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Man City v Real Madrid
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Kick Off: Tuesday 11th February at 20:00
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Competition: UEFA Champions League
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Watch Live: Amazon Prime UK
In the most unexpected play-off tie, Manchester City welcome Real Madrid knowing that next week 1 of these European giants will be exiting the competition at this early stage. Manchester City’s form continues to be a rollercoaster with some worrying signs in recent weeks, most notably a 5-1 loss to Arsenal with a performance that was totally uncharacteristic of a Pep Guardiola side.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have improved since the earlier stages of the season, however, it is those performances which has meant they have to contend with an extra round of the competition to reach the knockout stages. Los Blancos have only lost 2 of their last 17 games across all competitions coming into this 1 as a modern rivalry is renewed at the Etihad Stadium.
⭐ Man City v Real Madrid Best Bet
Bellingham is a fouls magnet, this is down to how he carries the ball and his physical frame making it very difficult for the opposition to stop him from going forward without bringing him to the ground. Looking at the Manchester City midfield, 1 of the reasons they’ve really struggled this season is due to a lack of physicality and tenacity in midfield. As much as Rodri was valued for his work on the ball, his work off it was just as important and something City desperately miss.
This should encourage Bellingham, he’s got the physical beating of Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo Silva who are expected to line up in the middle of the park for Manchester City and boasts a solid fouls won record in the competition. Bellingham is averaging 2.47 fouls won per 90 across his 8 appearances in the Champions League this season.
Bellingham is also averaging 2.43 fouls won per 90 across his 19 La Liga appearances this campaign, showing that his numbers stay consistent over a larger sample size. Such promising numbers make it likely that Bellingham is fouled at least twice here. Admittedly, Manchester City don’t often post high foul numbers but Bellingham should draw out a few more than usual from the Cityzens.
🔵 Man City v Real Madrid ABC Exclusive Boost
The early stages of this Champions League tie could be really tense, both of these sides face disaster if they exit at this early stage – especially Manchester City who are only really fighting on 2 fronts now with the Champions League and the FA Cup. We saw this tension in Manchester City’s 3-1 win over Club Brugge in their most recent Champions League game, Pep Guardiola’s side were very passive in the first half and only reacted when Club Brugge took the lead, there should be more of that tension in this tie with Real Madrid also having an average campaign by their standards so far.
Bellingham is averaging 2.47 fouls won per 90 across his 8 Champions League appearances this campaign, he’s been really effective in the competition in providing 5 goal contributions across these appearances. His foul record is a result of strong ball carrying through central areas of the pitch, this could be key in this game with City currently really struggling to stop teams cutting through them on the transition.
Vinicius offers value to score or assist, especially with Matheus Nunes likely his opposite number – a clear downgrade on Kyle Walker who has been able to match the Brazilian for large periods of the teams’ recent meetings.
👕 Man City v Real Madrid Predicted XI
🔍 Man City v Real Madrid Players to Watch
🔵 Phil Foden
Manchester City desperately need a spark and at the moment, Foden looks the most likely to provide it. 8 of his 14 goal contributions across all appearances this campaign have come since the turn of the year which highlights how long it took him to find the form which made him Premier League POTY last season but also shows that he carries some sense of form and momentum into this game.
Foden has recorded 4 goal contributions across his 7 Champions League appearances this campaign and can extend that run here in a game which Manchester City simply have to take something from, to have a chance at the Bernabeu in the coming weeks.
🔵 Mateo Kovacic
It’s no secret that 1 of the main issues why Manchester City are struggling at the moment is the absence of Rodri. Not only would Rodri control the tempo of the game for City, he was incredibly good at spotting danger and being robust in his challenges to limit the amount of opportunities that the opposition had to catch Manchester City on the break.
There isn’t really anyone as effective at this skill in world football, let alone in Manchester City’s squad but Pep Guardiola has decided to plug that hole with Mateo Kovacic for now. He’s collected 1 yellow card across his 4 appearances in the Champions League whilst averaging 0.68 fouls committed per 90, this is an average we can expect to increase as he’ll be up against Jude Bellingham who is averaging 2.47 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this campaign.
⚪ Kylian Mbappe
Mbappe is growing into his role as a Galactico, he’s scored 3 goals across his 8 Champions League appearances this season whilst averaging 5.03 shots per 90 and 2.44 shots on target per 90 in the competition.
He’s a constant goal threat and what will concern Pep Guardiola is his frightening speed which can continue to unsettle an unconvincing Manchester City backline that have struggled to limit speedy transitions this term. Mbappe is also averaging 2.47 shots on target per 90 across his 21 La Liga appearances, scoring 16 goals in the process.
📂 Man City v Real Madrid Cheat Sheet
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💻 Man City v Real Madrid Form and Tactics
Pep Guardiola has shown few signs that he’s going to change his tactical approach, despite the issues that Manchester City have had in finding consistency and defensive organisation. City line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape which is notable due to the fact that in recent weeks the full backs have been operating as traditional full backs with not much inverting or clever movement.
This is an area of Manchester City that is really quite weak, especially at right back where Matheus Nunes has looked vulnerable at times and now faces the tough task of Vinicius Jr. Don’t be surprised to see Pep Guardiola put an extra body on the dangerous winger as Nunes simply won’t be able to handle him 1 v 1.
Manchester City are without a clean sheet in their last 5 games across all competitions, that being said they have managed to score themselves in all of those games which will offer some hope to Pep Guardiola, that at least his side is finding some success in the final third. The speed of the turnovers can be too much for a midfield with a Rodri-shaped hole in it and it allows the opposition a path to the City goal far too easily.
The picture looks a bit brighter for Real Madrid at the moment, despite finding themselves in the play-offs Carlo Ancelotti’s side have only lost 2 of their last 17 games across all competitions showing that they can be a very tough side to beat and have a collection of players that can hurt any side, especially in attacking areas. The 2 key battles that Real will think they can win here are Bellingham against Kovacic in the middle of the pitch and Vinicius Jr against Nunes in the wide areas.
With Manchester City’s defensive struggles and Real Madrid missing key players at the back due to injury, you do get the feeling that this game will have a high volume of chances with neither defence being the rock-solid structure it has been in the past.
What is key to note is that this is a 2-legged tie, neither of these sides will completely abandon their game plans here which are likely to be more about staying in the tie rather than winning it on the night. Both have experience of this stage of knockout football in recent seasons so there shouldn’t be too many nerves on display but it is hard to look past the attacking quartet of Real Madrid against a City team that give too much space to the opposition.
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🏁 Man City v Real Madrid Ref Watch
- Referee – Clement Turpin
- In the league phase, only Bologna collected more yellow cards than Real Madrid who averaged 3.0 cards per game.
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 2.00 / 0.00 |
| Fouls Given | 18.50 |
| Penalties | 0.50 |
📺 How to Watch Man City v Real Madrid in the Champions League
📅 When is Man City v Real Madrid? / Tuesday, 11th February 2025, 20:00
🏟 Where is Man City v Real Madrid? / Etihad Stadium (Manchester)
📺 What TV Channel is Man City v Real Madrid on? / Amazon Prime UK
🟨 …And who is the referee for Man City v Real Madrid? / Clement Turpin 🇫🇷
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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