Romelu Lukaku’s luck has to change in front of goal at some point. As of Monday night, Lukaku has had more goals disallowed at Euro 2024 (three) than anyone else in the competition has scored. He has been denied by the most marginal of calls.

On top of this, the Belgium No.9 has also been the recipient of the sixth-highest npxG per 90 in the competition, coming in with 0.62.

Ukraine, meanwhile, have proven vulnerable against far weaker attacks. They leaked 1.1xG in losing 3-0 to Romania and 0.8xG in a narrow 2-1 win against Slovakia. Romania’s centre forward Denis Dragus, in particular, got joy against the Ukrainian defence, chalking up 0.9xG.

Lukaku, meanwhile, is a prolific scorer on the international stage and is overdue a goal. In 117 Belgium caps, he has scored an enormous 85 goals. As many as 17 of these strikes arrived in just 11 internationals before the beginning of Euro 2024. He may, therefore, have passed up some promising chances, but he is a player with goals in his boots for the national team.

With Belgium unlikely to sit back in a game they cannot afford to lose, expect to see him get some significant chances.

Sparta Prague forward Ivan Schranz has been the unexpected hero for Slovakia at Euro 2024, netting both goals for his nation, who still have an excellent chance of progression from Group E, in which every team has three points.

Schranz only scored two league goals over the course of the last campaign yet has proven an unlikely talisman for the national side, with whom he had scored only three goals in 22 appearances before this competition.

His form in Germany, though, cannot be ignored. He has been excellent coming off the right wing. Against Belgium, he reacted in an opportunist style in the box to finish from a tight angle, while versus Ukraine he headed home a cross at the back post.

From a Romanian perspective, they have not defended the right-wing particularly convincingly. Against Ukraine, Viktor Tsyhankov managed two shots from that area (neither on target), while Belgium’s Dodi Lukebakio and later Leandro Trossard had four shots (one on target).

It appears that Schranz will get his chances, and given his form lately, he may just take another. At his price of 7.0, he certainly appears good value.

The dynamic of Georgia’s final group game against Portugal means that Georges Mikautadze is an inviting price at 4.5 to score anytime in this game.

Portugal are already group winners by virtue of the fact they have six points and the only side who can match that figure is Turkey, who cannot overtake them due to their head-to-head record. With nothing on the line, the comparative motivation level of Roberto Martinez’s side compared to their opponents is low. Georgia need a win to realistically progress.

The finals debutants have been bold in their approach so far against the Czech Republic and Turkey and are unlikely to take a step back in this game. Expect them to seek to profit in offensive positions where possible, with Mikautadze posing their biggest scoring threat.

The Metz striker has already scored in both games to date, generating 1.5xG alone. He is also Georgia’s penalty taker, enhancing his chances of netting.

Furthermore, he is used to excelling in an underdog team. With Metz in Ligue 1, he scored 0.67 goals per 90 last season in a team that was relegated. He knows how to excel off few chances, and that could be vital for the Georgians.