Real Madrid suffered another setback under Xabi Alonso at the weekend as they lost 2-0 to Celta Vigo at the Bernabeu, also ending the game with nine men after Fran Garcia and Alvaro Carreras were sent off. 

That defeat makes this clash even more important for Real, they’re now four points behind Barcelona in the La Liga title race, which is a tough tally to make up. Los Blancos have fared much better in the Champions League, with four wins from their five matches - but this is easily their biggest challenge yet.

Real Madrid have seen BTTS in two of their five Champions League matches so far this term, most recently contesting a seven-goal thriller against Olympiacos. Manchester City have shown some real vulnerability at the back in recent matches, conceding 2+ goals against Leeds at the Etihad before shipping four goals in their 5-4 win over Fulham at Craven Cottage.

City have struggled defensively on the road this season, with 10 goals conceded across their seven away matches in the Premier League this season. They’ve seen BTTS in each of their last three away matches across all competitions against Fulham, Newcastle and Swansea.

Phil Foden has been climbing back to his best form for a few months now and isn’t too far from the peak. He scored again for Man City against Sunderland last time out, marking the third successive game in which he’s found the back of the net.

He got on the end of a wonderful rabona cross produced by Rayan Cherki to head home, and will be optimistic of his chances of hurting Real Madrid here. Foden has had 2+ shots in four of his last five appearances for City, with the exception of their 2-0 defeat against Leverkusen, in which he only played 45 minutes.

Foden has had nine shots across his four appearances in the Champions League this term (2.57 per 90) with this record producing two goals. It’s worth exploring angles for Foden to take shots from outside the box, too, both of his goals in the Champions League have come from distance - as have five of his nine attempts in total.

Tchouameni has been a near ever present for Xabi Alonso in the Champions League this season, featuring in all five matches and committing four fouls across these games (0.82 per 90).

He’ll line up alongside Camavinga, with his midfield partner priced as short as 1.07 to commit a foul here. The duo will be operating in similar areas, and have similar opponents - so it makes more sense to take Tchouameni to commit a foul at a more appealing price.

His main opponent is likely to be Phil Foden, who looks like he’s back to his best form having scored in each of his last three matches heading into this clash. Foden is very strong when it comes to winning fouls, drawing 16 across his 13 Premier League appearances this season (1.38 per 90).

Real Madrid’s midfield duo will also brush shoulders with Rayan Cherki, who has interestingly formed a strong partnership with Foden - despite it initially looking like the duo were going to be fighting for the same spot. Cherki is averaging 2.26 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this term, and has won two fouls in just 40 minutes of action in the Champions League.

Thibaut Courtois has been forced into making 3+ saves in all four of his appearances in the Champions League this season, totalling 20 stops overall (5.00 per game).

He’s been regularly tested in matches against Liverpool (8 saves) and Juventus (4 saves) which is to be expected, but he was also forced into four saves against sides like Kairat Almaty and Marseille - which is reflective of how poor Madrid have been at the back this season.

Real Madrid’s backline is littered with injuries, so Courtois will have an even more important role than usual if Madrid want to keep City out. Courtois is forecasted to have a back four of Asencio, Rudiger, Carreras and Garcia in front of him which is a lineup that will do well to contain the likes of Haaland, Doku and Foden with City netting 11 goals across their last three matches. 

Pep Guardiola’s side have forced the opposition goalkeeper to make 3+ saves in all five of their matches in the Champions League this term - drawing seven in each of their last two matches against Dortmund and Leverkusen

Erling Haaland’s relentless scoring power has cooled a little in recent weeks, with just one goal since the international break, but the Norwegian is always a threat and will relish the opportunity he has against Real Madrid’s backline here.

Real Madrid are expected to be without Dean Huijsen, David Alaba, Eder Militao and Trent Alexander-Arnold for this clash - meaning that they are missing a large chunk of their starting backline. This chopped up defence has only kept one clean sheet across Real Madrid’s last five matches, so we can anticipate that City will create chances.

Haaland has netted five goals across his five appearances in the Champions League this term. He’s also scored 23 goals across his 24 appearances in all competitions, and will be able to torment a rotated Real Madrid backline on Wednesday.

Nico O’Reilly is still quite inexperienced when it comes to playing in the Champions League, with this set to be just his fourth ever start in the competition. It’s easy to forget that O’Reilly is this inexperienced, he’s very composed for his age and has earned the trust of Guardiola at left back, one of the more important positions in this City side when Guardiola’s team are without the ball.

O’Reilly has picked up one yellow card in the Champions League this season, which he received against Dortmund in City’s 4-1 win a few months ago. He was up against Karim Adeyemi on that occasion, who was fouled three times - mainly due to his speed and the threat that he offered Dortmund in transition. Real Madrid can replicate this with the profile of their forwards, who are all constantly looking to get in behind.

O’Reilly has picked up a further two cautions in the Premier League this season. I don’t think he’ll be intimidated by the occasion, as we’ve seen how calm he is when playing for England. But, it is still reasonable to suggest that he may be a bit overeager to impress on such a big stage, and dive into a few clumsy challenges.