With Turkey expected to beat league whipping boys Montenegro, Wales v Iceland is essentially a battle for second place in Nations League B Group 4.

Wales go into the match two points behind leaders Turkey and will need Montenegro to take points off The Turks and, if a draw, to beat Iceland by a wide margin to turn around a 3 goal difference deficit. They carry the same points margin advantage over Iceland, who in turn know that only a victory is enough to overtake Wales into 2nd place.

Craig Bellamy is still unbeaten since taking charge of Wales with two wins and three draws to his name. The two victories have come against pointless Montenegro. While Bellamy’s Wales results are more than commendable, looking beneath the bonnet shows a tendency for open matches that aren’t as low margin as three draws suggest.

In the five Nations League matches Wales’ shots conceded numbers read 5-22-20-5-25. The xGA in these fixtures read 0.79-2.58-1.17-0.26-3.02.

Their 3 goals conceded in 5 matches makes good reading but doesn’t do justice to how open Wales find themselves at times.

Iceland are more than capable of scoring here. They average 1.8 goals per game in the Nations League and in Orri Oskarsson they have a prodigious striking talent.

Oskarsson has scored three goals in five Nations League matches, including his last two matches. All three of his goals have opened the scoring in those matches. He proved a total to menace to Montenegro in the first match of the November internationals, ending the game with a goal from four shots at a total xG of 0.85.

The matchup is fascinating and could be played out with either team in the ascendency, but Iceland are a threat even if it comes in transitions – Oskarsson can trouble the scoreboard again.

Whilst everything is to play for in Wales v Iceland, Turkey travel to Montenegro knowing that a win secures their place at the top of the table.

Turkey did everything but score in Saturday’s 0-0 draw with Wales – taking 25 shots for an xG of 3.02. The failure to make their dominance pay means they have to got into Tuesday’s fixture on the front foot.

Turkey have threat from multiple areas but it’s worth taking a chance here on a centre-back set piece threat.

2 of Turkey’s 25 efforts against the Welsh came from Merih Demiral. Demiral is plying his trade in Saudi Arabia for Al Ahli having previously been one of the best defenders in Serie A, for Sassuolo, Juventus and Atalanta.

He scored once this season for Al Ahli and also offered a threat in Turkey’s reverse match against Montenegro, where he had two efforts at goal for 0.32xG.

Turkey’s set piece threat is aided by the elite level delivery of Hakan Calhanoglu – Demiral could be the beneficiary here at a very attractive price.