Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund travel to Hoffenheim on Saturday afternoon as they look to maintain their 100 percent record in 2023. But after last weekend’s 4-1 win against Hertha Berlin, they’ll be without Karim Adeyemi for the next three weeks after he suffered a hamstring injury. With four goals and two assists in his last six games, Adeyemi has improved significantly from his early season form. Edin Terzic has a big task to replace the German, but as alluded to in his pre-match press conference, has plenty of ideas and options as BVB look to climb above Bayern Munich, who play Sunday.
Terzic won’t deviate from his 4-2-3-1 and with Youssoufa Moukoko also out for the next six weeks, Borussia Dortmund’s squad is thinning. One option is to start Jamie Bynoe-Gittens. The Englishman scored Borussia Dortmund’s second against Werder Bremen and assisted Julian Brandt against Hertha Berlin last weekend. He’ll likely lineup alongside Marco Reus and Julian Brandt, behind Sebastien Haller. Another option is Donyell Malen, who could feature as the left forward in place of Adeyemi or provide competition for Haller in a central position.
With Gregor Kobel in goal, Niklas Sule and Nico Schlotterbeck in central-defence, don’t expect too much to change from a defensive standpoint. To end 2022, Dortmund conceded six in two games, and three in their opening game of 2023 but since then, have conceded just four goals in seven games, and have two clean sheets in their last three across all competitions.
Don’t expect Hoffenheim to put up too much of a fight, either. Winless in the Bundesliga since October 14, Hoffenheim are sitting level with Bochum, who are occupying the relegation playoff. Pellegrino Matarazzo was appointed to steady the ship and secure Bundesliga football for next season, but has successive defeats to start his tenure, conceding four goals.
Even without Adeyemi and Moukoko, Borussia Dortmund have plenty of firepower in the final third and should be winning this with ease. Julian Brandt is in the form of his life, Marco Reus is fit and scoring again, whilst Haller offers a new dynamic in attack. Dortmund to win this one.
RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig (5th) host Eintracht Frankfurt this weekend with both teams still in the fight for the Bundesliga title. With both teams playing Champions League football in midweek, this will perhaps be a survival of the fittest but with Eintracht (6th) just five points behind leaders Bayern Munich, who play Union Berlin on Sunday, it’s still all to play for in Germany.
Don’t expect Marco Rose to deviate too much from his 4-2-3-1 despite Eintracht Frankfurt operating in a 3-4-3. Christopher Nkunku is slowly working his way back to full fitness and featured off the bench against Wolfsburg and Manchester City, the Frenchman looks sharp. Operating on the right-flank, Dominik Szoboszlai is enjoying his best season to date with four goals and eight assists in 10 Bundesliga games – the Hungarian is flourishing under Rose.
Lukas Klostermann offered RB Leipzig very little against Manchester City on Wednesday night and the introduction of Benjamin Henrichs added much more balance to the squad, that’s one change that Rose could make heading into Saturday’s game against Eintracht. Rose may spring a surprise and start Nkunku but even without the Frenchman, the attacking quartet of Andre Silva, Timo Werner, Szoboszlai and Forsberg are finally creating chemistry.
As for Eintracht Frankfurt, they’ll be disappointed with their performance against Napoli. A balanced opening 20 minutes, lapses in concentration has effectively ended their Champions League aspirations, needing to overturn a 2-0 deficit in Naples. Randal Kolo Muani will be suspended for that game but with 10 goals and 10 assists in 20 Bundesliga games this season, the Frenchman will want to rectify his mistake – that could mean trouble for Willi Orban and Co.
Only Borussia Dortmund (44) and Bayern Munich (61) have scored more goals than RB Leipzig (43)m and Eintracht Frankfurt (42) aren’t far behind. Eintracht have also scored in five of their last six away games but haven’t won away since November 5.
Both RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt are two attack-minded teams with an emphasis on transitioning the ball quickly in the final third. Neither team want to drop points as it would effectively put them out of the title race and with fatigue in the latter stages of the game, I expect both teams to try and capitalise on mistakes. Both Teams to Score is excellent value here.
Aberdeen v Livingston
Look for Saturday’s Premiership fixture between Aberdeen and Livingston to be one that produces goals – and not necessarily because either side is playing well. These two clubs come into disappointing form, but they are both leaking goals all over the place, with the Dons’ decision to sack Jim Goodwin several weeks back having limited impact.
