Los Angeles FC v LA Galaxy

The second MLS ‘El Trafico’ of the season takes place in the early hours of Saturday morning and it might be the most eagerly anticipated Los Angeles derby there has been as Los Angeles FC welcome rivals LA Galaxy to the Banc of California Stadium. 

The reason for the anticipation is quite simple. This is the first time Gareth Bale will be available for the home side and so all eyes will be on the team sheet that Steve Cherundolo puts in to see if the former Real Madrid star is named on it. Giorgio Chiellini is another who becomes available here. 

LAFC were flying without Bale but his influence on the squad could just inspire the home side to bigger and better things, and might even take the likes of Carlos Vela and Cristian Arango to a new level. 

This is always a keenly fought match and with the Galaxy buoyed by their emphatic win in midweek I’m not expecting any different here. The key to that Galaxy win over Montreal was that Greg Vanney finally started Dejan Joveljic and although suspensions forced his hand he surely can’t go back on that and leave his form man out now. 

This is a fixture synonymous with goals and it would be a huge surprise if this match doesn’t follow suit. El Traficos at this venue in the past have seen scores of 2-2, 3-3, 5-3 and 6-2 and with both teams in good shape going into this one I expect the trend of goals to continue.

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Vancouver Whitecaps v Minnesota United

The Vancouver Whitecaps have been one of Major League Soccer’s best home sides since Covid-19 restrictions eased enough that they could return home to BC Place from their exile in the States midway through the 2021 season.

The Whitecaps have won five of nine at home this season, and dating back further have taken 3 points on 11 of 19 occasions since their return. Additionally, the Whitecaps are a materially improved side from their early 2022 struggles. Brian White and Ryan Gauld have regained full fitness. New addition Andres Cubas is fitting nicely into his defensive midfield role and contributed a stylish match-winner last weekend in a 1-0 victory over a rotated LAFC side.

Minnesota United are on a nice run of their own, with consecutive victories away to the LA Galaxy and then home to Real Salt Lake. But it’s one-dimensional, with Emanuel Reynoso scoring two goals in each game. The former Boca Juniors man is talented. But at his core he’s a playmaker more than a scorer. And the Loons’ central problem is still the same despite this respite — not enough end product on the other end of Reynoso’s service.

Minnesota have also lost five of nine, and two of their three away wins came against opponents who were having pronounced home struggles. There are more glamorous sides than the Whitecaps, but they continue to be deceptively difficult to see off at home. In a league where even the average MLS away team wins just about half the time, they’re good value to pick up three points here.

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New York City FC v New England Revolution

Rivalry week in the MLS continues later on Saturday when the champions New York City FC are on show against the current holders of the Supporters Shield in the form of the New England Revolution. 

These are two of the better sides in the Eastern Conference and this feels like a big match as NYCFC look to re-establish themselves under Nick Cushing. They will be reeling from conceding a late equaliser to Atlanta United last time out and are now without a win in four matches. 

The Revolution had a sticky start to the season but they are in good form now and are on a run of 10 matches unbeaten in MLS. Their slow start to the campaign was probably expected given that there is usually a hangover when a side dominates the regular season but falls flat in the play-offs as the Revs did last term. They were also having to get around losing a couple of key players too. 

Those issues have been dealt with though and it is clear that New England have found a way to play again. One legacy of the Ronny Deila departure so far is that New York City have fallen apart defensively which encourages me to think there will be goals in this match. 

NYC have leaked eight goals in their last three games while despite their positive run, New England have just one clean sheet in their last nine. I like over 2.5 goals here.

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Atlanta United v Austin FC

Atlanta United have played some of the more entertaining matches at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2022, and there’s still the sense their best attacking days could be ahead of them.

