This is a tight game to call, and that is reflected in the prices. Atletico Madrid are on offer at 2.8 with Inter at 2.5 and the draw at 3.2.

While this really does appear the type of match that could go either way, Atleti’s formidable home record is perhaps being a little underplayed, particularly as it appears that talisman Antoine Griezmann will be fit to play after ankle trouble.

Real Madrid, after all, visited the Wanda Metropolitano and were beaten 3-1, though Los Blancos are the only team of comparable power to Inter to visit a venue that has been something of a fortress.

This has been especially evident in European football. Their last home defeat on the continent was, ironically, against Milan in November 2021. They have played eight times since, winning four and drawing four. A price of 1.57 on them to avoid defeat is appealing.

Meanwhile, a tight match appears on the cards. Although Inter have scored 70 Serie A goals in 28 games, this prolific form has not transferred into their European matches. They have scored nine in seven Champions League games.

The Atletico Madrid stats show, meanwhile, that their last seven knockout Champions League ties have had under three goals.

While the odds are against this run breaking, the situation of the tie makes Over 2.5 goals at 2.1 tempting.

The bookmakers have Alvaro Morata as the shortest-priced player to manage a shot on target. The Spaniard changed the dynamic of Atleti when he came on in the first leg and at least suggested they could unsettle an Inter defence that did not give up a single shot on target in that match. If he starts, he has shown that he is likely to test Yann Sommer.

One of the reasons that Diego Simeone’s side were so impotent was the withdrawn wide role that Antoine Griezmann was asked to play. He has since been missing because of an ankle problem but will be fit to return in this match. The Frenchman will surely be given a more central role to hurt Inter from, making his 1.44 to have a shot on target attractive.

The most eye-catching player from the first leg, meanwhile, was Lautaro Martinez. He had seven shots overall and three on target, accounting for 60% of those that found the mark in the whole game. Given the overall threat that he posed, it’s hard to see him being quelled entirely even by Atleti’s renowned defence.

A slightly more leftfield option, quite literally, is wing-back Federico Dimarco. With 0.78 shots on target per 90, the Inter stats show he ranks third among their likely starters. Moreover, he has worked the keeper in two of his last three outings. A price of 2.38 for a single shot on target looks good value, especially if Inter are forced to attack more at any point in the game.

Similarly, Atletico Madrid’s left wing-back Samuel Lino offers an attacking threat. He boasts 0.96 shots on target per 90 and has had efforts at goal in six of his last seven matches. The Brazilian may just be the outstanding bet in this market, especially with Atleti chasing the tie.

Saul Niguez is priced at 1.08 to commit at least one foul in this match, but the midfielder is out of favour and has not played more than 45 minutes after being substituted in the first leg. There is better value on offer for an Atletico Madrid v Inter Milan bet builder.

Atleti are a smart team defensively, and while tough and physical, share the fouls around well. In the first leg, they committed only eight infringements among their starting players. Remarkably, their substitutes gave up more free kicks, with Stefan Savic conceding four.

Atleti have five regular starters who commit more than one foul per 90 on average, yet four of them did not give up a single free kick at San Siro. The exception was Rodrigo De Paul, who gave away two. He is on offer at 1.25 to give away just one here, which seems probable.

Of Simeone’s other regular offenders, Nahuel Molina is the longest priced at 1.4. He averages 1.09 fouls per 90 and after not giving away a free kick in the first leg he seems overdue an infringement.

In terms of players who win free kicks, De Paul is the player likeliest for Atleti, with 2.68 per game. Given he was only given 45 at the weekend, it should be expected he will play the duration here if required and he should draw fouls, although it is worth noting he did not in the first leg.

Inter were also relatively clean in the first leg at San Siro, giving away only 10 free kicks over the course of the match. Interestingly, their leading criminals, Lautaro Martinez and Hakan Calhanoglu combined for only one foul. With more pressure expected to be exerted in Inter, 1.17 on the Argentine to give away a free kick looks a nice way to boost an Inter bet builder.

Alessandro Bastoni looks best priced to commit a foul for Inter. He averages 1.3 fouls per 90 and gave up two free kicks in the first leg. He is priced at 1.3 to give away a single free kick or 2.4 to give up multiple again.