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Wolves v Burnley Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Wolves v Burnley Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 24 October, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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In a hotly anticipated relegation clash, Wolves host Burnley at Molineux. Even at this early point in the season, it looks like a vital six pointer. Wolves are in a world of trouble, currently languishing in 20th place, acquiring just two points all season. The home side are five points behind 17th placed Burnley, who will be eager to put some daylight between them and the three sides below them. There’s a huge amount at stake for this encounter and it should make for fascinating viewing.

These Wolves v Burnley Betting Stats also offer further insight ahead of Saturday's clash.

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  • Wolves v Burnley
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 3.15

Over 2.5 Cards

Taking into account the heavy importance of this game, this has the potential to be a very feisty match. Both sides will be doing everything in their ability to get a favourable result, and that ‘win at all costs’ mentality may command a certain level of tenacity and gamesmanship on the pitch.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either side wasting time in the latter stages, particularly if they are winning. There were numerous occasions last season where Wolves let the emotions get the better of them in key games, and this resulted in disciplinary issues on the pitch.

There will be lots of emotion in the stands at the weekend, with the Wolves supporters understanding the significance of a Wolves win, and this may lead to a very tense and volatile atmosphere on the pitch where full blooded challenges or cynical fouls are a requirement of winning the game.

Joao Gomes to Commit 2+ Fouls

The tough tackling and tenacious Gomes is a vital cog in the heart of midfield, a crucial element of the team when it comes to breaking up play and providing defensive solidity. Gomes is not someone that shies away from a challenge or cynical intervention when necessary.

He is currently averaging 2.4 fouls per game in the Premier League this season. These types of numbers have remained fairly consistent across his whole Wolves career, and further bolsters the logic here.

As previously covered, it’s a high stakes fixture, and there will probably be an added determination and aggression about Gomes’ game at the weekend, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pick up a yellow card.

Gomes has also averaged around three tackles per game across his Wolves career, invariably someone that attempts a high number of tackles is likely to make fouls from time to time, it simply comes with the territory.

Lesley Ugochukwu to be Fouled 1+ Times

Ugochukwu has won six fouls across his four starts in the Premier League this season (1.46 per 90), with the former Chelsea player taking up an advanced role in recent weeks.

This has resulted in Ugochukwu scoring in each of his last two appearances for Burnley, also winning two fouls across these games, which both came last time out in Burnley’s 2-0 win over Leeds.

Ugochukwu will be up against a combative Wolves midfield here, with his more advanced role pitting him up against Joao Gomes. Gomes has committed 19 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this season (2.52 per 90) and is likely to engage in multiple duels with Ugochukwu.

Wolves have been really frustrated in the early weeks of the season which has resulted in them committing the second most fouls in the league so far this term (13.5 per game).

Wolves 1+ Goals

Burnley may have won a vital relegation clash against Leeds last week, but the underlying defensive metrics don’t cover them in glory. Despite winning the game 2-0, they still conceded a hefty 2.62 xG. Now understandably game state will have influenced those numbers, especially because they were sitting on a lead for large periods. Burnley have only played out one game this season where they conceded below 1.00 xG, and that was a home match against Sunderland which they won 2-0.

Wolves have admittedly struggled to find the net this campaign, but still managed to score in every home game barring Manchester City on the opening day. Even in defeat to Sunderland last week, they mustered 16 shots and had the better of the xG contest. Statistically speaking, Burnley currently sit bottom of the league for xGA, while Wolves are underperforming their xGF by 2.0 goals.

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📈 Wolves v Burnley Form & Tactics

After securing survival last season under the stewardship of Vitor Pereira, despite an unbelievably poor start to the campaign which saw Gary O’Neil dismissed, Vitor Pereira was rewarded with a new three-year contract in the summer. However, it’s been a sorry start to this current campaign, and there’s a thick cloud of doom enveloping the club. There have been warning signs for a good few years now.

Wolves remain winless in the Premier League this season, losing six games and drawing two of them. Recent consecutive draws against Spurs and Brighton may provide some optimism on the horizon, but the 2-0 defeat to Sunderland was a real sucker punch.

The data suggests Wolves haven’t been as bad as the league table implies, they currently sit 14th in the xG table, and have won the xG battle against opposition in three matches this season. The underlying data may provide a shred of comfort to latch onto, but the more pressing concern will be picking up a first win at the weekend.

Burnley have become a perennial yo-yo team in recent years, they’ve been unable to reach the heights of Sean Dyche’s magnificent long tenure at the club. Solidifying in the Premier League has become notoriously difficult for numerous clubs in the modern era, not just Burnley.

There’s some room for hope though, Burnley are sitting 17th in the league after picking up two wins and one draw from their first eight games. Crucially, they are showing the ability to compete at this level, whether they can sustain that over the duration of the season is another question altogether.

Scott Parker’s Championship winning team was built on a magnificent defensive structure, and while they haven’t been able to replicate that success in the Premier League, it’s still helping them grind out results. However, they are sitting 20th in the xG table, and perhaps more worryingly have only picked up 4.7 xPTS. The Premier League is a very unforgiving place, but they remain competitive for the time being.


📔 Wolves v Burnley Formation & Team News

Wolves were adopting a 3-4-3 formation in the early parts of the season, but have since switched to a 4-3-3 in their last two games against Brighton and Sunderland. There’s a reliance on Larsen for goals, but he’s yet to find the net this season and this is a recurring issue for them. Joao Gomes and Andre provide the defensive steel in midfield, while there’s a reliance on Hugo Bueno to be progressive and provide attacking ammunition from left-back.

Wolves are currently missing Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, Hwang Hee-Chan and Leon Chiwome. With the absence of Hwang there’s a good chance Rodrigo Gomes will start here.

Burnley have tried to be adaptable with their formation this season and switch depending on the opposition, they often alternate between a 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Jaidon Antony provides the creativity and goal threat from wide areas, he’s managed 1 assist and 4 goals so far this season. Josh Cullen pulls the strings in midfield and looks to play the progressive key passes in the final third, he’s enjoying a slightly more attacking role this season.

Burnley are currently missing Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, and Lyle Foster. Foster is a recent absentee after suffering a dead leg, Zian Flemming is expected to start against Wolves, just as he did against Leeds last week.


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