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West Ham v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips, 14/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

West Ham v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips, 14/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Monday 10 March, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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It's been a disappointing start in the Nuno Espirito Santo era for West Ham, as he has taken just one point from his first four league matches. As it stands, the Hammers have won just one of their opening nine league games, sitting 19th in the standings with the leagues’ worst defensive record.

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West Ham v Newcastle Best Bet Builder Bets
  • West Ham v Newcastle
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 3.99

Newcastle to Win

West Ham have looked turgid in recent weeks, and performances have shown no signs of picking up under their new manager. In fact, with 20 goals conceded after just nine Premier League matches, the Hammers have leaked the most goals in the division. They rank 2nd-bottom in the league for total xGA, with only Burnley conceding more, while they have fared equally as poorly at the other end of the field.

West Ham have scored just two goals in their four matches under Nuno Espirito Santo so far, who hasn’t quite yet been able to figure out an optimal playing style. In fact, the Hammers’ goalscoring tally of seven is the second-lowest in the English top flight, and a xG total of 7.6 highlights just how much they have struggled in the final third. Based on that, Newcastle will be hopeful of securing victory.

West Ham GK to Make 2+ Saves

Confidence in the Newcastle camp should be higher than ever, as they come into this game following three successive wins. They were able to secure progression to the EFL Cup quarter-finals by beating Tottenham on Wednesday night, as Eddie Howe looks to mount a strong title defence.

That was even despite Newcastle making several changes from the weekend league game against Fulham - the Magpies have real depth this season and are able to compete on multiple fronts.

Bruno Guimaraes was the hero at the weekend, as his 90th-minute strike sent the home crowd into jubilation, securing a massive three points for Newcastle. Despite the narrow victory, the hosts racked up 18 shots and four big chances worth 2.14xG, so it was a deserved win. Bernd Leno was a standout performer for the visitors, as he racked up a total of five saves.

Jarrod Bowen to have 1+ Shots on Target

While West Ham have struggled going forward this season, Jarrod Bowen has remained a bright spark and has continued to put in consistent performances. The English international has three goals to his name after nine league starts, and has provided one assist. He bagged 13 league goals last season, and 16 in the campaign before that.

Bowen is averaging 2.0 shots per 90 this season, which in itself is nothing to write home about, but he has hit the target with 50% of his efforts, and landed this selection in nine out of 10 games in total. In fact, the only game he failed was against Arsenal at the Emirates - arguably the toughest defensive matchup in the league this season. In that game, the Hammers managed just four attempts as a team.

Crysencio Summerville to Commit 1+ Fouls

Crysencio Summerville made just seven Premier League starts for West Ham last season, during which he had an average of 1.0 fouls committed per 90, but he has been a lot more involved this term, and has seen a notable increase in infringements.

With his side really struggling, Summerville’s frustration has been apparent in recent weeks. He has been booked in each of his last three straight games, during which he has racked up a total of six fouls. In fact, Summerville has landed this selection in four out of six starts this season, registering multiple infringements in all of those games.

He was particularly animated in West Ham’s 2-0 loss against Brentford, as his side often found themselves exposed in midfield. Because of that, Summerville had to track back a lot more than he would have wanted, and he was booked for a cynical foul.

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West Ham v Newcastle Best Longshot Bets
  • West Ham v Newcastle
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
3 Selections @ 14.83

Dan Burn to be Shown a Card

Summerville has typically operated on the left-wing this season, but he swapped with Jarrod Bowen last weekend and played on the opposite flank. Being right-footed, he was more inclined to look to take on his opposing defender, as opposed to cutting inside to take a shot.

Summerville is averaging 2.42 fouls drawn per 90 this season for West Ham, and if he is to start on the same wing, will be up against 6’5 Dan Burn for Newcastle. Even if Bowen reverts to his more natural position, the Englishman is drawing an average of 1.7 fouls per 90, so either is a great matchup to target Burn here.

The big man has racked up a total of 13 fouls in his seven starts since being shifted out into a fullback role, during which he has been carded twice. Against a tricky winger who will look to take him on, Burn could struggle.

