Lewandowski has been a strong pick in the fouls-drawn market throughout the season, averaging 1.59 fouls won per 90 minutes across all competitions.

He’s demonstrated remarkable consistency, drawing at least 1 foul in each of his last 9 games, and at least 2 fouls in 5 of those matches. This selection has also come home in each of Lewandowski’s 4 matches against Atletico Madrid.

We’re unlikely to see an exception on Tuesday given his likely matchup with Robert Le Normand. The Centre-back is one of Atletico’s most prolific sinners, having averaged 1.65 fouls per 90 this season.

Lamine Yamal’s average of 1.52 shots on target per 90 minutes is Barcelona’s joint-best alongside Raphinha, who has been priced far shorter at 1.25.

The youngster has tested the keeper at least once in 11 of his most recent 12 games, only falling short last time out against Las Palmas despite taking 3 close-range shots and winning man of the match.

Although Atletico generally put up a fairly resolute defence, they’ve struggled against their fellow title-contenders, conceding 20 shots on target across 3 matches v Real Madrid and Barcelona.

No side in La Liga can top Barcelona’s average of 6.28 corners per game, a sizable improvement on Atletico’s 4.84 which ranks 9th compared to the other teams. Hansi Flick’s men have been particularly consistent in this department at home, managing at least 5 in 14 of their 16 matches at home this season.

Looking at the corners conceded per game, it’s a pretty negligible difference with Atletico coming out just on top, conceding 3.96 per 90 compared to Barcelona’s 4.52.

The last time these sides clashed, Barcelona racked up a remarkable 11 corners, conceding just 3.

Despite no doubt being the underdogs ahead of this clash, Atletico should be able to test the keeper on at least 3 occasions, as evidenced by their league average of 4.48 shots on target per game.

They’ve fired off at least 3 shots on target in 15 of their most recent 16 domestic matches, including their last clash with Barcelona in which they tested Szczęsny 4 times. This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given Simeone’s men have managed at least 3 shots on target in each of their last 8 clashes with Barcelona, last failing to do so in 2020.

Barcelona’s recent form also suggests there could be value here, with them having conceded at least 3 shots on target in 11 of their last 15 league matches, despite having a fairly easy run of fixtures over the period.

With no player coming close to rivalling Galan’s average of 2.14 fouls per 90 in La Liga, backing him to sin twice is a great shout.

Despite severely reduced minutes, the fullback has committed at least 2 fouls in 3 of his last 5 games, with 2 of those occasions spanning just 45 minutes and his longest appearance over the period being just 63 minutes.

He’s set to come up against Lamine Yamal which should make for an interesting matchup, given the Spaniard is Barcelona’s most fouled player. He’s averaging 2.16 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions and is likely to give Galan a torrid time.

Barcelona are the well-merited favourites here and boast a strong record against Atletico Madrid, despite slipping up against them earlier this season. On that occasion they lost 2-1, although, the xG count read 2.72-0.63 in Barca’s favour.

Since then, Barcelona have recorded 11 wins and 2 draws across all competitions, winning each of their last 5. It’s also worth mentioning that Atletico do tend to struggle against Barcelona, having lost each of the last 5 previous to this season.

Although Atletico are by no means the dirtiest side in La Liga, their average of 2.44 cards per 90 implies significant value, especially when compared to Barcelona who average just 1.92 per match.

Another hugely significant factor is how many cards the opponents of each side tend to pick up. Atletico’s opponents have been awarded an average of 1.64 cards – the fewest of any side in La Liga by some distance. Barcelona’s opposition have averaged a much more impressive 2.68.

The last time these sides clashed, 3 cards were awarded with all 3 going Atletico’s way.

Finally, we’re also backing Le Normand to sin at least twice. He’s averaged 1.80 fouls per 90 in La Liga which is second only to the aforementioned Galan amongst predicted starters.

He’s committed at least 2 fouls in 8 of his 13 league starts, notably including 3 of his most recent 4. Given Barcelona are one of La Liga’s most fouled sides and he’s got a particularly tricky matchup, he represents a lot of value here.

Le Normand is set to face off with Lewandowski, who’s averaged 1.59 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions. The Polish forward has drawn 2+ fouls in 5 of his most recent 9 matches.