The match market is an interesting one, but there is enough evidence that I have seen in my research to suggest that we should be siding with the Germans here.

Dortmund are actually highly experienced Champions League operators now. As such, they will probably understand the value of making the top eight in this league phase, therefore avoiding that tricky play-off round. They are in a good position in which to do this, but need a win here.

There has only been one home game in the Champions League this term so far for Dortmund, but they won it convincingly 4-1 against Athletic Club, a team from the same league as Villarreal. Going back into last season, Dortmund’s home record was four wins, two draws, one loss, with the loss to Barcelona in the league phase. They beat Barca in the knockout stages at home, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sturm Graz, and Celtic. Their xG differential at home is +1.2 xG in the Champions League over the last two seasons, which is a big performance differential.

Villarreal have lost both of their away Champions League matches so far, both 0-1, to Pafos and Tottenham. The bad news for Villarreal is that this will be a much tougher task than either of those matches.

This bet is suggested on the basis of Dortmund dominating territory and playing their usual brand of enterprising attacking football. Villarreal haven’t been big conceders of shots on target in their away Champions League games, but they did concede seven at home to Man City, and four at home to Juventus.

Dortmund averaged 6.7 shots on target at home in the Champions League last season, with five out of their seven home matches hitting this line. They average six shots on target per match at home this season in all competitions, including eight against Athletic Club in their only home Champions League match so far this season.

Dortmund will have to overcome a stubborn Villarreal defence, but they haven’t been as tight as they usually are in La Liga this season, only ranking seventh for expected goals against. We also know that Villarreal have to come out and play at some stage if they have real ambitions to progress here.

Central defenders are always the biggest prices in these markets, but Nico Schlotterbeck’s recent matches have seen a massive increase in the regularity of him being fouled, that clearly hasn’t been accounted for. Schlotterbeck is averaging 1.14 fouls against him per 90 over Dortmund’s last 30 fixtures, which makes this a good bet already.

However, it is the change in the last few matches which makes this a standout bet at the prices. Schlotterbeck has been fouled in the last four matches in a row, and at least twice in each of the last three matches. He was fouled three times last time out against Stuttgart, so it seems as though there is something in Schlotterbeck’s game that has changed recently, which is bringing him more physical contact.

Villarreal play two centre forwards, so this, to me, increases the likelihood of wide central defenders getting involved in physical duels, which, again, increases the chances of fouls being part of the game.

Nmecha has been playing in a more withdrawn double pivot role alongside Jobe Bellingham more recently, and this has only added the probability of Nmecha getting involved in physical duels and fouls.

He is averaging 1.32 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, but this increases to 1.74 per 90 when changing the sample size to the last 10 matches. This illustrates the difference in Nmecha’s game recently, and this comes by dint of him playing more regularly in central midfield.

Nmecha committed five fouls in Dortmund’s last game against Stuttgart, but yet he somehow avoided a yellow card for this. Indeed, Nmecha is someone who seems to be able to give away fouls but without being given regular yellow cards, having avoiding any in that 10 game period. This actually helps in foul bets, as he won’t be afraid of committing fouls, knowing that he often doesn’t get carded for them.