Bundesliga Final Day Permutations Guide
Ramis Ibrahim
Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.
Bundesliga Final Day Permutations
The 25/26 Bundesliga season comes to a close with there still being races to be settled at the bottom and top of the table.
Bayern Munich have wrapped up the title with ease, but there is still a three-way tussle for just one remaining Champions League spot between Leverkusen, Hoffenheim, and Stuttgart. Stuttgart and Hoffenheim are level on points in this battle (61), while Leverkusen will have to hope that both sides slip up, trailing by three points in the race.
At the bottom of the table, it’s the first time in 63 years that the bottom three sides enter the final game of the season tied on the same points (26).
None of the three contenders can avoid relegation outright, but one of these sides can secure a chance at survival through the relegation playoff - and two of them play each other on the final day. It’s also the first time since the 2014/15 season that no team has been relegated ahead of the final day.
Bundesliga Permutations
Key Fixtures
St Pauli v Wolfsburg
Final day clashes don’t get set up much better than this; both sides are in the relegation zone, and only one can qualify for the relegation playoff, which still isn’t a guarantee of survival. Heidenheim being level on points with the two sides here further complicates the picture, but I’d expect one of these sides to be the side that has a chance of survival through the playoffs.
The game simply cannot end with both sides surviving, so I would expect both sides to go for the victory in a game that should produce goals at both ends. Wolfsburg have only kept two clean sheets in the Bundesliga this season, so any tension that may plague the early proceedings is likely to quickly vanish given how poor both sides are defensively, and what is on the line for both teams.
Frankfurt v Stuttgart
Stuttgart are in control of their own fate on the final day as they aim to clinch a Champions League spot under the guidance of highly rated coach Sebastien Hoeness.
Stuttgart boast the best goal difference of the three sides vying for a spot in Europe’s premier competition next season, though all three points are likely to be required with both Hoffenheim and Leverkusen being in close pursuit of the away side here.
It’s also an important game for Frankfurt, who have recovered from a poor start to the season to sit just one point outside of the European places heading into the final day of the season. They’ll make it an awkward task for Stuttgart, who look to have the most difficult assignment of the three sides battling for a Champions League spot.
Gladbach v Hoffenheim
This is all about Hoffenheim, who must win and hope that they better the result of Stuttgart and Leverkusen to ensure a Champions League spot for next season. They’ve bottled it a bit already as they were pretty clear ahead of their rivals for the Champions League a few weeks ago, but have recovered in recent weeks to pull themselves back into the conversation - avoiding defeat in each of their last five matches.
Gladbach don’t have anything to fight for, which is a big advantage to Hoffenheim, who may need to put a few goals past the home side here, given the five-goal gap that exists between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart in the goal difference, which could be the deciding factor in what has been a tight race for the last few weeks. Hoffenheim are marginal favourites to win, and they have only lost three of their 16 away games in the Bundesliga this season.
Leverkusen v Hamburg
Leverkusen look to have left it a gameweek or so too late to break into the Champions League spot via their Bundesliga league standing. They are three points behind both Hoffenheim and Stuttgart, so are relying on both sides facing difficulty on the final day - but they are crucially the only side of the trio that will be at home on the final day.
The other intriguing aspect here is that Leverkusen are just one goal away from Stuttgart when it comes to goal difference (21-22), and well clear of Hoffenheim. I expect Leverkusen to win quite easily against a Hamburg side that have already secured safety in the German top flight for another season and don’t have anything to play for, potentially applying real pressure to Stuttgart and Hoffenheim in the three-way race for a spot in the Champions League next season.
Key Stats
In the last four campaigns, the goal average on the final day of the Bundesliga has never dropped below 3.00.
The final day of the 23/24 season saw all nine games see over 2.5 goals. The final day of the 24/25 season saw 7/9 games see over 2.5 goals.
The Bundesliga averages more goals per game than any of the other European top five leagues, with this average exceeding further on the final day.
This is the first time in 63 years that the bottom three enter the final day level on points.
This is also the first time that no side has been confirmed as relegated heading into the final day of the season since 2014/15.
Bayern Munich were crowned champions with four games to spare, and have broken the Bundesliga goals record (117 goals scored).
Three of the five highest-scoring matchdays in Bundesliga history occurred on a final matchday.
Conclusion
The title race may be wrapped up, but there’s still plenty for the rest of the league to fight for on the final day of the Bundesliga season.
The main battles yet to be fully decided are the race for a Champions League spot, and the relegation tussle, which is as unique as it ever has been in the Bundesliga heading into the final day of the campaign, especially with two of the bottom three facing off.
Goals are common in the Bundesliga, and even more so on the final day of the season. The markets have factored in this rise, but there’s still some good angles for goals in the key matches if you get creative.
More Betting Tips & Predictions
Browse today's full coverage from Andy's Bet Club, including European Football Betting Tips and Free Football Betting Tips Today.
Andy’s Bet Club users can also use the Bet Builder Stats Tool and Accumulator Stats Tool for further research.
Today's Related Tips
Free Bets & Bookmaker Sign Up Offers
Andy's Bet Club lists the Best Free Bets UK from fully licensed UK bookmakers - verified and updated weekly.
See the full list of bookmaker offers in the UK on Andy's Bet Club - updated daily. Our Offers Hub includes the Best Odds Boosts and Free Betting Games.
Free bets and bookmaker promotions this weekend include Premier League Free Bets, FA Cup Final Free Bets, and Paddy Power's Enhanced FA Cup Final Offer.
Andy Robson surveyed over 2,500 real bettors from his community to get their thoughts on the Best UK Betting Site as well as the Best Betting Sites For Bet Builders, the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, and more. This data is excellent for giving real advice for those looking for a new betting site.
World Cup 2026
With the World Cup approaching, Andy's Bet Club has full coverage - World Cup 2026 Betting Tips & Predictions and a guide to the Best World Cup 2026 Free Bets & Offers from every major bookmaker.
18+ please gamble responsibly.
