This is Chelsea’s most important remaining game of the league phase in the Champions League, with the Blues facing off against a side that have won three of their five matches and sit level on points with them, heading into the final few fixtures.

Chelsea face Pafos at home next, a side you would expect them to beat comfortably, before travelling to Napoli on the final matchday, which may be an awkward task - but as it stands, Antonio Conte’s side aren’t a rival to finish in the top eight. 

Chelsea have been pretty bright in the final third in the Champions League so far, with an average of 5.20 shots on target per game in the competition. Only five sides have scored more goals than Chelsea in the league phase of the Champions League, and Enzo Maresca is likely to go for the win here, knowing that it could secure Chelsea a spot in the top eight.

Chelsea are also averaging 5.10 shots on target per game in the Premier League this term, with this tally only bettered by Manchester City and Arsenal.

This shows that the Blues can create chances with ease, but when watching Chelsea, it’s clear to see that they still have an issue with being clinical - this should allow for the shot on target count to stack up as Chelsea are unlikely to draw blood from their first few strikes.

My opinion of Robert Sanchez has shifted over recent months when watching Chelsea. He’s still got a mistake in him, but there is no denying that he is one of the better shot-stoppers in the Premier League, and Chelsea often lean on him to get them out of jail when they’re performing poorly.

This was the case in their 0-0 draw against Bournemouth last time out, in which Sanchez was forced into making five saves. He was awarded Player of the Match for his performance and walked away with an xG prevented of 0.76, as well as his seventh clean sheet in the Premier League this term. Sanchez has been forced into making 30 saves across his 15 Premier League appearances this term.

In the Champions League, Sanchez has been called to action nine times across his four appearances in the competition (2.25 per game). Atalanta have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in three of their five matches in the Champions League this season, with two of those, notably, being at home.

Ederson plays as one of two central midfielders in Atalanta’s 3-4-3 system, which means he has to cover a lot of ground, and is often the player that has to make tactical fouls to protect the back three, who can often be vulnerable in transition when Atalanta lose the ball in dangerous areas.

Ederson has committed 11 fouls across his 10 appearances in Serie A this term (1.38 per 90) and maintains an average of 2.03 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League. This increase tells us that the superior quality of the Champions League brings out an even higher level of aggression from him.

His potential opponents offer real promise when looking for Ederson to commit a foul here. Moises Caicedo should return to the Chelsea starting lineup after being absent for the last two matches against Bournemouth and Leeds due to suspension. 

Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez combine to win 3.72 fouls per 90 in the Champions League and will cause Atalanta problems, especially with the overloads Chelsea can create in midfield by using one of their full backs. 

Ederson could also face up against Cole Palmer later in the contest, as he may not be ready to start two games in a row after completing 60 minutes against Bournemouth last time out on his return to fitness. Palmer was Chelsea’s most fouled player across all competitions last season, and can offer a threat to Ederson if he is introduced later on in the game.

Enzo Fernandez has won 11 fouls across his five appearances in the Champions League this term (2.82 per 90), winning at least one foul in each of those games, with four of the fixtures seeing him win 2+ fouls.

Fernandez has struggled a little over the last week in Chelsea’s matches against Leeds and Bournemouth. I sometimes feel as though he doesn’t offer enough to Chelsea if he doesn’t have Moises Caicedo next to him, which is a bit of an issue as you’d like a player of Fernandez’s value and quality to be able to control games even when Caicedo is out of the side.

Fernandez has also been pretty strong when it comes to winning fouls in the Premier League. He’s been hauled down 15 times across his 14 Premier League appearances, drawing at least one foul in eight of those matches. 

His main midfield opponent here will be Ederson, offering a decent angle for two legs of our bet builder to land in one action - alongside backing the Brazilian to commit a foul. I think this matchup could warrant testing higher lines for Fernandez to win fouls, he’s priced at 3.20 to win 2+ fouls.

Estevao has saved his best performances for the Champions League so far in his Chelsea career, with three of his six goal contributions coming in the competition so far. 

Enzo Maresca has noted that the Champions League is a better competition for Estevao to find his feet at Chelsea, due to the lower physicality and intensity levels of the tournament when compared to the Premier League.

Estevao’s last two goals for Chelsea have come in the Champions League, with these strikes coming against Barcelona and Qarabag.

Estevao is likely to get more intense attention as he shows just how talented he is, but for now, he can use the slightly slower pace of the Champions League to his advantage. 

This isn’t to say that Estevao will never be able to handle the physicality of the English game, but it certainly helps to have a competition like this where he gets a bit more time on the ball.

Estevao has scored in each of his last three Champions League appearances, managing 14 shots in the competition (4.09 p/90) as well as creating eight chances (2.34 p/90) and having 32 touches in the opposition penalty box (9.35 p/90).

Reece James has settled into a midfield role for Chelsea with the 26-year-old lining up there in each of his last three appearances for Chelsea across all competitions. His most impressive performance in this run was against Arsenal, where he dominated the game, despite Chelsea playing with 10 men for the majority of the encounter.

He’s set to continue in midfield here with Enzo Maresca changing his profile from an energetic full back to an industrious midfielder. This switch is mainly due to James’ injury record; his body couldn’t handle bombing up and down the wing every single week, so this switch allows Chelsea to keep James on the pitch while still getting many of his brilliant qualities.

This switch to midfield also helps James’ chances when it comes to having an effort on target. James has had three shots across his four appearances in the Champions League this term (1.08 p/90), with two of those shots finding the target (0.72 p/90). All three of the efforts came from outside of the box, which may also be an angle worth exploring further, as James can also be a threat from free kicks.

Wesley Fofana has been due a caution for a number of weeks now when looking over his foul numbers for Chelsea, and general aggression as a centre back. 

Fofana has committed five fouls across his two appearances in the Champions League this season (2.50 per 90) and will be up against a front three of Lookman, Scamacca, and De Ketelaere for Atalanta here.

That trio combine to win 3.85 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term, so we can anticipate that they will cause Fofana problems. 

Atalanta are likely to get their best moments in transition here; Chelsea nearly always dominate the ball, but can be vulnerable to sides breaking quickly against them if they grow complacent in matches.

Fofana picked up seven yellow cards across his 14 Premier League appearances last season and is showing the same level of aggression for Chelsea this term. This hasn’t translated into cautions yet, but it should if he continues to show this level of aggression.