In this article…
Bournemouth v Newcastle
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Kick Off: Saturday 11th November at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Bournemouth host Newcastle in the last Premier League game on Saturday, for what is The Cherries’ third difficult fixture in a row. Last week Bournemouth were beaten 6-1 by Man City, in a fixture that saw Jeremy Doku net four assists and score a goal. The week before that they lost 2-1 to Liverpool.
Newcastle come into this game off the back of a 2-0 defeat to Dortmund mid-week. However, last weekend they won 1-0 against Arsenal, which saw them solidify themselves in 6th place on the table.
Both Premier League games the two played against each other last season finished as 1-1 draws but were full of action. There were at least 26 shots, 10 shots on target, and 9 corners in each game. Newcastle also saw the majority share of possession in both; 67% and 72% respectively. This opens up lots of potential betting angles.
This article covers these angles, providing stats from the Bournemouth v Newcastle Cheat Sheet. If you fancy any of the picks mentioned, why not add them into your Bournemouth v Newcastle bet builder?
Bournemouth v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
The research in this piece has been pulled together using the Bournemouth v Newcastle Cheat Sheet. There’s a wide range of stats to choose from, be it player passes or team corners. There are also referee statistics in the middle of the sheet too.
You’re encouraged to use the Cheat Sheet in any way that you want. However, a brief example could be to match up the highest fouls committed by Bournemouth to the highest fouls drawn for Newcastle.
You can find Bournemouth v Newcastle stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
⚽ Goals stats: The Cherries have been leaking goals
Bournemouth have totalled 25.12 expected goals conceded per match, the third highest of any Premier League side. Only newly promoted Luton and Sheffield rank above them. Bournemouth have actually conceded the second most goals (27) in the league.
Breaking it down further, Bournemouth’s opponents have been taking an average of 6.00 shots on target per game, exploiting The Cherries’ weak defence wherever possible.
Given Newcastle have been taking 5.36 shots on target per game so far this Premier League campaign, it can be expected that Bournemouth will have a lot to deal with defensively. Therefore, it is surprising to see that the odds of Newcastle to win appear so generous at 1.67. There is further value to be found in the handicap markets, especially if you expect Bournemouth to struggle as they did last week.
Predictions:
⚽ Newcastle to win @ 1.67
⚽ Newcastle (-1 handicap) @ 2.80
🟨 Card stats: Howe many cards?!
Eddie Howe’s men have been seeing plenty of yellow, and red, cards issued in their Premier League games thus far. Newcastle have been averaging 2.91 cards received per match. Just last weekend they picked up five yellows against The Gunners.
The Magpies have seen their opponents pick up just as many cards, also averaging 2.91 per game. This combines for 5.82 average total match cards per game. The over 2.5 match cards market has landed in 100% of Newcastle’s Premier League games this season; the over 3.5 market in 91%; and the over 4.5 in 73%.
If you are not considering adding cards into your bet builder, you should.
Predictions:
🟨 Over 2.5 match cards @ 1.20
🟨 Over 3.5 match cards @ 1.53
🟨 Over 4.5 match cards @ 2.30
🎯 Shooting stats: Solanke and Billing have history & Gordon’s on fire
Dominic Solanke is once again Bournemouth’s top goal scorer, finding the back of the net four times already. He has registered at least one shot on target in 7/11 games this season, combining for an average of 0.9 shots on target.
In the two games he played against Newcastle last season, he hit the target at least once, with his most recent game against them seeing him land three shots on target.
Phillip Billing presents a great opportunity for a value bet. He often plays a central midfield role, yet has accumulated the second-highest expected goals for Bournemouth this season. Billing has been averaging 1.24 shots (0.28 on target), scoring only one goal so far. But it was a stunner from over 40 yards out…
Last season Billing earned a man-of-the-match performance when playing away against Newcastle, scoring a close-range goal to help his team earn a point. He is priced at a tempting 4/1 to do the same on Saturday.
Anthony Gordon has been fantastic at left-wing for Newcastle this season, already having six goal contributions (Newcastle’s second-highest). This has seen him take an average of 1.02 shots on target and 2.28 shots per match. The last time Newcastle faced Bournemouth, Gordon managed two shots despite coming off the bench.
Bournemouth have been defensively weak on their right-hand side, with their opponents profiting from attacking down the left in all of their last five games. Last time out, their opponent’s left winger was Doku (1G 4A).
Gordon has taken at least two shots and one shot on target in four of his last five matches in the Premier League, netting a high average expected goals of 0.39. This ranks him higher than the likes of Bukayo Saka and Bruno Fernandes.
Predictions:
🎯 Dominic Solanke to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.73
🎯 Phillip Billing to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.60
⚽ Dominic Solanke to score anytime @ 3.50
🛑 Fouls stats: Kerkez and Joelinton the best options
Milos Kerkez has been averaging 1.24 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, playing as a left-back for The Cherries. This means he is set to face Newcastle’s right-hand side, presenting him with two challenges for Saturday. Miguel Almiron is set to start in right-wing for The Magpies. He has a career average of 1.60 fouls per game, 1.02 in the Premier League this season so far.
Joelinton or Sean Longstaff are likely to be playing as a right-sided midfielder against Bournemouth on Saturday. They both have high career average fouls won: Joelinton (1.55), Longstaff (1.14). Further, both players often like to push up the pitch, meaning they are more likely to draw a foul against Kerkez.
Kerkez is also a strong candidate to pick up a booking, especially since the referee, Chris Kavanagh, has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per game in the Premier League this season.
Not only good at drawing fouls, Joelinton has been averaging 2.13 fouls committed per game this Premier League campaign. The Newcastle midfielder has committed two fouls in all of his last three appearances. In fact, he has committed a foul in all but one of his Premier League starts this season.
Last season in the Premier League Joelinton committed two fouls in both games he played against Bournemouth, picking himself up a booking in each.
Given his current high fouling streak, and the recently card-happy referee, it would not be a surprise if Joelinton picks up a card against The Cherries.
Predictions:
🛑 Milos Kerkez to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.36
🛑 Milos Kerkez to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.70
🟨 Milos Kerkez to be shown a card @ 4.00
🛑 Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.44
🟨 Joelinton to be shown a card @ 3.75
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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