La Liga Final Day Permutations Guide
Ramis Ibrahim
Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.
La Liga Final Day Permutations
Barcelona secured back-to-back LaLiga titles a few weeks ago, seeing off the challenge of a hapless Real Madrid, who look to be turning to the Special One to try and guide them back to glory.
I’d be more convinced by Real Madrid’s approach if this were 2008, but the main focus on the final day of the LaLiga campaign is the relegation battle, which has been very fun to track over the last few weeks.
There are two relegation spots left to avoid, with clubs as high as 13th in the standings still being at risk of the drop if certain results do not go their way. Mallorca are in the biggest danger heading into the final day, needing to win and hope that others lose to secure survival.
There’s also an intriguing race for a Conference League spot, with six sides still able to unseat Getafe from their current position in seventh in the LaLiga table.
La Liga Permutations
Key Fixtures
Girona v Elche
This is probably the most important game of the final day in LaLiga. Girona are in the relegation zone, but can easily hatch an escape with as many as five teams within reach if they collect all three points. A point won’t be enough for Girona; they must win to secure their status in the top flight.
Elche sit just two points, and one spot above Girona at the bottom of the table, a point for them would be enough to guarantee survival as this would also put them out of the reach of Mallorca, who have the most favourable assignment of any of the sides trying to avoid relegation heading into the final day of the campaign. Elche have not been good on the road this year, winning just one of their 18 away matches.
Elche did come away 3-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, though I’d expect this meeting to be a lot more competitive given the direct consequences for both sides if they do not collect three points, or in Elche’s case, at least a point.
Real Betis v Levante
Real Betis have already secured a spot in the Champions League next season, and can’t move away from their fifth-place finish regardless of what happens on the final day of the campaign. This will relax the home side, who welcome a Levante side under a heap of pressure as they look to avoid the drop down to LaLiga 2.
Levante are in the huddle of teams loitering over the relegation zone. A point is likely to be enough for the away side here; it would put them out of the reach of Mallorca, and their goal difference superiority over Girona should be enough to ensure safety, though this only needs a three-goal swing to become a problem for Levante.
Levante have won each of their last three games to give them a real chance of staying up on the final day, including a crucial win over Mallorca at home last time out, which may be what they look back on as the game that secured their status in the Spanish top flight for another season.
Mallorca v Real Oviedo
Mallorca have the most favourable game of the sides battling relegation on the final day, but the outcome is not in their hands. Mallorca must win and hope that other results go their way to survive, and they are also banking on a change in the goal difference, which is currently weighted against them.
Of the sides that Mallorca can catch on the final day, Levante have the most comparable goal difference with the other sides all boasting slightly healthier metrics than Mallorca in this regard. It’s useful for Mallorca that Levante must get a result at Betis, a side that have only lost three of their 18 home matches this season.
I do expect this to be a formality for Mallorca given what is at stake, and Real Oviedo, long relegated, sitting at the bottom of the division. Mallorca have only lost four of their 18 home games this season, and can also lean on the form of Vedat Muriqi, who has enjoyed a brilliant campaign with 22 goals to his name in the Spanish top flight.
Getafe v Osasuna
This game has implications in the battle for a Conference League spot and the fight to avoid the drop as Osasuna travel to Getafe. The home side need to win here to be sure of a spot in Europe next season, with five other sides looking to hunt down that Conference League spot.
Getafe are not a fun side to watch. I get the sense that their coach, Jose Bordelas, gets a bit of enjoyment from watching his side set up to be the biggest bastards in the Spanish top flight. They will play like this again here, potentially creating real issues for a relegation-threatened Osasuna side.
The away outfit sit just two points above the relegation zone heading into the final day of the campaign, though are aided by Elche and Girona facing off on the final day as well as an eight-goal buffer when it comes to goal difference compared to Mallorca, who are the other side that could still potentially catch them on the final day.
Key Stats
This season has seen an average of 2.69 goals per game in LaLiga, one of the lower totals across Europe’s top five leagues.
After losing the first El Clásico of the season, Barcelona won 23 of their remaining 25 games to win the title.
Barcelona won all 19 of their home games in LaLiga this season.
LaLiga has seen BTTS in just 46% of their games this season, again one of the lower tallies across Europe’s top five leagues.
LaLiga records the most yellow cards per game of any of Europe’s top five leagues this season (4.42 per game).
This card record is despite LaLiga ranking pretty modestly for fouls, suggesting referees are quicker to reach for their pocket.
LaLiga has seen 78 red cards this season, 24 more than any of the other European top five leagues.
Conclusion
Barcelona and Real Madrid, for once, are not the focus of the final day action in LaLiga, with the key battles set to be to survive in the division and to qualify for the Conference League.
LaLiga has been one of the most congested leagues in Europe this season, which is reflected by how many sides can still qualify for Europe or face the drop heading into the final day of the campaign.
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