Wolves are heavy favourites here, and unsurprisingly so. Burnley’s points this season have, with the exception of a 1-1 draw at the City Ground come against the other newly-promoted sides.

Gary O’Neil’s side have a very good home record so far in 2023/24 when considering the strength of their opponents. They have had six home games and all six have been against sides that finished in last season’s top eight.

In four games against Man City, Villa, Newcastle, and Spurs (their last four home games) they are unbeaten, having taken maximum points against both City and Spurs.

Burnley meanwhile have just a win at Luton and the draw at Forest to show for their six away games to date, having been comfortably beaten by Brentford, Newcastle and Arsenal, whilst the side sitting just above the bottom four, Bournemouth also dispatched the Clarets 2-1.

Vincent Kompany’s side rarely get blown away by their opponents, but they concede far too many chances and their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer massively limits them in games that may otherwise be winnable. Anything other than a Wolves win would be quite a surprise here.

Predictions:

🏆 Wolves to win @ 1.83

Gary O’Neil’s side are not the most prolific, but they spread their goals across games well. They have bagged at least one in every game since drawing a blank in their opening league fixture at Old Trafford in August.

They have also proven to have a leaky defence, having kept just one clean sheet all season long, against Everton, also way back in August. They have conceded two or more goals in four of their last five games, including two goals at Bramall Lane in their 2-1 defeat to Sheffield United.

They have generally been better at home though, holding three of their last four visiting sides to just a solitary goal, the exception being Newcastle who found the net twice in their 2-2 draw.

Burnley have been shutout much more by comparison, but perhaps less than you would imagine, with Vincent Kompany’s young side having scored in nine of their 14 league games.

They have seen three or more goals scored in six of their last seven Premier League games, the exception being a 2-0 loss to Palace. Wolves have seen this line hit in seven of their last eight, only missing out in their 1-1 draw with Villa.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75

🥅 Both teams to score @ 1.65

There is nice value to be found on Burnley’s Jay Rodriguez.

The 34-year-old local lad has now scored in two games running having failed to find the net in any of his first 10 games this season and has proved much more effective since nailing down a starting spot, starting five games in a row.

Rodriguez has notched at least one shot on target in each of these four games and has taken two or more shots in three of his last four. This includes two shots on target away at Arsenal, so it cannot be put down to a run of easier games. The Englishman is also on penalties, always a nice bonus when backing a player for shots.

For the hosts, Matheus Cunha looks to be where the smart money is. The Brazilian’s shooting numbers have been off the charts in recent weeks, racking up 18 shots in his last six Wolves starts, an average of three per game.

Across home games in this time he has averaged 3.5 shots per game and has notched at least one shot on target in five of his last six starts, racking up two or more in three of these six.

Predictions:

🚀 Jay Rodriguez to have 2+ shots @ 1.40

🎯 Jay Rodriguez to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.83

🎯 Matheus Cunha to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.50

🎯 Matheus Cunha to have 2+ shots on target @ 3.20