There are a lot of matches in these two clubs’ recent history that have ended BTTS Yes. Starting with Norwich, they are currently on a run of seven consecutive Championship matches in which they and the opposition have both scored. Their seasonal expected goals data is 1.27xG for, and 1.69xG against per match, this indicates that enough chances are being created at both ends in Norwich matches to make BTTS a favourite.

It is a similar story for Southampton. Whilst their consecutive run is only at three, eight of Saints’ last 10 matches have seen BTTS come in. Their expected goals data is also a good pattern for BTTS. They have created 1.65xG and conceded 1.3xG.

More importantly for Saints, they have a front three in ridiculous form. Adam Armstrong has shot to the top of the goalscorer charts, Finn Azaz, and Leo Scienza have also contributed with goals and assists, and it is a tough ask to keep all three out for 90 minutes at the moment.

Corners have been priced up fairly normally here, but I don't agree with the idea that they should be. The teams here have a record of winning and conceding high averages for corners this season. Norwich matches average almost 11 corners in the Championship this term, which surely must be connected to what I was discussing in the BTTS justification, that the team is fairly attacking but open defensively as well.

When looking at solely home matches, this does drop to 9.9 corners per match, because they aren't conceding quite as many at home, the ratio is 5.4 v 4.5 corner average at Carrow Road in the league. Southampton also average over 10 corners per game in the Championship, winning 5.45 and conceding 4.6 per game, this drops slightly when playing away from home as they win a whole corner fewer when away from St. Mary's.

However, three of their last four away games have seen over 10 corners, 15 at Millwall, 13 at QPR, and 11 at Blackburn, so perhaps their upturn in form is also bringing with it more corners.

In a homage to my favourite pastry, we are going all Danish for the player angles. Schwartau was signed last summer as a promising 18-year-old and after having a year to acclimatise and develop, he has become a key player on the left of Norwich’s attack and, importantly, Clement seems to have taken a liking to him.

He has started every league game under the new boss and he has increased his shot as well. His average shot rate is 1.5 shots per 90 this season, but that has changed to 1.9 in his last 10 games. Specifically under Phillipe Clement, Schwartau has started all five, shooting twice on three of those occasions, and shooting once on the other two.

Southampton have conceded a lot of shots away from home. They have averaged 13.4 shots against this season, and despite their improvement, they have conceded 21 shots last away game, and then 12, 18, 18, and 13 in their last five away games. This means that Schwartau should have chances to get shots away.

This looks a generous price for the Danish central midfielder to be fouled. He is averaging 2.06 fouls drawn per 90 minutes this season, which is an unusually high average, and equal with Kenny McLean for the highest average fouls drawn figure of players who are regular starters for Norwich. Under Phillipe Clement, this has gone up to 3.15 fouls drawn per 90.

Despite this, Mattsson is one of the longest priced players for a foul against him. His recent record for being fouled in his last three matches is twice v Sheffield United last time, three times v Watford, and five times v QPR.

Potential direct opponents are Flynn Downes (2.14 fouls per 90) and Casper Jander (1.23 fouls per 90), who are both in the team primarily to control the game and win the ball back in midfield.