Moises Caicedo has won at least one foul in each of his last three Premier League appearances for Chelsea, with two of those games seeing him win multiple fouls. He’s very difficult to knock off the ball and often wins fouls shortly after winning the ball back with opponents frustrated with his freakish ability to pinch the ball back.

Caicedo has won 17 fouls across his 11 Premier League appearances this season (1.62 per 90) with the Chelsea midfielder winning 5.71 duels per game at a success rate of 56.6%. He’ll be lining up against a combative Arsenal midfield with his clash against Martin Zubimendi, in particular, standing out here.

Zubimendi is mostly associated with his abilities on the ball but his metrics off the ball identify him as the most aggressive of Arsenal’s midfield trio. He’s committed 16 fouls across his 12 Premier League appearances this term (1.40 per 90) with only Riccardo Calafiori and Mikel Merino averaging more fouls committed per game for Arsenal in the Premier League this season.

This selection would be aided if Merino continues to lead the line here. Merino drops into pockets when acting as the number nine for Arsenal so will brush shoulders with Caicedo regularly if Viktor Gyokeres isn’t quite fit enough to start. Merino is the most aggressive player in the Arsenal squad and has committed 11 fouls across just five starts in the Premier League (1.97 per 90).

Eberechi Eze was hauled down three times in Arsenal’s 3-1 win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League during the week, highlighting how strong the Arsenal player is when it comes to winning fouls. There are plenty of players capable of bringing him down in the middle of the park for Chelsea, with Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez looking particularly likely to foul the 27-year-old.

Eze has reached a new level with the consistency of his performances for Arsenal this season. He’s always had this level of quality, but is now doing it week in week out, with recent impressive displays against Tottenham and Bayern Munich confirming his status as one of the best players in Europe at the moment. His clever movement has won him 13 fouls in the Premier League this season (1.47 per 90), and Chelsea’s midfielders won’t hesitate to hack him down.

Moises Caicedo is likely to be his main opponent here with Eze given the freedom of the middle of the park after not really being involved when deployed on the left. Caicedo has committed 14 fouls across his 11 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.33 per 90), with Fernandez also likely to have a few run-ins with Eze. Fernandez has committed 10 fouls across his 11 Premier League appearances this term (0.93 per 90).

Chelsea’s temperament has shown signs of improving in recent weeks after that flurry of red cards they sustained earlier in the campaign, but the Blues can’t help but get sucked into an occasion like this. The youthful nature of the squad shows in these fixtures with Chelsea often unable to resist the petulance which has seen them collect more yellow cards than any other side in the Premier League across the last two seasons.

Chelsea have picked up 2+ cards in eight of their 12 matches in the Premier League this season, with the Blues collecting 26 in total, alongside three red cards (2.41 per game). Arsenal have drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in eight of their 12 matches in the top-flight this term and can look to goad a young Chelsea side into some cheap cautions.

The referee for this game is Anthony Taylor, which is a really significant appointment as he has a long history with Chelsea. Taylor has been at the scene of many controversial decisions involving Chelsea, with notable moments including Thomas Tuchel v Antonio Conte on the touchline a few seasons ago and handing out the most yellow cards ever shown in a Premier League match when Chelsea took on Bournemouth last term. 

Chelsea committed 12 fouls and picked up four yellow cards in this fixture last season, and should post similar numbers here when considering their temperament in these big matches. 

Chelsea haven’t beaten Arsenal at Stamford Bridge since 2018 with the last two meetings ending in 1-1 and 2-2 draws. I think we’ll get a similar game here with both managers being the type to obsess over little details and leave no stone unturned in their preparation.

If I was Arteta, I’d look to sit in a mid to low block here. Chelsea have had real issues in breaking down this block, and Arsenal have the best defensive shape in Europe, so they can look to frustrate Chelsea through that avenue. However, four of the six goals that Arsenal have conceded in the Premier League have come on the road - so if you are going to score against the Gunners, it’s likely to be as the home side.

Arsenal have failed to keep clean sheets in each of their last two matches, and while both goals they conceded were very special goals - Chelsea have the players in the attacking third to produce stunning moments. Pedro Neto scored from distance in this fixture last season, and Estevao has already shown that he can glide through a defence on his own.

Chelsea’s backline can also be exploited by an Arsenal side that have scored eight goals across their six away matches this season. BTTS has landed in each of Arsenal’s last two fixtures at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hunting their first victory against the Gunners since a 3-2 win under Maurizio Sarri.

Joao Pedro leads Chelsea for both goals and assists this season with seven goal contributions across his 12 Premier League appearances (four goals, three assists). He was unfortunate to miss out in Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Barcelona last time out, but the tactical demands of the game meant that Enzo Maresca had to put an extra workmanlike player in the middle of the park.

Joao Pedro has achieved these goal contributions from a combined xG and xA of 4.90, suggesting that he is being clinical in front of goal and that his team-mates are making the most of the chances he creates. 

Joao Pedro also has a notable recent history against Arsenal, having scored home and away against the Gunners last season for Brighton. He has made a habit of popping up in the most important moments for Chelsea, with his goals against Tottenham, and PSG in the Club World Cup, coming to mind. 

Arsenal committed 16 fouls against Bayern Munich last time out, and committed exactly 12 fouls in this fixture last season. Chelsea are a pretty strong side when it comes to winning fouls, with 12+ fouls drawn in nine of their 12 matches in the Premier League this term.

This record includes drawing at least 12 fouls in each of their last five matches, offering real promise when looking for Arsenal to end up with a high foul count at Stamford Bridge. The derby element of this game should aid this selection with there already being a layer of animosity between the sides before the kick-off - this could be further fuelled by the fact that these sides are separated by just six points in the Premier League, making this a pivotal clash.

Arsenal are not the most aggressive side in the Premier League, but have seen a recent spike in the number of fouls they commit, with 11+ fouls committed in each of their last three matches heading into this contest. The context surrounding this game, partnered with Chelsea’s strong foul won record, should be enough to see Arsenal’s foul numbers rise here. 

Fofana has been very fortunate to avoid a yellow card in the Premier League so far this season, with six fouls committed across his five Premier League appearances (1.75 per 90).

Fofana is the most aggressive player of the current Chelsea centre backs, which will be an important trait here as he faces up against either Viktor Gyokeres or Mikel Merino. Either opponent is likely to antagonise Fofana, who doesn’t need a lot of stimulation to become reckless with his challenges.

Fofana picked up seven yellow cards across his 14 appearances in the Premier League last season, highlighting how aggressive the Frenchman can be in the tackle.