Atletico Madrid’s home form has made them 2.30 favourites to win this encounter, yet Barcelona’s stoicism in recent matches should be respected as well as the Catalans’ record against the Mattress Makers.

On top of this, Atleti have the disadvantage of having played 24 hours later than Barca in midweek – and not only that, they had to endure the physical and mental fatigue of going through extra time and penalties before overcoming Inter. This has the potential to take its toll.

While it’s possible to make a case for any outcome as the final score, Barcelona would be disappointed to leave with a multi-goal defeat. It may not be the boldest of bets, but backing FCB with a +1.5 handicap at 1.17 looks the best value on offer. For the more daring, backing the guests with a +0.5 handicap at 1.57 is also tempting given their propensity to draw on the road.

It’s also worth looking at the past Atletico Madrid v Barcelona statistics on the goal lines. While Atleti’s 14 home games are averaging more than 3 goals per game, this is likely to be a tighter affair. Diego Simeone is unlikely to be expansive in his approach, while Barcelona have not conceded in their last three.

When these sides met back in December, there were only six shots on target in the whole match, with Joao Felix offering two of these. The Portugal international was benched in midweek but is priced at 4.2 to repeat that feat.

What is a little more surprising given recent Barcelona stats is that Robert Lewandowski is as big as 1.30 to have a single shot on target. He was going through a dry spell when Barca last met Napoli but has scored six times in his last seven starts. While he is scoring goals, his volume of shots on target has been relatively low, showing he has been highly efficient.

Atleti, meanwhile, gave up lots of shots to Inter’s most attacking midfielders in midweek, with Hakan Calhanoglu having six efforts on goal. He failed to find the target. Fermin Lopez, who scored against Napoli in midweek, is unlikely as to be as forgiving and is 2.38 to have a shot on target, as he has done in his last four matches.

While Antoine Griezmann has put up some strong shooting numbers for Atletico this season, there has to be a question about just how much he can play. He played over 100 high-intensity minutes in midweek after three weeks out.

Alvaro Morata to have a shot on target is a conservative bet at 1.2. He has failed to do so in two of his last four starts, but this is out of character.

At 1.73, left wing-back Samuel Lino offers better value. Simeone is playing with his wide players stationed far forward and the result of this is the Brazilian having shots on target in seven of his last eight games.

The Atletico Madrid v Barcelona stats show that when these sides met previously in La Liga, it was the Catalans who were the main offenders. Of their starting back four, Jules Kounde, Ronald Araujo and Joao Cancelo all committed at least three fouls. There was not a single Atleti player who gave away more than one free kick.

With Atleti play with high wing-backs, the prices of 1.57 for Kounde to commit one foul or 3.75 for him to commit multiple look huge.

Similarly, with Fermin Lopez averaging 2.92 fouls per 90 – the highest of any likely Barcelona starter – his price of 1.25 to give away one free kick looks sizeable. The young midfielder has committed infringements in his last four La Liga matches – despite not starting any of them. He is likely to feature from the beginning here.

From an Atletico Madrid perspective, Stefan Savic and Koke both committed four fouls in midweek, yet after playing 120 minutes, they could easily be rotated out. If Reinildo comes in at centre back, his price of 1.30 is big.

Morata is the likeliest home player to be an offender. He posts 1.41 fouls per 90 and was one of five Atleti starters to record one foul in the last meeting.

Despite their hard-nosed reputation, Atleti have the ability to hold it together under pressure and generally share the fouls around their team.

To this end, look to Antoine Griezmann to commit a foul against a team he left with little fondness. He has fouls in four of his last five outings and at 1.83 is the longest-priced of Atleti’s regular starters ahead of this game.