Premier League Final Day Permutations Guide
Ramis Ibrahim
Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.
Premier League Final Day Permutations
Arsenal secured their first Premier League title in 22 years during the week as Manchester City’s challenge crumbled at the hands of Bournemouth, who managed to hold them to a 1-1 draw.
Despite no drama being left in the title race, there are still ongoing battles around the division which are worth keeping an eye on during the final day of the campaign - including the relegation battle as West Ham and Tottenham desperately attempt to avoid the drop to the Championship.
Premier League Permutations
Key Fixtures
Tottenham v Everton
Tottenham find themselves needing just a point on the final day of the season to secure their status as a Premier League club. It’s been a chaotic season for the Lilywhites, which has eased slightly under Roberto De Zerbi, but the underlying problems have been there for Tottenham all season, with injuries further complicating their survival bid.
This may look like a decent game for Tottenham on paper to ensure their survival, but their home record in the Premier League has been really poor this season. Tottenham have picked up the joint fewest points at home in the Premier League this campaign (12), winning just two of their 18 home matches - with these victories coming against Burnley and Brentford.
This will be a very awkward game for the home side, but West Ham’s failure to put more pressure on Tottenham and make this a must-win game means that I think they are likely to get the point they need. They’ve only lost one of their last five matches, showing marginal improvement under De Zerbi, and face an Everton side that have failed to win any of their last five matches, losing three of these games.
West Ham v Leeds
West Ham must win on the final day against an already safe Leeds side, who will finish at least nine points clear of the drop zone in what has proven to be a very successful season for Daniel Farke’s side, when also factoring in their run to the semi-final of the FA Cup.
West Ham have really let themselves down over recent weeks, with three consecutive defeats. The 1-0 loss to Arsenal was to be expected, but conceding three goals on the road against the likes of Brentford and Newcastle was hardly going to be sustainable in a relegation run-in.
They do have a slim chance of survival, but it is out of their hands as they need Tottenham to lose as well as the three points - any other scenario would see West Ham face the drop. West Ham have faced Leeds twice this season, failing to beat them on both occasions. It’ll be a real uphill task for Nuno’s side - but if they can take an early lead then the pressure is sure to ramp up in North London if Everton prove tough to shift.
Sunderland v Chelsea
Chelsea must be kicking themselves; even an extra point heading into this final day would have put them in contention for a spot in the Champions League next season - with that premium extending to sixth place following Aston Villa’s thrashing of Freiburg in the Europa League final.
Europe is still an option for the Blues, but I’d question if they would even want a Conference League spot. I think this would serve as more of a hindrance rather than a positive for the incoming Xabi Alonso, though a spot in the Europa League would be a decent opportunity for Chelsea’s developing squad and save face slightly for the Blues in what has been a very challenging season.
Sunderland have all the motivation in the world to get three points here. A win could see them into Europe, truly dispelling the myths around promoted clubs struggling in the Premier League. It would be a bit of history for Regis Le Bris, but they need other results to go their way as well as collecting the three points against Chelsea.
Brighton v Manchester United
It’s pretty crazy to think that one of Brighton or Bournemouth will be competing in the Champions League next season. It’s a real credit to the strength of the Premier League, and reflects how these competitive clubs over the last few seasons are now developing into elite sides that can really push the traditional ‘big six’ in a way that wasn’t really possible before.
Brighton have the slight advantage of being at home on the final day, with both Bournemouth facing a trip to Forest. Brighton also hold a crucial lead over the Cherries when it comes to goal difference, which could be critical on the final day in deciding the outcome of the European spots, with Brighton currently leading Andoni Iraola’s side by five goals in this metric, something which isn’t likely to swing in Bournemouth’s favour on the final day of the campaign.
Manchester United have reached their goal for the season and will be back in the Champions League come September. However, there’s real personal motivation here for Bruno Fernandes, who can break the Premier League assist record with just one assist on the final day of the campaign after equalling the long-standing record of 20 against Forest last time out.
Key Stats
Arsenal ended a 22-year wait for the Premier League title with City dropping points during the week, their first since the Invincible triumph under Arsene Wenger.
Since the start of the 2022/23 season, Arsenal have collected more points and spent more days atop the Premier League than any other club.
Tottenham last faced relegation in the 1976/77 season; West Ham have been in the top flight since 2011.
At least 31 goals have been scored on the final day of the Premier League since the 15/16 season.
The final day of each of the last 14 Premier League seasons has seen an increase in the average goals per game from across the season.
The Premier League has seen 2.74 goals per game this season - one of the lower averages across recent seasons.
Tottenham have not won at home since early December in the Premier League; they need at least a point to survive in the top flight.
Conclusion
The final day of the Premier League is worth keeping an eye on for the relegation battle between Tottenham and West Ham, as well as the race for Europe with as many as six sides competing in the Champions League next season - including one of Bournemouth or Brighton.
Sunderland can also extend their fairytale season with victory over Chelsea as they look to qualify for Europe at the first time of asking as a newly promoted side. There’s still plenty to fight for even if you can’t stomach tuning in for the trophy lift at Selhurst Park as another season of the best league in the world comes to a close.
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