fouls over recent weeks, winning 2+ fouls in each of his last four Premier League appearances.

Zubimendi will also brush shoulders with Caicedo, who has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League appearances and is averaging 1.83 fouls won per 90. Zubimendi has committed a foul in each of the three head-to-head meetings between the sides across the EFL Cup and Premier League this term, committing 2+ fouls in two of those games.

Have we finally seen a corner turned by the big Swede? Perhaps that’s harsh, given that he has already netted 15 times for the Gunners, but it’s safe to say he hasn’t wowed us since his arrival from Sporting Lisbon.

It looked like his team-mates finally figured out how to get the best out of him. Get him into the left-hand channel, and isolate him against defenders because he can be truly destructive in those areas.

Gyokeres netted twice against Spurs, having four shots in total. His season average sits at 2.13 per 90, but this is him now playing with confidence. 

This has landed in over half his games when he’s played 65 minutes or more, and was also on target in the EFL Cup against Chelsea recently.

The bet being covered by Super Sub could be very advantageous, too. His likely replacement would be Gabriel Jesus, who has averaged 4.03 shots per 90, the most in the Arsenal squad.

Robert Sanchez deserves a lot more praise than he gets from both Chelsea fans and wider Premier League fans. He’s averaging 2.71 saves per 90 in the Premier League this season, and was forced into making three saves when the sides met earlier in the season.

It was Sanchez’s impressive shot-stopping skills which earned Chelsea a point in that encounter, with the Blues reduced to 10 men in the first half. He’s had to make 3+ saves in three of his last five Premier League appearances and should be routinely tested here by an Arsenal side, who simply need three points to keep their distance from Manchester City in the title race.

I often think Sanchez takes a lot of the blame for Chelsea’s issues at the back. He’s a reliable shot stopper, and although he does have the odd mistake in him, he still performs well when looking at his underlying numbers. Sanchez finished the season last year with the joint best save percentage in the Premier League (73.6%), and is currently operating around 70% - which is only bettered by three keepers in the Premier League this term.

Caicedo is never far away from my card picks, especially in big games. The combative, tough-tackling Ecuadorian was sent off in the previous Premier League meeting for a nasty challenge on Mikel Merino.

It’s nothing new for Caicedo, he’s been a serial offender since his arrival in the Premier League. He’s been carded 41 times in his last 132 PL matches.

That average of roughly one in three holds up against the Gunners, too. He’s played nine times against Arsenal and received three cards.

He’s been particularly naughty recently, with six cards in his last 16 matches for Chelsea in all competitions.

Of course, he’s consistent with fouls, too. He’s averaged 1.69 per 90 this season, and has made two or more on 16 separate occasions across all competitions for the Blues this season.

He’ll likely be close to the bang in-form Eberechi Eze, who draws an average of 1.64 fouls per 90.

Reece James has been moved back out to right back by Liam Rosenior, mainly to accommodate Andrey Santos in midfield.

James being at right back doesn’t mean he’ll be resigned to that part of the pitch for the whole contest. James drifts into midfield when Chelsea are in possession - with Rosenior occasionally looking to platform his full backs as number 10s. He’s a very modern coach, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few tweaks to his system for this game.

James played in midfield when the sides met earlier in the season, managing one shot in that game, in which he was the best player on the pitch - in the midst of a battle for the best midfielder between Moises Caicedo and Declan Rice. 

James has taken 16 shots across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 0.89 shots per 90. 13 of those efforts have come from outside of the box, which is significant as Chelsea aren’t likely to have constant access to the Arsenal penalty box.