Our EFL experts are on fire at the moment and their Saturday acca landed at huge odds of 40/1, and coming just one goal off of an enormous 59/1 winner. They have formulated an angle of attack in the shape of a treble that looks into some goals-based selections along with a match odds play.
Five teams who will be looking to assert themselves in the Championship promotion race are in action as we cover Blackburn Rovers v Sunderland, Norwich City v Leicester City and Millwall hosting relegation-battling Rotherham United.
We also have a Champions League accumulator available on Wednesday’s fixtures that you can check out as well if you’re also keeping up-to-date with matchday 1 of the competition.
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Wednesday’s EFL Treble Tips
Blackburn Rovers v Sunderland
Another match, another set of big chances missed for Blackburn Rovers. The post-match statistical analysis tells us that Jon Dahl Tomasson’s men created four big chances against Middlesbrough on Saturday, and missed them all.
They still took the three points after Sammie Szmodics found the net twice from similar positions on the right of the D outside the box. Szmodics is Rovers’ main goal threat at the moment, and should be given some respect in those markets, but Rovers are potentially another serious goal threat away from being a top-end Championship team.
The number of chances they are creating, and the quality of those chances are amongst the best in the division. Blackburn currently sit in third just in behind Norwich and Ipswich for xG created in the six matches so far. However, they have also been quite leaky defensively, which means that Rovers are responsible for the most entertaining matches in the league in terms of the chances created and conceded, 19.7 xG total across six matches equates to 3.28 total xG per match.
Sunderland have had their much reported problems with their forwards, but the brand of football that the Black Cats have been able to produce has been pretty thrilling. Indeed, Tony Mowbray’s team sit at the very top of the Championship at this early stage for xG difference. This means that they have the biggest differential between the chances they create and the ones they concede, at the moment this is running at +0.84 xG per match in their favour.
All of this makes the over 2.5 goals market the play in this one.
Millwall v Rotherham United
It is very, very early in the season but it feels like this match is a must not lose for both teams, certainly for the manager who does end up on the losing side.
The Millwall faithful have Gary Rowett firmly in their sights after being outclassed by Leeds at the weekend. It is a case of concerns over stagnation and believing that a manager has taken the club as far as they can after almost four years of Rowett’s stewardship.
However, one could easily argue that progress has been made steadily during that time. Last year’s near miss on the play-offs, literally one half of football away from the achievement, both represents that improvement whilst simultaneously providing the bullets for fans to shoot at Rowett.
Over the four years Rowett’s Millwall have consistently picked up three points in matches such as this one. When they have really needed it, at home, to opposition that they are supposed to beat.
Matt Taylor has only had a year in charge at Rotherham, but the signs aren’t positive so far this season. Whilst the squad, on paper, looks stronger than Rotherham have had for some time, the performances haven’t been there for the Millers.
Bottom of the Championship table for xG created and xG difference, Rotherham have struggled for any kind of forward momentum. It is difficult to see where the inspiration will come from against a team that could have so much to play for and are generally well known for their defensive organisation, especially at home.
Jordan Hugill is leading the line as well as he can, but he needs a more regular supply to be a goal threat. That is where Rotherham are struggling at the moment, having lost Chiedozie Ogbene to Luton, Dan Barlaser to Middlesbrough, and their loanees from last season, it seems to have had an effect. Tariqe Fosu made a difference last season, and is still a free agent, one wonders whether a move may be made for the winger sooner or later.
Millwall to emerge victorious here at odds of 1.67 appeals.
Norwich City v Leicester City
Two of the promotion favourites clash at Carrow Road, with both teams displaying some good early season form.
The home side are top of the league for xG created, with 11.6 xG after six games, and they have notched at least once in every match this season. In terms of our bet for this fixture it is also relevant that Leicester City have also scored in every away game so far. The Foxes also sit high in xG created standings with 10.2 xG.
Importantly though, neither team has been watertight going the other way with both teams conceding over 1 xG per match. Leicester gave the ball away in dangerous areas against Southampton and made individual errors as well, Callum Doyle making the error leading to Saints’ goal on Friday.
Norwich didn’t put in their most convincing performance last time out against Stoke, but still had enough chances to get themselves ahead, having already spurned a couple of decent opportunities before the goal itself. Indeed, they created three big chances in the match and only took one of them.
Both Norwich and Leicester have created at least one big chance in every Championship match this season so far. Leicester ran riot against Southampton on Friday night, creating seven big chances in total and generating over 4 xG. It must be said though that they were helped tremendously by the ineptitude of the Southampton game plan and execution thereof.
It is unlikely that Norwich will be quite as generous with their play as Southampton were, but at the same time, Norwich also like to play their football from deep and Leicester showed a great aptitude for being able to apply the pressure to that system on Friday.
The Foxes will have their tails up and feel likely to breach the Canaries at some stage. However, Norwich are flying as well so it should be a good game on Sky, and one that we fancy to feature goals for both sides.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer
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