Lazio come into this game as slight favourites and that feels about right. The home side have been simply sensational on home soil this season and there is every chance they add another victory to an already impressive record. Sarri’s side have won six of the last seven games in all competitions here, five of which came to nil. Defensively they’ve been solid, conceding just three goals in ten games here.

In stark contrast Napoli have lost their last four games on the road, three of which they failed to score in. Losses against Real Madrid in the Champions League and Juventus were no surprise, but poor performances in this stadium against AS Roma and at Torino last time out were concerning, and expecting them to turn over a Lazio side that are formidable at home is a very difficult objective.

The visitors are a shadow of the team that romped to their first league title since 1990 last season and that was certainly evident early on in the season where Lazio won the reverse fixture 2-1 in Naples. With Victor Osimhen away at AFCON and both Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Giovanni Simeone out through suspension, the visitors may well struggle to break down this stubborn Lazio rearguard here.

This probably won’t be a game blessed with many shots on target, especially from the home side, and a fairly tight affair is in the offing here. Lazio are currently averaging 3.35 on target per game while, interestingly, Napoli give up the same number on their goal. The visitors on the other hand lead the division in this metric having had 103 at a rate of 5.15 per game while the hosts give up just 3.70.

If there is anyone in this Lazio side that is likely to test Pierluigi Gollini in the Napoli goal it’s Gustav Isaksen. The young Danish striker has had limited game time behind the likes of the suspended Ciro Immobile and Mattia Zaccagni, however, he has managed a couple of shots on target in just his four starts and he is fancied to grasp his opportunity in the absence of key personnel for the hosts here.

Napoli are likely to have more shots on target as the statistics indicate, and the most likely candidate comes in the shape of Giacomo Raspadori. The Italian forward has become a firm favourite under Mazzarri and he’s likely to play a leading role in the absence of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Given he’s averaging 1.57 shots on target in Serie A this term, he’s the most likely to trouble this Lazio back four.

There is no doubt that Napoli are the king of the corner count in Italian football, and that is simply a product of the way they set up with plenty of width. Kvaratskhelia is certainly responsible for winning his share by hitting the byline with regularity, but he’s absent for this one, so we could see a surprise in terms of which side wins the most corners during the game, and that’s a valuable angle to focus on.

That’s amplified when you consider just how close these two sides perform in the statistics. Napoli have won a total of 127 corners in the league this campaign with an average of 6.35 per game. However Lazio aren’t far behind them in this metric having won 104 themselves at a rate of 5.20 per game. In a home game they are fancied to do well in, earning 4 or 5 corners represents lots of value.

What’s interesting here is that Napoli haven’t exactly performed well in this area in their last two games, both in the Italian Super Cup. In fact, they won just five corners across those two fixtures and lost the Corner Match Bet in the process. When these sides last played at this venue, Napoli won this market, but only narrowly by 8 to 6, and a reversal of that outcome is expected in this game.