Aberdeen do have a decent home record this season and indeed have won their only previous clash at Pittodrie under the interim management of Barry Robson. It followed in the pattern of previous Dons matches in front of their home support by producing goals as they won 3-1. Aberdeen’s 13 home fixtures this season have yielded 44 goals – well over three on average.
Meanwhile, the hosts have shown an inability to defend for weeks. In their last five league matches, they have conceded 19 times.
Livingston are not a particularly prolific side, yet their recent form has tended towards high-scoring affairs. Four of their last five league games have produced more than 2.5 goals, including a 4-2 win over St Johnstone in mid-January.
Recent history between these clubs also tends towards high-scoring matches. Each of the last four they have played and six of their last seven games since the beginning of last season have seen three of more goals, with Livingston winning three of the last four. Aberdeen did, however, picked up a 5-0 home success earlier this term.
Hamilton v Queen’s Park
Hamilton are unfavoured going into Saturday’s clash against the Championship leaders, but this represents an opportunity to profit from their long odds.
The two sides come into this game in contrasting form. Strangely, though, it is ninth-placed Hamilton who are playing more like the league leaders. In their last nine matches in all competitions, they have picked up seven wins and their only defeat came against Premiership high fliers Hearts. The opposition they have faced over this period has not been inconsiderable: four of their matches have been against teams in the top half of the league, while they also won a Scottish Cup game with Premiership Ross County.
While the home team are in their best moment of the season, the visitors come into this encounter in their most difficult. Owen Coyle’s side boast just one win in their last seven, while they have lost three successive away games against Dundee, Inverness and Morton. Their form is wavering.
Queen’s Park have won the two previous league meetings between these clubs, but the fortunes of the pair have shifted dramatically since they last met in December. Backing Hamilton on the draw no bet market at 2.4 looks a nice price, but simply supporting Accies to avoid defeat here offers a very nice price.
Alloa v Montrose
Alloa look excellent value to overcome Montrose on Saturday at Recreation Park, where they boast a formidable record this season.
The Wasps have the second strongest home record in League One, behind only Falkirk, who have played a game more. They have picked up more points in front of their own supporters than full-time outfits like Dunfermline and Airdrie, winning eight of 12 matches and losing only two.
That the hosts have been on somewhat disappointing form lately – one win in five – can be explained by the run of fixtures they have played. Over this period they have faced a very much in-form Falkirk six on three occasions and travelled to Airdrie, too.
Conversely, Montrose are a team curiously out of sorts. Having spent much of the last five years punching above their weight, they are suddenly struggling. They have won only one of their last matches, losing exactly half of these. They only managed to snatch a draw at home against Edinburgh last weekend due to a very late leveller.
The Mo, meanwhile, have not travelled with any distinction this season. In the league, they have won only three times on their travels.
Recent head-to-heads between these clubs strongly favour Alloa. Since both teams found themselves in League One at the beginning of last term, the Wasps have gone undefeated in six matches. At home, they have picked up successive 4-1 and 2-1 victories. The odds on this pattern continuing are very nice indeed.
Edinburgh v Clyde
FC Edinburgh’s secret behind pushing for an unexpected playoff spot this season has been their ability to pick off the league’s weaker teams, a bracket that Saturday’s visitors Clyde certainly fall into when they visit Meadowbank.
The Citizens have played part-time teams in the lower half of the league standings 10 times this season and have picked up seven victories, drawing the other three. Among these games have been relatively simple 2-0 wins over Clyde.
Although the hosts come into this match off the back of a sequence of four defeats and a draw, this is perhaps not as alarming as it might look on paper. They have played three full-time opponents in that period and went down by a single goal on each occasion, while the other match was against Alloa away from home.
Clyde, meanwhile, picked up their first league win under Jim Duffy last weekend but produced a rather turgid performance at home against Peterhead in what was an encounter between two sides that are clearly the weakest in the league. They gave up many goal scoring chances and against a more clinical team – like Edinburgh – would surely have conceded at least a couple.
Prior to last weekend’s match, the Bully Wee had suffered six defeats in seven. Their away record, meanwhile, is wretched, with 10 defeats in their last 11 league journeys.
