Ligue 1 Final Day Permutations Guide
Ramis Ibrahim
Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.
Ligue 1 Final Day Permutations
Ligue 1 rolls on to the final day of the season, PSG have already wrapped up the title - but it hasn’t been as easy as many people expected this year, with Lens pushing them all the way to the final matchday.
There’s still plenty to be settled elsewhere in the table, including a fierce battle for European spots and Nice desperately trying to avoid an awkward relegation playoff at the tail end of the table
Ligue 1 Permutations
Key Fixtures
Lille v Auxerre
This is the biggest game of the final day with consequences at both ends of the table. Lille currently sit in the third available Champions League spot given to the French top flight, but are being closely pursued by Lyon and Rennes who could both unseat Lille if things don’t go to plan for the home side here.
The good news for Lille is that they have avoided defeat in each of the last nine head to head meetings between these sides in Ligue 1, a run that spans 15 years. Lille have only lost three of their 18 home games in Ligue 1 this season, it’s likely that they’d have to win here to fully be sure of a Champions League spot, though both Lyon and Rennes have tough fixtures on the final day of the campaign against Lens and Marseille.
Auxerre are fighting for their lives at the opposite end of the table, and make up one of three sides who will potentially have to face a relegation playoff to survive in Ligue 1 this season. Nice must win to stand a chance of survival, given how poor their goal difference is, but a point could be enough for Auxerre if either Le Havre or Nice slip up.
Unfortunately for Auxerre, they’ve only managed one away win all season, so it’s very unlikely that they turn up here against a Lille side that have plenty to fight for themselves on the final day of the Ligue 1 season.
Lyon v Lens
Lens have battled really well this season to push PSG pretty much all the way in the Ligue 1 title race. No one expected them to challenge PSG in this manner, so that is an achievement within itself and Lens have also secured Champions League football for next season regardless of what happens here so overall this is a successful campaign for the underdogs.
They travel to a Lyon side who are attempting to hunt down Lille for a spot in the Champions League next season. They’re currently sitting in a qualifying spot, but that is far from secure as well given that Rennes sit patiently waiting behind both Lyon and Lille in case either slip up on the final day - though Rennes do have to travel to Marseille for their last assignment of the campaign.
Lyon have had a really odd season, with stretches of unbeaten and winning runs followed by barren spells of five or six games without a win. This inconsistency has barred them from challenging higher up the table, but they have been pretty good at home with only the top two sides in Ligue 1 winning more points at home than Lyon this campaign.
Nice v Metz
Nice have been very fortunate with how the fixtures have fallen on the final day, as any other opponent other than an already relegated Metz side would have made for an awkward end to the campaign as they look to avoid the relegation playoff fixture.
Nice are in a battle alongside Auxerre and Le Havre to avoid that extra dreaded game, and have the weakest set of circumstances heading into the final day as the side in the relegation zone - despite having the most favourable fixture of the trio.
Nice have been pretty poor at home all season, winning just four of their 16 matches in front of their own fans and losing each of their last five home games in Ligue 1. They lost to Metz earlier in the season, highlighting the potential jeopardy here for them - though Metz have only managed to win one of their 16 away matches in Ligue 1 this season.
Marseille v Rennes
This is pretty much a straight shootout for the European spots. Marseille currently sit in a Conference League position, but can make that Europa League qualification if they manage to get a result on the final day and other results go their way.
Rennes currently occupy that Europa League spot, and are pushing for a Champions League finish themselves. Marseille can’t quite get to those positions, even with all three points, so there could be quite the domino effect here if either side managed to find a way to win the game.
Rennes have impressed this season, and have notably ended the season quite strongly with four wins from their last five matches across all competitions. Only Lille and PSG have picked up more points on the road than Rennes in Ligue 1 this term, so this will be an awkward game for the home side with both teams having European aspirations.
Key Stats
PSG won their fifth consecutive Ligue 1 title with victory over Lens in the penultimate gameweek.
Lille, Lyon and Rennes are separated by three points on the final day with just one automatic Champions League qualifying spot up for grabs.
Lyon must qualify for the Champions League, or risk financially imploding - as they nearly did last season.
The Coupe De France final further complicates the European battle, if Lens beat Nice then teams down to seventh could qualify for Europe.
On the final day of the 24/25 season, eight of the nine matches saw over 2.5 goals.
The seasonal average for goals in Ligue 1 this season sits at 2.82 per game, none of the last four final days in Ligue 1 have seen an average of under 3.00 goals across the nine games.
Draws tend to be rare on the final day, there have only been two draws across the last two final days of the Ligue 1 season.
Conclusion
PSG may have secured the title again, but Ligue 1 is such a competitive league and well worth keeping an eye on ahead of the final day of the campaign with there still being key battles to settle in the race for Europe and the race to avoid relegation.
Like most leagues on the final day of the season, goals and big scorelines tend to be common. There also seems to be fewer draws, and more home wins which are trends worth factoring in to any bets you put together yourself for the final evening of action in Ligue 1 this season.
More Betting Tips & Predictions
Browse today's full coverage from Andy's Bet Club, including European Football Betting Tips and Free Football Betting Tips Today.
Andy’s Bet Club users can also use the Bet Builder Stats Tool and Accumulator Stats Tool for further research.
Today's Related Tips
Free Bets & Bookmaker Sign Up Offers
Andy's Bet Club lists the Best Free Bets UK from fully licensed UK Bookmakers - verified and updated weekly.
See the full list of bookmaker offers in the UK on Andy's Bet Club - updated daily. Our Offers Hub includes the Best Odds Boosts and Free Betting Games.
Free bets and bookmaker promotions this weekend include Premier League Free Bets, EFL Free Bets, and Man United v Nottingham Forest Free Bets.
Andy Robson surveyed over 2,500 real bettors from his community to get their thoughts on the Best UK Betting Site as well as the Best Betting Sites For Bet Builders, the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, and more. This data is excellent for giving real advice for those looking for a new betting site.
World Cup 2026
With the World Cup approaching, Andy's Bet Club has full coverage - World Cup 2026 Betting Tips & Predictions and a guide to the Best World Cup 2026 Free Bets & Offers from every major bookmaker.
18+ please gamble responsibly.
