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Roma v Udinese Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Roma v Udinese Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 7 November, 20254 min read
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The Perceptive Football Punter

Football analyst, betting writer, and educator. Wealth of experience studying football markets and identifying value opportunities through a data-heavy approach. As a true specialist in player markets, I use that knowledge and theory to educate others on how to spot shrewd angles in the market.

Roma host Udinese at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday evening, the hosts looking to bounce back from a slight downturn in results which has seen them lose to title rivals twice in the last couple of weeks.

It’s been a workmanlike campaign for the visitors, they’ve been very competitive in the league and currently occupy 9th after a credible 15 points from ten games. The prospect of fighting for European places will be a potential aim after only losing three of their opening ten Serie A games this campaign.

Our Football Match Stats, including Roma v Udinese provide further insight.

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Roma v Udinese Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Roma v Udinese
  • Serie A
  • 17:00
4 Selections @ 4.00

Over 2.5 Cards

There have been 42 cards across Roma’s Serie A games this season, which ultimately works out at an average of 4.2 cards per game, comfortably ahead of the requirement. The hosts have been booked 19 times across their ten Serie A games.

The visitors are commanding even bigger averages; they’ve picked up 24 yellow cards, which works out at an average of 2.4 per game. Those averages increase for Udinese away games, where they seem to be more cynical on the road, the average increasing to 2.8 per game. Opposition players are being booked against Udinese 1.6 times per game.

In Udinese’s two away games against similarly matched opposition to Roma, they picked up four cards against Juventus and three cards against Inter Milan. If Udinese still have a chance of picking up some points as we move into the latter stages on Sunday, there will likely be a higher tendency to be more cynical or employ gamesmanship.

Over 4.5 Roma Corners

Roma have been posting very strong corner averages in home games this season; they’re currently averaging 6.57 corners at the Stadio Olimpico across Serie A and Champions League fixtures. Difficult home games against good quality opposition in the shape of Bologna and Inter Milan brought those averages down, the only two games where they haven’t had over 4.5 corners.

Udinese have faced both Juventus and Inter Milan so far this season in away matches; they conceded eight corners against Juventus and 13 corners against Inter Milan. There’s clearly a tendency to concede a sizable number of corners against good-quality opposition. It is admittedly a small sample size, though.

After the disappointing defeat against AC Milan last week, there should be a real urgency for Roma to get on the front foot and start the game quickly. This is a hallmark of a Gasperini team; they are often aggressive from the off and play an attacking brand of football.

Bryan Cristante to have 2+ Shots

Last season, Cristante was averaging 1.34 shots per 90 in Serie A. This season, he’s averaging 2.03 shots per 90. This is also a decent sample size of game time that accounts for 842 minutes of football.

Cristante has managed over 1.5 shots in each of his last four Serie A games; he also managed three shots against Rangers on Thursday night in the Europa League. Given Roma’s home advantage, there should be extra reason to get on the front foot early doors, and this probably improves the likelihood of Cristante pulling the trigger and getting forward.

Nicolo Zaniolo to have 1+ Shots on Target

Very straightforward selection here, surprised it’s not a shorter price. Zaniolo is currently racking up a very big average of 1.34 shots on target per 90. Recent numbers bode very well; he’s managed to have five shots on target in his last five Serie A appearances, including three last time out against Atalanta

Accounting for the way Roma play, you feel Udinese’s best chances will come on the counter attack, and that always opens up the shot market for opposition attacking players as they get time and space in the attacking third of the pitch. One of Roma’s biggest deficiencies is defending counter attacks, it’s a big source of joy for opposition teams.

Given Zaniolo’s shooting averages across the season so far, compounded by Roma’s defensive weaknesses, Zaniolo over 0.5 shots on target is a very logical play; I would have expected a much shorter price on this one.

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📈 Roma v Udinese Form & Tactics

Plenty of excitement came with the arrival of Gian Piero Gasperini after nine glorious years at Atalanta, where he transformed the fortunes of the club. While Roma started the season in positive fashion after picking up 15 points from their first six games, things have started to unravel slightly after defeats to title rivals and some poor defeats in the Europa League.

Roma still sit 4th in the league, just 1 point off the top, with a game in hand, there’s still heaps of room for optimism. However, there have been teething issues for Gasperini; performances on the pitch haven’t been reflective of their league position. Roma currently sit 9th in the OptaAnalyst xG table, picking up 6 more points than expected, with a fairly significant overperformance on both xGF and xGA.

Udinese are enjoying a solid start to the campaign after finishing in 12th last season. With two out of their three defeats coming against high-quality sides in the shape of AC Milan and Juventus, there’s clearly an ability to be competitive against the teams around them and below them.

Udinese’s position in the league is fairly reflective of their performances on the pitch. Udinese occupy 11th spot in the xG table. There’s been an overperformance on xGF of 2.1 goals, while an underperformance on xGA of 3.3 goals. The data suggests Udinese have only been slightly worse than their 9th position in the league table.


📔 Roma v Udinese Formation & Team News

Roma have generally employed a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 formation this season. Gasperi demands high fitness levels from his players; they adopt a very aggressive off-the-ball press to try and win the ball back quickly. Wing-backs are a fundamental part of the system offensively, they often join the attack to pin back the opposition and overwhelm them in wide areas.

Given the big stylistic changes to the previous regime, there have been some teething issues, and this is why teams are often exploiting Roma on the counter attack. The home side are suffering from some injuries in attacking areas, with Leon Bailey, Paulo Dybala, Edoardo Bove, and Evan Ferguson all injured. Angelino is a question mark following a bout of illness.

Udinese have adopted a 3-5-2 this season. There’s an emphasis on being passive off the ball and soaking up spells of pressure, then striking on the counter attack when the opportunity arises. Udinese’s build-up is fast and direct, often utilising long passes and long through balls for team mates to run onto, while a target man is typically deployed to link play between the attack and midfield.

Keinan Davis often provides the role of target man, but he’s currently an injury question mark ahead of the game on Sunday. The only other Udinese absentee is Thomas Kristensen.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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