Vinicius Junior is never too far from controversy, with his latest exploit being a public spat with his manager after being substituted by Xavi Alonso in Real Madrid’s 2-1 win over Barcelona in El Clasico a few weeks ago. Vinicius has since rectified his reputation with the manager and should be in line to start here, having had three shots against Valencia last time out.

Those three attempts took Vini’s shot tally for the season to 30 across his 11 appearances in La Liga this term (3.47 per 90). He’s had at least two shots in eight of those matches (72%). Vinicius boasts a similarly strong shot count in the Champions League this season with eight shots across his three appearances in the competition (3.98 per 90).

This selection is also aided by the fact that Vinicius Jr has an excellent personal record against Liverpool. He scored the winner against them in the Champions League final in 2022 and has also scored a brace on two previous occasions against the Reds. With this in mind, it may also be worth exploring higher shot lines, shots on target and goal contribution markets for Vinicius here.

Liverpool have had a problem finding the right balance in the full-back areas so far this season with Conor Bradley/Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez struggling to live up to the dramatically high levels set by Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold in previous campaigns.

Bradley lined up at right back when these sides faced off in the Champions League last season. He was still pretty junior to the first team at that point and put in a quality performance, with a tackle on Kylian Mbappe earning him particular merit. He committed one foul in that game, contesting 13 duels in total.

Bradley has committed 11 fouls across his eight appearances in the Premier League this season (2.20 per 90), so he has retained that aggressive aspect of his game, which was on display in this fixture last season. 

Bradley’s direct opponent is likely to be Vinicius, who has won 22 fouls across his 11 appearances in La Liga this term (2.54 per 90). Vinicius has also won two fouls across his three appearances in the Champions League this term (0.99 per 90), so he should be the ideal candidate to draw a few fouls from Bradley here. 

Liverpool's clean sheet in their previous match against Aston Villa was just their third of the season in all competitions. While the defensive performance appeared more settled, with the Reds allowing an expected goals of just 0.41 at Anfield, their backline is expected to face another significant challenge in this upcoming fixture.

For Real Madrid, both teams have scored in two of their last five matches across all competitions, specifically against top tier La Liga sides Barcelona and Villarreal. This trend also featured in their opening Champions League matchday against Marseille. Real will be confident in their ability to score, having netted eight goals in their three Champions League matches so far.

Liverpool's own attacking threat remains evident, with the team scoring eight goals in their last five outings. The victory over Aston Villa should provide a timely confidence boost as they enter a crucial part of their season, which includes a forthcoming match against Manchester City.

Giorgi Mamardashvili was forced into making three saves against Aston Villa last time out as Liverpool ended their barren run and claimed a 2-0 win over Unai Emery’s side at Anfield. He’s been tested regularly while filling in for Alisson, who remains sidelined with an injury he picked up in this competition against Galatasaray.

Mamardashvilli has been forced into making 14 saves across his four appearances in the Premier League this season (3.50 per 90).

Real Madrid have drawn 28 saves from the opposition keeper across their three games in the Champions League this season (9.3 per game). This is a relentless record which has seen them test the keeper on at least seven occasions in each encounter.

Bellingham has returned to form in fantastic style with a goal contribution in each of his last three appearances across all competitions. This run includes a goal against Juventus in the Champions League as well as a goal and an assist in the El Clasico, with Bellingham scoring what proved to be the winner in that game.

I think Bellingham is best when deployed in the final third. The best version of Bellingham we’ve seen was when Carlo Ancelotti played him through the middle as a makeshift striker, leading to Bellingham scoring 23 goals across 42 appearances in the 23/24 season. 

Xabi Alonso seems willing to allow Bellingham to push on into the final third, without disrupting the rhythm of Mbappe, who has also been sensational so far this term.

Bellingham has registered six goal contributions across his 15 appearances in all competitions for Real Madrid this season and can act as the point of difference again here, as he has done in recent high profile matches against Juventus and Barcelona. He appears to have taken criticism from England boss Thomas Tuchel and others personally, which is motivating him to perform at an even higher level.

Tchouameni has received three yellow cards across his last five appearances in all competitions for Real Madrid. A lot of the defensive responsibilities fall solely on the Frenchman, with Los Blancos going with quite a bold approach under Xabi Alonso, which can leave Tchouameni exposed at times and force the 25-year-old to give away cheap or tactical fouls.

He’s received one caution in the Champions League so far this term, which was sustained against Marseille on matchday one. He’s picked up a further four yellow cards in La Liga across 11 appearances - more than any other Real Madrid player so far this season. 

He’s committed nine fouls across those matches (0.93 per 90), which further demonstrates how Tchouameni is having to commit risky fouls to ensure that Real Madrid don’t concede high-quality chances. The fact that his foul average is quite modest would suggest that he shouldn’t have to commit too many fouls to catch the eye of the referee in this high-profile encounter.

Mbappe has had four or more shots on target in all three of his Champions League matches this season. Only Erling Haaland can really rival this shot volume across Europe, and I think Mbappe will get real joy against a Liverpool backline which continues to falter and has only kept three clean sheets across 15 matches in all competitions.

Mbappe has had 25 shots on target across his 11 appearances in La Liga this season (2.35 per 90). This is a tad below the line we require here, but Mbappe’s strength in this metric in the Champions League still gives him a really good chance of finding the target on a few occasions. No side has had more shots on target than Real Madrid in the Champions League this season (12.3 per game).

There will be a part of Mbappe that is targeting revenge in this encounter with the Frenchman missing a penalty when the sides met in the Champions League last season. Real Madrid come into this clash in much better shape than they did last year, and Mbappe’s shots on target count should benefit as a result.