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Italy v Belgium
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Kick Off: Thursday 10th October at 19:45
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Competition: UEFA Nations League
Despite their shocking Euro’s performance which saw them scrape through the group stage before getting immediately knocked out by Switzerland, Italy are in a position to pretty much secure Nations League qualification having already beaten Israel and France.
They come up against a weaker Belgium side who could be there for the taking in the absence of three key players, Amadou Onana, Romelu Lukaku, and Kevin De Bruyne.
⭐ Italy v Belgium Best Bets
Andrea Cambiaso seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough season under Thiago Motta and is expected to start ahead of Bellanova. This season, he has committed at least one foul in six of his seven Serie A appearances, averaging 1.31 per 90 minutes. In Juventus’ toughest clash against Napoli, he committed two fouls and could face another real challenge against Belgium.
Jeremy Doku, his likely opponent on Thursday, could pose a significant threat. Doku has averaged over 1.85 fouls won per 90 in each of his six league seasons, peaking at 2.90. Doku has drawn three or more fouls in each of his last four appearances for Belgium, making him a formidable challenge for Cambiaso, who is priced generously to sin twice here.
🔍 Italy v Belgium Players to Watch
🔵 Davide Frattesi
Frattesi has drawn at least one foul in each of his three starts for Inter this season, as well as a fair few off the bench including in matches against Atalanta (11 minutes played) and Genoa (24 minutes played). Overall this season, he’s averaging 1.57 fouls won per 90 for Inter which is pretty in line with the 1.54 he managed last season.
He drew two fouls against Israel last time out in his only full 90 in the Nations League and was effective in the market during the Euros, drawing six fouls in just 184 minutes on the field. With all that in mind, odds of 1.44 look very generous on him to win just one foul on Thursday.
🔴 Lois Openda
With Romelu Lukaku unavailable, Lois Openda will step in, and great value for a shot on target having been priced at 1.44. The Leipzig striker has been in excellent form this season, averaging 2.09 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, ranking fourth in the league.
He’s recorded at least one in all six of his Bundesliga matches as well in both of Leipzig’s Champions League and each of Belgium’s previous Nations League clashes. All in all, Openda is now on an 11-game shot-on-target streak, a run that would normally result in far shorter odds than 1.44.
📂 Italy v Belgium Cheat Sheet
For the very best football betting predictions, plus a huge range of Nations League acca predictions and Nations League tips, look no further than Andy’s Bet Club.
We’ve got this international break covered, with a home nations acca covering England, Scotland and Wales’ matches, as well as a high-odds #OddsOnThat bet for England v Greece.
We also offer Nations League anytime goalscorer tips, both teams to score tips, plus bet builder focused picks such as our card betting tips and player shots on target tips, and fouls betting predictions.
💻 Italy v Belgium Form and Tactics
Having briefly toyed with his customary 4-3-3, it looks like Spaletti has given in to public demand, reverting to an Italian classic, the 3-5-2.
That said, he tends to make small adjustments based on the opposition and it’s likely he’ll set up in something that more closely resembles a 3-5-1-1, replacing the out-and-out forward role with a 10, possibly Pellegrini. He tried this to great effect against France, triumphing 3-0 and limiting Les Bleus to just three shots on target.
We expect Belgium to line up in a 4-2-3-1 with Openda stepping in up front in place of Lukaku who is ‘unavailable’, as Conte’s players often are ahead of international breaks. This could cause them difficulties and puts a lot of pressure on their midfield to facilitate the buildup play given Lukaku’s impact normally extends well beyond the final third.
They could also be vulnerable on the counter-attack and this game could likely be decided according to which set of wingbacks get the better of the other pair.
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🏁 Italy v Belgium Ref Watch
- Referee: Espen Eskås
- This is Eskås’ third major European match of the season.
- Over his career, the Norwegian referee has averaged 3.43 yellow cards per game, which isn’t a huge amount. The Euro 2024 average cards per game rate was 4.52.
- Despite that, his games see an average of 24.81 fouls awarded per game, indicating letting the game flow might not be his top priority.
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
Our how to use a Cheat Sheet guide is the perfect way to get involved with our bet builder stats tool, the best freely available data source for you to use when creating bet builders.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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