Jacob Murphy to have 1+ Shots on Target

Jacob Murphy scored his first goal of the season against Fulham last weekend, helping his side secure their third victory of the season. The winger has featured sporadically under Eddie Howe this term, and was left out of the starting 11 in midweek, which potentially suggests he is in line for a re-call this weekend.

Murphy’s minutes have been limited so far, but he has looked sharp when he has played. The 30-year-old is averaging 4.07 shots per 90 in all competitions this season, the highest of any Newcastle player, and has hit the target in five out of six starts. The only game he failed, like Bowen, was against Arsenal.

If Murphy does start, he is unlikely to play the full 90, but his replacement tends to be Harvey Barnes, who is averaging 2.93 shots per 90 this term. Taking advantage of the Super Sub feature, this price looks inflated.

Nick Woltemade to Score Anytime

Nick Woltemade accounted for just one shot out of Newcastle’s 10 in midweek against Tottenham, but that was all he needed, as he nodded in from close range. That was the Germans’ sixth goal in Newcastle colours since arriving for £70 million in the summer, underlining what has been a bright start to life in England.

He has already scored in some tough matchups, including against Arsenal, Brighton and Tottenham, so he will be looking forward to facing this West Ham side who have the worst defensive record in the Premier League so far.

Woltemade already has a large responsibility in this Newcastle side, and will be the designated penalty taker. The 6’5 centre forward bagged 17 goals in all competitions for Stuttgart last season, so clearly has an eye for goal, and he will hope to score in his third successive away match.

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📂 West Ham v Newcastle Cheat Sheet

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📈 West Ham v Newcastle Form & Tactics

Newcastle’s record of three wins, three draws and three losses tells the story for them this season - they have really lacked consistency. All three of those draws have come on their travels, as Eddie Howe has generally preferred a passive approach. In fact, Newcastle’s first three away games this season all ended in a 0-0 scoreline. They were a bit more expansive against Brighton at the Amex last time out, but that approach failed to pay dividends, as they lost 2-1.

Still, Newcastle come into this game having won their last three matches in all competitions, all at St James’ Park, so they have every reason to be front-footed and progressive against a struggling West Ham side.

Nuno Espirito Santo started with a positive draw against Everton, before losing 2-0 against Arsenal at the Emirates. In their next game against Brentford, West Ham were picked apart - the Hammers looked so open in midfield, and the 2-0 scoreline in favour of the Bees really didn’t do them much justice. They racked up 22 shots and five big chances worth 2.37xG, while West Ham mustered up just seven shots worth 0.35xG.

It was a similar story against Leeds last time out - the hosts took an early two-goal lead at Elland Road, and West Ham struggled to fashion any meaningful chances against the newly-promoted side.


📔 West Ham v Newcastle Formation & Team News

Eddie Howe opted for a rotated midweek lineup against Spurs, making eight changes from their weekend 11. After suffering a nasty head injury against Fulham, Sven Botman was listed on the bench, so will likely come back into the starting lineup against West Ham.

Nick Woltemade kept his spot up top, and he was able to extend his impressive form by getting on the scoresheet once again - Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy should support him on the flanks against the Hammers.

West Ham had no midweek fixture to contend with, but he will have to manage without Konstantinos Mavropanos and Niclas Fullkrug, while Oliver Scarles dislocated his shoulder at the weekend, so will miss out here.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka was deployed in a deeper centre-back role last weekend, and he could remain in that position with Kyle Walker-Peters coming in at wingback. Matheus Fernandes looked bright off the bench against Leeds, scoring his first goal as a West Ham player, and he will hope to break into the starting eleven.


📊 West Ham v Newcastle Key Stats

  • West Ham have failed to win any of their last six Premier League games.

  • The Hammers have conceded 2+ Goals in eight of their last 10 matches in all competitions.

  • Newcastle have kept a Clean Sheet in four of their last five away matches in all competitions.

  • Newcastle have picked up 1+ Card in each of their last eight away games.


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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