In this article…
Newcastle v Man City
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Kick Off: Saturday 28th September at 12:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
Man City continue their title defence after a fascinating 2-2 draw with Arsenal by heading up to the North East to take on Newcastle.
The Magpies have not been a happy camp of late, losing 3-1 to Fulham last week, and a visit from the champions will prove a real test.
Last season’s last-gasp 3-2 win for City at St James’ Park was one of the games of the season, and we’re hoping for more fireworks here.
Newcastle v Man City Best Bets
Both teams to score looks a strong bet at 1.50, based on the form and stats of both sides this season, Man City have seen both teams score in four of their five games, with Ipswich, West Ham, and Brentford all finding the net against them. City’s defensive solidity has been undermined, especially without Rodri, who is out long-term.
Rodri’s absence significantly affects City’s performance; while they have won 76% of games with him, without him last season, they won just 56%, losing four of the nine games. His unbeaten run of 51 league games since February 2023 illustrates his importance. City still pose a huge attacking threat, averaging 1.62 xG and 7.20 shots on target per game, ensuring they remain a danger in front of goal.
Newcastle are equally prone to both scoring and conceding. They have seen both teams score in four of their five games this season, with newly promoted Southampton the only side not to find the net. At St. James’ Park, Newcastle have been consistently potent, scoring in 35 of their last 40 games, averaging 2.2 goals per 90 minutes. Matches at their home ground average 3.13 goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 14 of their last 21 games. Both teams have scored in nine of the last 12 matches at St. James’ Park.
Offensively, Newcastle have players like Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon, and Alexander Isak who can hurt most defences on their day. The Toon Army have scored seven goals this season coming from an xG of 5.34. However, their defence has been shaky, conceding six goals from 6.93 xGA and allowing 86 shots already this season. With City’s firepower and Newcastle’s ability to score at home, both teams scoring seems very likely in this fixture.
Anthony Gordon to be fouled 2+ times at 1.91 is our second recommendation here. Gordon has already been fouled 17 times this season, averaging at least two fouls in each of his five games, and three or more in three of those fixtures. His ability to drive the ball forward makes him a focal point for opponents trying to disrupt Newcastle’s rhythm, especially in transition.
Last season, Gordon’s pace resulted in him being fouled numerous times, particularly at St James’ Park, where he was fouled 36 times in 18 starts, averaging 2.0 per game or one every 41 minutes he was on the pitch. Against Man City last season, he was fouled twice in one meeting and once in the other, showing that even if he does not see much of the ball, City will find it difficult to contain him without conceding fouls.
With Newcastle likely to adopt a counter-attacking strategy, Gordon’s role in getting on the ball into City’s half will be crucial. His recent positioning, which has seen him drift centrally, could mean he ends up facing City’s centre-backs instead of the pace of Kyle Walker, increasing the likelihood of being fouled.
📂 Newcastle v Man City Cheat Sheet
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📊 Newcastle Form and Stats
Newcastle United have had a promising start to the season, winning three, drawing one, and losing one of their first five matches. However, their underlying numbers suggest they have been fortunate with these results. Despite sitting in sixth place in the league standings, Newcastle are 14th on xPTS (expected points) and 10th for non-penalty xG ratio, indicating that their performances have not fully justified their results.
In fact, Newcastle have lost the xG battle in four out of their five games, averaging just 0.95 xG while conceding 1.16 xGA. Defensively, they have shown vulnerability, conceding the 4th highest number of shots on target and the 3rd highest total shots in the league. Only Brentford have allowed more touches in their penalty area than Newcastle, highlighting the team’s struggles to restrict opposition pressure.
They have been strong at St James’ Park, winning 14 and drawing four of their last 21 home games. They have also scored in all of these 21 home fixtures. Defeats have come to Man City, Liverpool and surprisingly Nott’m Forest. Over these 21 games, there has been an average of 3.57 goals with both teams scoring in 12, including nine of the last 12.
📊 Man City Form and Stats
Manchester City have been in remarkable form, having not lost a Premier League game since December 2023. Since then, they have gone 28 matches unbeaten, winning 23 and drawing 5, scoring 73 goals and conceding just 22.
This incredible run includes an average of 2.61 goals per game, underlining their attacking dominance. A 2-2 draw on Sunday ended their 13-game winning streak, but their away form remains impressive. City are unbeaten on the road, with 12 wins and one draw, the latter coming in a tight contest at Anfield. They have conceded just one goal in their last six away matches, with an xGA of 0.64.
However, City’s defence has been slightly less sturdy this season, managing only one clean sheet in five games. Interestingly, despite limiting Chelsea to 1.06 xGA in their opener, the most any side has generated against them this season, it remains their only clean sheet so far.
Offensively, City have been relentless, leading the Premier League metrics in shots on target, 7.20 per game and total shots, 19.80 per game, while also averaging 48 touches in the opposition’s box per 90 minutes, further highlighting their ability to dominate games.
⚔️ Newcastle v Man City Head-to-Head
Man City hold a historical edge over Newcastle in the Premier League, with Newcastle managing just one win, three draws, and 16 losses. In the last eight meetings, City have dominated, scoring 24 goals, and conceding eight, averaging 2.90 goals per game while allowing only 0.80. City have scored at least two goals in seven of these matches.
One of the most memorable recent encounters was last season’s 3-2 win for City at St. James’ Park, where they came from 2-1 down, netting the decisive goal in the 91st minute. Discipline has also been a feature, with an average of 4.5 cards per game in these meetings. Newcastle collected at least two cards in six of the last eight, and over 2.5 match cards have been recorded in all eight games. The corner count has remained low, averaging 9.88 per match over these encounters.
Gvardiol has committed at least one foul in his last three games against Newcastle, whilst Grealish has been fouled 13 times in his four appearances against Newcastle.
Dan Burn has made at least two tackles in four of his last five games against City, making 10 in total and Joelinton has made 21 fouls in his last nine fixtures against the Citizens, making at least two in eight.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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