What really crystallises the change for Sheffield United in my mind is not necessarily looking at the results, but instead looking at the change in the xG battles in recent weeks.

The Blades, despite having one of the better, deeper squads in the league, had lost the xG battle in six of their opening eight matches, mostly by quite a clear margin as well. Indeed, the averages over the first eight fixtures showed that United were averaging 1 xG per match, but conceding 1.46 xG, which is clearly nowhere near good enough for a team carrying parachute payments and aspiring to promotion.

The last three fixtures have seen a complete turnaround from that. They may have lost away at Hull, but the xG battle was 0.64 v 2.91 in Blades’ favour, it was 2.12 v 1.08 at home to Watford, and then 0.98 v 1.21 in Sheffield United’s favour at Blackburn on Tuesday. The second half performance from United at Blackburn on Tuesday should give them a lot of confidence back in the same neck of the woods on Friday night.

Preston have been a go-to for this column at the beginning of the season as I felt that they were being underpriced due to their pre-season expectations. I still believe that they are a better side than they were priced at in pre-season, but the specific conditions in this match probably don’t suit them. Sheffield United, under Chris Wilder, will be a bit smarter in terms of not giving Preston what they want, which is space on the counter-attack.

They come into this off back-to-back defeats, and they have lost that bit of momentum. I think the draw is a big runner here, so it is important to get that onside, but Sheffield United found that bit of quality for the first time on Tuesday night, and I expect that to give them the confidence to side with them for the win part here.

The Blades have continued a remarkable corners record that I highlighted in this column a couple of matches ago; they have yet to dip below five corners won in a Championship match this season, home or away.

It is noticeable as well that Mark McGuinness, who had only had one shot in total in the Championship under Ruben Selles, has had five shots in his last two matches. His price for a shot makes him no value whatsoever to be put up as a tip, as a result, but it is illustrative of the difference between Wilder and Selles in the way that they have used their corners.

United won five corners at Blackburn on Tuesday, following on from seven won at home to Watford last weekend. That makes it 11 from 11 over 4.5 corners for the Blades. We are able to take some insurance by backing the line under that here.

Preston have conceded 4.85 corners per game this season, but actually average a slightly higher concession rate at home of five per match. They have conceded over this line in six of seven home matches so far in the Championship.

The Preston central defender is a surprisingly consistent foil for fouls. Whatever it is about Storey that opponents don’t seem to like is a mystery, but we aren’t here to necessarily solve that puzzle; what we are interested in is data in this regard.

A foul on Jordan Storey has occurred at least once in Storey’s last seven starts in the Championship. He is averaging 0.97 fouls against him this season, but it is the regularity and consistency of the offences that make this a good price as a betting opportunity.

Something else that further backs up this bet is that Tyrese Campbell, who is likely to return up front, has committed two fouls in his last two starts and is averaging 1.77 fouls per 90.

I would also like to point out that Sheffield United are a much more foul-heavy team than Preston. Whilst Preston are averaging nine fouls a match, Sheffield United are up at 11, so they seem a better bet for fouls than Paul Heckingbottom’s side.

As many people predicted, Callum O’Hare has had a new lease of life now that Wilder has returned to the dugout. His shot output has increased, but also his work off the ball looks that much sharper.

Something that tends to go hand-in-hand with that increase in busyness is the rate of fouls that O’Hare commits. He has committed six fouls in his last three matches, including three in the Blackburn match on Tuesday.

This has lifted his average fouls per 90 to 1.19 this season, but it is his consistency across the season that is also of interest. He has committed at least one foul in ten of his twelve starts, and whilst expecting him to continue to get multiple fouls a match might be a step too far, he has clearly shown that getting at least one foul a match is a consistent feature of his game.