In this article…
Blackburn v Wrexham
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Kick off: Monday 29th January at 19:00
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: BBC One Wales
Here at Andy’s Bet Club, we’re all over the FA Cup fourth round with the site featuring FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. It’s not just the FA Cup either though, with a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond available for this weekend’s action.
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There is every chance that Wrexham have more fans in the stadium than the home side for the final FA Cup 4th round tie of the weekend.
There is a malaise around Ewood Park as the team slips down the Championship table and the fans become disenchanted with the prospect of a potential relegation battle, rather than the play-off challenge that they expected.
Wrexham have the entire Darwen End to themselves and they have managed to sell out of away tickets. It is not a particularly far commute, even for a Monday night, and the excitement generated around the club ever since the Hollywood takeover of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney is fuelling a huge increase in ticket sales for the North Wales club.
Wrexham, of course, have famous FA Cup pedigree with ‘that’ Mickey Thomas goal and a win against Arsenal from 1992. This is probably an easier task than that, with Wrexham flying in League Two and Rovers struggling in the Championship, and being back by such vociferous support, even away from home, could make all the difference in the end.
By using the data accrued by the respective clubs during the season and the cheat sheet that displays lots of the most relevant information, we can construct a few pieces of advice for bet builders below. However, we have to be very aware of the divisional difference between the clubs as well.
Blackburn v Wrexham Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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⚽️ Match stats: Blackburn more of an attacking team
Blackburn’s performance data demonstrates that over the season they have, at times, excelled in their attacking play. They have consistently been in the top echelon of Championship teams for xG creation and big chances created, and missed, which has been one of their key issues this season as well.
Though these numbers have dropped off slightly, part of that has been down to the injury problem that they have had to endure in recent weeks. Many of those players are back or are almost back, so there will be no easy ride for Wrexham from a defensive perspective.
Rovers have already put a League One team to the sword at Ewood this season, putting 5 past Cambridge. However, they were behind twice in that match too, which backs up the fact that Blackburn’s defence is one of the poorest in the Championship. Rovers have now conceded the most goals in the league, and also they allow the most shots against them.
Wrexham have scored a lot of goals since the takeover, but the vast majority of those goals, this season, have come at home. They are averaging less than a goal a game away from the Racecourse Ground. Overall they sit 4th in the league for xG created, but 7th for xG against.
This away record may be mitigated by the support they will have in the ground for this match, but it will still be a tough ask playing a team two divisions above. There are probably too many unknowns and a bit too much guesswork to add a result-based bet to the bet builder, a single on a Wrexham win at the prices does appeal, but in terms of a bet builder selection, goals is probably the best avenue to take from looking at the data.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.45
🥅 Goalscorer stats: Data suggests that there could be a number of shots in the game
Wrexham are just one shot off the summit of the top team shots on target in League Two, 157 compared to Mansfield 158. They average just over 15 shots a match, with almost 6 of them being on target.
It is difficult to imagine, especially given Blackburn’s usual set-up in games, that Wrexham won’t have their fair share of shots here. In terms of who will be a threat and who is worth backing in the goals market.
Paul Mullin is an obvious contender for this market but he is too short at 6/4, whereas Elliot Lee looks a good price. The former Luton man is almost ever-present for Wrexham and is a real goal threat as Wrexham’s top shot taker and highest goalscorer this season.
Rovers also have a real problem at set pieces at the moment. This could see James McClean take advantage, and as a speculative single, though probably not for a bet builder, Eoghan O’Connell at 25/1 may not be a bad anytime goalscorer.
Sammie Szmodics has been head and shoulders above anyone else in terms of attacking threat for Blackburn all season. He is probably not great value for a goal here though, instead, we can look to the Icelandic international Arnor Sigurdsson.
When he has been on the pitch Sigurdsson has been Rovers’ second biggest goal threat, and he is a much more tempting price here.
Predictions:
⚽ Arnor Sigurdsson to score anytime @ 3.50
⚽ Elliot Lee to score anytime @ 4.50
⚽ James McLean to score anytime @ 5.50
⛳ Corner stats: Set pieces a big threat for Wrexham
There is no team in League Two who have more corners in their away matches than Wrexham. They concede almost 6 per match but earn over 6 for an average over 12 in their matches.
Blackburn’s home games are actually good for corners too. Rovers edge the averages 6.14 earned to 5.14 conceded but with the combination of Wrexham away and Blackburn home stats, corners look to be a strong angle here.
Indeed, Wrexham, if they have done their homework, will have noted Blackburn’s struggles this season on set pieces, both offensively and defensively, and should be targeting dead ball situations where they can.
Also, they will have a whole end of the ground for their supporters. Wrexham have sold out their allocation so the Darwen End of Ewood Park will be full of vociferous North Walians, which will encourage attack and possibly corners at that end.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 10.5 corners @ 1.60
⚽ Over 3.5 Wrexham corners @ 1.45
🟨 Cards stats: Possible red on the cards…
Both teams are just above average in their respective divisions for yellow cards. However, one thing that does stand out is the number of red cards that both have collected. Blackburn are on four reds with Wrexham on five, nine in total with six of them straight reds, so a red card being shown in the match might be worth a look.
From an individual perspective James McClean is the favourite for a card, but he is also probably the most likely. He has averaged over a foul a game since making the move to Wrexham and his last match against Blackburn saw both he and Joe Rankin-Costello get yellow cards in a battle that lasted most of the match. Rankin-Costello could be ready to make his comeback here, and if he is then a repeat of that battle could be likely.
Finally, if Jake Garrett starts the match, he is overpriced for a yellow card. The youngster plays with fire in his belly and his challenges are sometimes over physical for the modern day and the method of officiating.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 3.5 cards @ 1.87
⚽ A red card to be shown @ 5.0
⚽ James McLean to be shown a card @ 2.87
⚽ Joe Rankin-Costello to be shown a card @ 2.87
⚽ Jake Garrett to be shown a card @ 2.87
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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