Clyde rode their luck to get the win last weekend; don’t expect them to get away with it when they travel to the capital.
Dumbarton v Elgin
League Two leaders Dumbarton should be heavily favoured to pick up maximum points on Saturday against Elgin at the Rock.
The Sons have seen their form waver a little in recent weeks. Indeed, they have lost three of their last six matches in all competitions. It is worth pointing out, however, that all these games came away from home. In front of their own supporters, they have been extremely reliable. From 10 home league matches this season, they have picked up eight victories and have not suffered a solitary defeat.
Elgin, on the other hand, have seen the bottom fall out of their form lately. Although they went to Ayr in the Scottish Cup and nearly caused a huge upset, they have lost four of their last five matches, including recent games against Stranraer and Albion Rovers, who are both below them in the league.
On Tuesday, Gavin Price’s side travelled to Albion Rovers and were handily beaten 3-0, collapsing early in the second half in a concerning manner. Perhaps most worrying of all, the goals have dried up. Elgin boast some of the most talented forward players in the league but they have scored only five times in eight league matches dating back to December 23.
Dumbarton, meanwhile, are dominant in the head-to-head record between these clubs, winning both previous league fixtures this term. The 4-0 success they enjoyed at Borough Briggs was a high point of their season, with narrow wins often the order of the day. Look for the Sons to keep their home record rolling in this game.
AEK Athens v Asteras Tripolis
Second-placed AEK were dealt a hard blow last Sunday, when they lost 2-0 away at fourth-placed PAOK. This means that leaders Panathinaikos have managed to extend their lead to four points, though AEK do have one game in hand.
With Panathinaikos heading to Piraeus for the big Greek Super League derby against Olympiacos on Saturday, AEK are aware that they can put extra pressure on the league leaders by securing all three points against Asteras earlier on the same day.
No team have recorded more home wins than AEK this season, as Matias Almeyda’s men have won 10 of their 11 games on home soil. In fact, AEK have not dropped a single point at home since moving to the new OPAP Arena in October.
Almeyda’s side have won 13 home games in a row and only two of these matches ended with under 1.5 goals scored. In one of these games, the opposition goalkeeper made 13 saves but AEK managed a 1-0 stoppage-time victory.
The other one was a 1-0 win over Panathinaikos, who boasted the finest defence in Greece at the time. This is not the case for Asteras, as no team have conceded more away goals (20 in 11 matches) than the Tripoli-based side thus far.
Asteras may have lost just once in their last five games against the hosts, but this AEK side just do not drop points on home soil, making the most of their new ground, with tickets selling out for every game.
No team have netted more home goals than AEK, who average 2.6 goals scored at home since moving to OPAP Arena. Almeyda’s side are expected to grab a comfortable victory over Asteras in their bid to get back to winning ways.
Arouca v Casa Pia
Casa Pia kicked off September with a 0-0 draw against Arouca, their fourth clean sheet in their first five matches and their fifth straight match featuring under 2.5 goals. They have since kept six clean sheets in the league – including against Braga and Porto – continuing their impressive defensive record that saw them concede just 22 goals in 34 matches on their way to finishing second and returning to the top-flight after an 83-year absence.
Moreover, after a shaky run of form that saw them lose to Estoril Praia, Gil Vicente and Benfica as well as exit the Taça de Portugal quarterfinals to second-tier Nacional, it seems that the clean sheets are coming back to the Gansos. Casa Pia took successive 0-0 draws against Boavista and Vitória and will be looking to close out February with a strong result against another one of the revelations in the Primeira Liga this season: Arouca.
After narrowly avoiding the drop in their return to the Primeira, Arouca currently sit seventh in the table, two points behind Casa Pia and four behind Vitória. Like Casa Pia, whose top scorer is Clayton with 4 goals, they aren’t blessed with an assortment of lethal finishers, but they nevertheless make up for it with their organization, fluid movement and discipline.
Palestinian striker Oday Dabbagh is their top scorer with 7 goals, more than twice as much as the second-placed scorer, but he was kept under wraps in their past two matches, a 1-0 win against Santa Clara and a 0-2 defeat to Braga. Put quite simply, when Dabbagh is having an off day, Arouca’s attack is having an off day.
