Lazio are understandably hot favourites to get the victory in this game, but at a price of 1.25, the home side are not particularly appealing. There are options, however, to make the price on the hosts a little greater.

It’s worth noting that Lazio recently managed to score three times against struggling Frosinone, which is their only recent experience of playing a team stuck at the wrong end of the table.

Salernitana, meanwhile, have been conceding goals freely. Over the course of their last four matches, they have conceded 10 goals, including seven in their last couple of away matches. Even with the hosts struggling for confidence, there are goals in this encounter for them.

With this in mind, a comfortable home win should be expected.

Similarly, it would be a mistake to go crazy on the number of goals scored in this game. Lazio have only scored three goals four times across all competitions this season (never more).

Lazio have a problem coming into this match. Ciro Immobile, their top scorer across all competitions this season, could miss this match due to a knee problem sustained against Roma. With 10 goals in 2023/24, including the opener against Salernitana when the sides last met, he has twice as many as Mattia Zaccagni, their second-leading marksman and another player set to miss out injured.

Who can Lazio turn to, then? Valentin Castellanos is the likeliest to lead the line. Although he only has four goals to his name this season, he does have some form, having struck a double late on against Frosinone less than a month ago. At 2.0, he offers arguably the best value due to the lack of goals from elsewhere in this team.

Matteo Guendouzi was active the last time Lazio faced Salernitana as he managed two shots, but the Frenchman has only scored once this calendar year, making odds of 4.5 seem too short.

Similarly, Luis Alberto and Felipe Anderson are both better known for their creative attributes. Of this duo, Anderson is perhaps the more threatening. He has managed 2 shots in each of his last four matches, albeit those efforts have often been wayward, and is on offer at 3.0 to net any time.

Salernitana’s players are unsurprisingly longer priced given they have scored under a goal a game as a team on average.

Antonio Candreva is likely to be their greatest threat. With seven goals this season, he also netted against Lazio in the first half of the season and at 6.5 does offer value as a longshot.

Neither of these teams are performing well in the fair play table, with Lazio rock bottom of this particular standing having seen a total of 80 cards. Salernitana do not fare so much better given they have seen 75.

Immobile has picked up eight bookings for the hosts, so taking him out of the equation is likely to reduce their caution count.

Equally, Salernitana’s rate of bookings has gone up in recent weeks. In each of their last three matches, they have seen yellow at least three times. They are 2.05 to continue that run as well as 1.83 to see more cards than their hosts.

Lazio have seen yellow at least three times in three of their last five matches, so the overall card count is likely to be high in this game, especially as referee Luca Zufferli has shown at least 5 cards in 11 of the 15 matches he has officiated this season.

Over 4.5 cards is 2.05. There were eight when these sides met in November. That eventuality is on offer at 9.0.

Nicolo Pierozzi has been booked first in Salernitana’s last two matches and has seen yellow in four of seven appearances for his loan club. The price of 3.2 on him to be cautioned looks like a long one with that in mind.

For the hosts, Matias Vecino has been booked an incredible seven times this season. This is so remarkable because he has only played 769 minutes of Serie A football, typically coming off the bench for 20 minutes. He started against Roma last week and at 4.2 he is a huge price to see yellow if he features from the outset again. Even coming off the bench, there is a decent chance he will be booked.