Josef Martinez — who tore his ACL in 2020 and had an arthroscopic knee surgery earlier this season — has yet to regain the 2017 to 2019 form that has made him the club’s all-time leading scorer. But maybe he’s close after goals in his last two times out and three of the last four. Behind him, the midfield tandem of Marcelino Moreno and Thiago Almada are beginning to understand each other better. And late in games, Dominic Dwyer is having a rebirth as arguably the MLS’ best supersub.

It’s a good thing all this is happening for Gonzalo Pineda because his team may need to keep outsourcing opponents to earn points. Box-to-box midfielder Emerson Hyndman is the latest addition to an injury list that already includes several key defensive pieces, and that could be hard to do against Austin, which recently became the first team in MLS history to earn at least one point from three straight games in which they conceded the first two goals.

In the last of those, a rousing 3-2 comeback win over Colorado, Sebastian Driussi continued his MVP-caliber season with a leveler for his 10th of the campaign. Maxi Urruti’s winner was his sixth of the year.

With all this attacking talent — and some suspect defenses on both sides — it’s a good spot for an aggressive wager on the total going over 3.5 goals. The trend has hit in half of Atlanta’s eight home matches and four of Austin’s 10 away fixtures. However if you’re looking for something on the safer side, then over 2.5 goals is a great shout.

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CF Montreal v Sporting Kansas City

CF Montreal are going to be without attacking midfielder Djordje Mihailovic longer than they first thought, but that doesn’t appear to have changed their tactical approach all that much.

Mihailovic was mounting an MVP case before suffering an ankle injury in Montreal’s final match in May. This week, reports emerged that he had suffered a setback in a recovery that was initially only expected to be a few weeks. No matter. Montreal have remained on the front foot under second-year boss Wilfried Nancy. It hasn’t always panned out — as evidenced by 4-0 defeats to Toronto FC in the Canadian Championship semifinals and to the LA Galaxy in the league on Monday night. But it has been good enough to get some good results, including during an impressive 2-1 win at Seattle two matches ago.

Sporting Kansas City might have designs on keeping the game tight as they desperately search for results to revive their season. But if and when SKC fall behind, they don’t have enough offensive threats to keep counterattacking sides honest, nor enough athleticism at the back to defend such counters competently.

That’s the biggest impact of spending the entire season managing unplanned injury absences for striker Alan Pulido and midfielder Gadi Kinda. Johnny Russell and Daniel Salloi have been doing their best as wide attackers, but they can’t keep their sides from conceding two or more.

There have been at least three goals scored in all but one Montreal home match and six of SKC’s 10 away games. Even without Mihailovic, count on that trend repeating here.

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FC Cincinnati v New York Red Bulls

The New York Red Bulls are the best away team in MLS and won five in a row on the road to begin the season. But even after their latest win, 1-0 at Sporting Kansas City last weekend, the recent form there has been regressing.

Kansas City are arguably the worst team in the league, and the Red Bulls needed an unusual goal from defender Aaron Long to earn all three points against them in an otherwise even game. Luquinhas has been a positive addition to the attack in Year 2 under Gerhard Struber. But the striking position is still wanting in the red half of New York, and has been largely bailed out by the continued excellent attacking play of Scottish Winger Lewis Morgan. He leads all RBNY players with eight goals.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati finally seem to have unlocked enigmatic Brazilian talent Brenner. The 22-year-old was the third-most expensive signing in MLS history when he arrived from Sao Paulo in 2021, but had been quiet of late until a sudden eruption for five goals in his last three games. If he can be even half of that threat consistently, Cincinnati will suddenly have one of the leagues more enviable attacking trios. Striker Brandon Vazquez is making a late bid to be considered for the American World Cup squad, and playmaker Luciano Acosta is making his own MVP case in the No. 10 role.

Cincinnati’s home form is still spotty, but has shown signs of improving even after giving back a three-goal lead in a 4-4 draw against New York City FC. And their home analytics are better than the Red Bulls’ away numbers. There’s regression due on both sides here, and signs that it has been coming. That’s why it makes sense to play Cincinnati on a draw-no-bet wager here as a home underdog.

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