The Eagles have won four on the bounce and eight of their 10 games so far this season. The only exceptions being a shaky two-week spell at the start of October that saw them lose to the Giants and Broncos. The offensive line hasn’t been as strong this year but this is still a unit that rank 11th in offensive DVOA, only two spots behind the Cowboys, but with their defense ranked eighth in DVOA, compared with Dallas who are second from bottom.

Philadelphia have had the best of the Cowboys in their past three meetings and in five of their previous seven. They’re the better football team and should have enough to win here. While I’m confident in them winning, I’m not so sure on the spread, so we’ll just bet the moneyline.

Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts rushed for 19 touchdowns last season, a staggering number. Both him and running back Saquon Barkley’s numbers are down this year, largely down to the difference in the offensive line mentioned above. That said, Hurts has still scored six rushing touchdowns this season and is fresh from having 10 carries, his second highest amount of the season, against the Lions last week.

We have to back Hurts to find the endzone. He’s developed a real habit of scoring touchdowns against the Cowboys. He scored twice when these teams met in Week One and twice in his only game against them last season.

Right now there’s an argument that George Pickens is the best WR2 in the league. It’s going to be interesting to see if he’ll chase the money in the offseason or stay in Dallas, on an offense with a history of supporting multiple pass catchers. The Eagles defense rank middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed per game, with an average of 212.7. 

With Dak Prescott questionable there are some concerns but it’s expected that the Cowboys’ QB will suit up on Sunday, so we are pushing in the chips on Pickens. He’s averaged 90.8 receiving yards per game this season and has surpassed this line of 66.5 in eight of 10 games, including his past five. Even with CeeDee Lamb returning there’s still been a lot of volume for Pickens, with 37 targets in the four games they’ve played together since then.

The total points line for this game stands at 47.5 but I’m going to be extra cautious here and take the Over on an alternate line of 39.5. The Cowboys are the league’s second highest scoring offense with an average of 29.6 points per game, with the Eagles average lower, but still reasonable at 23.4.

Crucially the Over has been a winner in six of the Cowboys previous seven games, as well as five of the Eagles’ past eight. With both teams trending Overs, I’m very confident on a high scoring game, and us covering this low total, with their last meeting in Week One having a total of 44 points.