PSV v Ajax Quick Tip & Preview

Oliver Shaw
Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.
Last season's Eredivisie title winners host last season's runner-up in Eindhoven, with both sides looking to catch up with early-season pace-setters Feyenoord.
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- PSV v Ajax
- Eredivisie
- 13:30
With both sides having suffered disappointing midweek Champions League defeats, it’ll be interesting to see who bounces back quicker in this heated battle of wills.
PSV have conceded 10 goals across their last four matches.
Despite their defensive issues, PSV have netted 17 league goals from just 7.9 xG - the biggest overperformance in the Eredivisie.
Both teams have scored in nine of the last 11 H2Hs.
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🔴 PSV Rely on Firepower to Paper Over Cracks
Very few expected PSV to put out quite as poor a midweek display as they did, against Union St Gilloise in Eindhoven. To be frank, they were trounced all over the pitch (losing 3-1), conceding 3.34 xGA from 18 shots - eight of which found the target.
That said, it could be argued that the writing has been on the wall defensively, with PSV having now conceded 10 goals across their last four games, including at least two in each one. Of the 18 teams in the Eredivisie, only eight have conceded more xGA than the reigning champions.
That said, Peter Bosz’s men are typically able to compensate with their devastating attack. On paper, the 17 league goals they’ve netted could indicate just that; however, question marks remain as to whether this record is sustainable, given it represents a 9.1 xG overperformance - over double that of any other outfit in the league.
⚪ Ajax Undone by Inter Set Pieces
Ajax’s 2-0 defeat against Inter Milan was also less than ideal, although they put in a very respectable performance against the two-time recent Champions League finalists.
Ajax had 56% of possession, and restricted their opponents to just 1.24 xG, of which only 0.66 came from open play. Once again, however, they found themselves undone by set pieces, conceding both goals from nicely-worked corner routines which Marcus Thuram finished off.
They began brightly, and for a while it looked like a result was well within their reach, but Ajax seemingly lost hope as the game went on and were ultimately reduced to scraps in the second half.
Domestically speaking, having recorded three wins and two draws in the league, Ajax will be keen to maintain their unbeaten record, which they’ve been excellent value for.
📊 PSV v Ajax H2H
Typically, viewers are in for a treat when these sides meet, and this has been no different in recent times.
Both teams have scored in nine of the previous 11 showings, and matches featuring 5+ goals have not been uncommon.
Last season, Ajax did the double over their fierce rivals, edging a 3-2 home win and a 2-0 away victory, against the run of play on both occasions. PSV racked up 38 shots, including 12 on target across those games; meanwhile, Ajax totalled 23 and seven, respectively. The possession stats and xG scorelines also reflected this dominance, which PSV failed to translate into points.
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