It remains to be seen which Dabbagh shows up to Arouca on Saturday, but I have a feeling this could be a fairly even, low-scoring match. Apart from defeats to Benfica and Porto, only one of Arouca’s last ten matches has featured over 2.5 goals – a 4-0 win against Portimonense on January 20, with their latter two goals coming after Portimonense were reduced to 10 men.
Both sides boast two impressive goalkeepers in Ricardo Batista and Ignacio de Arruabarrena as well as two of the most underrated defenders in Portugal in Vasco Fernandes and João Basso, and I’m expecting that defensive solidity to translate into a lack of goals. Either way, this should be an intriguing match-up between two sides who are challenging for the final European spot.
Sturm Graz v Austria Klagenfurt
Christian Ilzer’s Sturm side will look to continue a long unbeaten run as they take on a Klagenfurt team who are dropping down the table on Saturday.
The hosts have only lost once this season domestically and are making a genuine push for titles on two fronts. Having already seen off Salzburg in the Merkur Arena, there’s a lot of confidence in the team’s home form.
It’s been two wins from two in the Bundesliga in 2023, and the Grazers have continued their tradition of finding useful new scorers whenever necessary, something which helps make them hard to defend against – there’s no single main threat to mark out of the game. Newcomer Bryan Teixeira has also settled in so quickly on the wing for Sturm, aiding in their already high chance creation rate, which is second best in the league.
For Austria Klagenfurt, there has been an unceremonious slip out of the top six, which went somewhat under the radar given the winter break. One draw and five defeats is their record from the last six competitive games, and while top scorer Markus Pink can’t seem to get his (unlucky?) 13th of the season, they’re also missing a helpful backup with an injury to Jonas Urwiler.
Last week’s drubbing at the hands of WAC was a very low moment, with the defence cut open by simple passes, and although they will be keen to hit back, away in Graz is amongst the toughest places to do so right now, and we feel that Sturm will have enough nous to navigate this task.
Fenerbahce v Konyaspor
This match was originally postponed after the terrible earthquakes that tragically occurred on February 6 in the south of Turkey. Both teams have since made new signings, but none of them are eligible to play in this game as they were signed after it was scheduled to be played.
Fenerbahce had increased the quality of their game and had lots of chances to score last time out against Adana Demirspor, but the match ultimately ended 1-1. This was still a solid performance in one of the toughest away games in the Super Lig, but this time round they must do without striker Michy Batshuayi who is suspended.
Konyaspor are struggling. Two of their key players – Hadziahmetovic and Bytyqy – have left the side. The new coach has lost his first three games and they are now bordering on a full-blown crisis having failed to win for eight games in a row. The players are unhappy, the quality of the squad has been weakened and the fans are protesting.
Fenerbahce must win this game to help them close the point gap to Galatasaray at the top. Konyaspor are in a poor run of form and frankly look to have little to no hope of getting anything from this game. I expect Fenerbahce to win this relatively comfortably.
Sion v St. Gallen
FC Sion are in need of a recovery tonic after their winless run in the Super League was stretched to ten games courtesy of a 1-1 draw at Winterthur last weekend. A good result in isolation given the home form of Winti, but another result that keeps Sion firmly entrenched in the relegation playoff spot and just one point from the even more ominous automatic relegation position.
It is hard to imagine what Mario Balotelli envisaged when he signed on the dotted line in the Valais over the summer but I don’t believe it was anything like this. The survival assignments don’t get particularly easier for Sion either and the visit of St. Gallen this weekend will bring flashbacks to the 7-2 defeat suffered at the hands of Peter Zeidler’s side back in November to send them into the winter break.
To be fair, St. Gallen haven’t faired much better in the games since they become the first team to score seven away at Sion back in November. Despite their loftier position, a 3-0 victory over Servette has been their only victory since that day and FCSG also have only three wins from their last fourteen matches.
And again, despite that victory away to Sion, their overall away record doesn’t make for particularly good reading with only two wins and the highest goals conceded tally on their travels. A quick glance at the league table would make the visitors favourites, and they probably still are, but I think it is better to focus on goals in this match.
Sion haven’t scored many at home but two of the eleven they have notched came in that defeat to FCSG, they will also fancy their chances of scoring against such a leaky defence. St. Gallen will have the same thought process having scored the joint-highest number of away goals and coming up against a team with the worst home defence. Eleven of the last thirteen have ended with Over 2.5 Goals and I predict this one will too.
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