In this article…
Blackburn v Preston
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Kick Off: Friday 10th November at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Two teams that missed out on the play-offs last year are back in the hunt again and although there is a long way to go, the top six spots in the Championship look to be filling up fast.
Preston North End are currently in sixth after a positive start to the campaign. However, the Lilywhites had to break a seven-game run without a win last weekend at home to Coventry, so they have slipped down the table of late.
Blackburn Rovers have almost had the opposite season. They sit in tenth, only three points behind their visitors on Friday, but whilst Rovers have impressed with their style and their attacking play, the results haven’t quite matched the performances.
Both managers probably count as experienced Championship operators at this stage. Indeed, both men can be found in the top five longest-serving managers in the league. Tomasson is clearly evolving this Blackburn side into a very competent attacking outfit, despite not yet being able to find a prolific number nine.
North End did a job on Blackburn at Ewood last season and the Rovers fans would dearly love to see a measure of revenge over their local rivals. Fo more detail on the clubs’ two most recent meetings you can check out our Head to Head article here.
This could be a great game for a bet, and in this article, we will break down the key stats to give you the best possible chance of landing a nice Friday night bet builder winner, to set yourself up for the rest of the weekend.
Blackburn v Preston Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find Blackburn vs Preston on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🌹 Blackburn stats: A huge threat to any Championship defence
Blackburn have the fifth-highest xG numbers in the Championship and they have translated that into the highest big chances created numbers.
The fact that Rovers are tenth in the league though obviously points to the fact that they haven’t been efficient in turning that into goals and wins. Indeed, their shots and shots on target totals are more in the upper mid-table region, where they actually do sit in the league.
Despite this being a local match, it isn’t of the same ferocity of a Blackburn v Burnley or a Preston v Blackpool match. Therefore we can perhaps expect a relatively normal and predictable pattern of play with Blackburn dominating possession and trying to work through the organised Preston defence.
Rovers tend to be good at creating decent chances so the opportunity should be there to get shots on target.
Prediction: Blackburn to have 4+ shots on target @ 1.30
Prediction: Blackburn to have 5+ shots on target @ 1.73
⚪ Preston stats: Slight overperformance continues to linger over the Lilywhites
Preston have seen their results drop off from a very strong start. The start that they had was always going to be unsustainable, the wins were coming via narrow margins and based on a good spell of finishing from their forwards.
The underlying numbers continue to demonstrate the issue that Ryan Lowe has to solve. Preston currently have one of the lowest xG totals in the Championship, which suggests that they aren’t creating as many chances as most.
Indeed, Preston scored 21 goals from 14 xG, 7 goals more than their xG process suggests they should have at this stage, according to the quality of their shooting chances.
However, they have been pretty good defensively. They actually have an underperformance in that regard, they have conceded 17xGA but their goals against is 23, so they have also been slightly unfortunate in that regard.
Prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.73
Prediction: Blackburn to win @ 1.91
🎯 Blackburn offensive stats: Szmodics a standout threat
Blackburn’s attack can be quite difficult to stop, as it can be built from anywhere on the pitch, even from the goalkeeper.
Their finishing has left a lot to be desired though. Blackburn sit top of the Championship for big chances created, but also for big chances missed.
The main forward player who has come out of the season so far with the most credit is Sammie Szmodics. The former Peterborough man will probably have the captain’s armband for the evening in the absence of Lewis Travis and Dominic Hyam, and he has taken on that responsibility well in the past.
Szmodics is the standout option in the shot markets for Blackburn, he is well clear of anyone else on shots taken, shots on target, and goals scored. As he is nominally an attacking midfielder it has taken a while for the prices to come in line with Szmodics being Blackburn’s key goal threat, and there is still a touch of value with him.
Prediction: Sammie Szmodics to have 2+ shots @ 1.3
Prediction: Sammie Szmodics to have 3+ shots @ 2.0
🎯 Preston offensive stats: Millar having an impact on the left
Preston are sitting in the bottom four for xG for so far this season, and bottom five for shots on target per match,; they are not a side that massively appeal in the team shot markets.
However, there is an interesting angle from a player perspective. Whilst the forward line has been revamped this season, none of the main protagonists really dominate the shots for PNE.
One new signing who is of interest though is Liam Millar. The Canadian international is being moulded into a left-wing back in Ryan Lowe’s system, but he is traditionally more of a forward. Millar averages just over 2 shots a match, and is the only Preston player that does so this season.
Prediction: Liam Millar to have 1+ shots @ 1.14
Prediction: Liam Millar to have 2+ shots @ 1.91
🛑 Blackburn defensive stats: Adam Wharton to mix steel with style
Blackburn are not a team that commit a huge number of fouls. Indeed, they are in the bottom four in the league on that metric.
Despite this, they have managed two red cards, though Scott Wharton’s red against Norwich has been rescinded, and 35 yellow cards. This would suggest that they perhaps concede fouls in poor areas or that they are picking up cautions for other reasons.
In this game, Adam Wharton is expected to start alongside Sondre Tronstad. The Norwegian has had a really positive effect on Rovers since being introduced to the side, and is unlikely to make way for Lewis Travis here. Travis is well-known as a competitive battler, but with him not in the starting XI, the onus could fall more on Adam Wharton.
The academy product is much coveted by Premier League sides, but is more well-known for his silky first touch and passing vision. The truth is that his combative nature is underplayed, Wharton actually leads Rovers in fouls committed and is second in tackles made.
Prediction: Adam Wharton to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.30
Prediction: Adam Wharton to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.50
Prediction: Adam Wharton to be shown a card @ 4.0
🛑 Preston defensive stats: High foul count expected from North End
Preston keep a pretty tight ship defensively and are known for a well-organised unit. They play a 3-man central defence with two central midfielders and the team is set up to be a very competitive outfit.
North End are safely in the top half of the league for their defensive data, an xG conceded of just over a goal per game is sound for this Championship season at the moment.
However, Preston are found near the top of the foul count and the yellow card totals for the season. The Deepdale outfit are fourth in the league for fouls, averaging 13.2 per game, almost four more than Blackburn across a match. They are also third for yellow cards at 39 across the season, though they are yet to see a sending-off.
Alan Browne will be a big part of the midfield battle and as captain will lead by example. There is also a chance that he will be partnered by Ben Whiteman, as opposed to Ryan Ledson. This makes a big difference because Whiteman commits nowhere near the number of fouls that Ledson does, therefore the balance would be very different in midfield, placing the onus more heavily on Browne.
Another player to watch out for if he starts is Will Keane. Again, Keane commits a much higher rate of fouls than Milutin Osmajic, so could be a value option.
Prediction: Alan Browne to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.25
Prediction: Alan Browne to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.20
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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